Using Probabilistic Terrorism Risk Modeling for Regulatory Benefit-Cost Analysis: Application to the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative in the Land Environment

This article presents a framework for using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling in regulatory analysis. We demonstrate the framework with an example application involving a regulation under consideration, the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative for the Land Environment, (WHTI‐L). First, we estimate annualized loss from terrorist attacks with the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Probabilistic Terrorism Model. We then estimate the critical risk reduction, which is the risk‐reducing effectiveness of WHTI‐L needed for its benefit, in terms of reduced terrorism loss in the United States, to exceed its cost. Our analysis indicates that the critical risk reduction depends strongly not only on uncertainties in the terrorism risk level, but also on uncertainty in the cost of regulation and how casualties are monetized. For a terrorism risk level based on the RMS standard risk estimate, the baseline regulatory cost estimate for WHTI‐L, and a range of casualty cost estimates based on the willingness‐to‐pay approach, our estimate for the expected annualized loss from terrorism ranges from $2.7 billion to $5.2 billion. For this range in annualized loss, the critical risk reduction for WHTI‐L ranges from 7% to 13%. Basing results on a lower risk level that results in halving the annualized terrorism loss would double the critical risk reduction (14–26%), and basing the results on a higher risk level that results in a doubling of the annualized terrorism loss would cut the critical risk reduction in half (3.5–6.6%). Ideally, decisions about terrorism security regulations and policies would be informed by true benefit‐cost analyses in which the estimated benefits are compared to costs. Such analyses for terrorism security efforts face substantial impediments stemming from the great uncertainty in the terrorist threat and the very low recurrence interval for large attacks. Several approaches can be used to estimate how a terrorism security program or regulation reduces the distribution of risks it is intended to manage. But, continued research to develop additional tools and data is necessary to support application of these approaches. These include refinement of models and simulations, engagement of subject matter experts, implementation of program evaluation, and estimating the costs of casualties from terrorism events.     

报业会计信息系统安全部分控制

报业会计电算化的系统安全,是报业会计信息系统的安全会计电算化的灵魂和核心,而内部控制则是保障报业会计电算化系统安全的一项重要工作。本文从报业会计电算化工作的实际出发,针对目前报业会计电算化应用的现状,结合报业会计电算化的特点和管理要求,阐述了报业会计电算化系统安全内部控制问题的必要性,并提出了如何加强报业会计电算化信息系统安全,有效进行内部控制的一些措施和办法。     

Forced to work and liberated from work

The work-welfare nexus is essential in all social policy regimes. The question is in what situations individuals should be entitled to social welfare benefits and in which situations they should be obliged to work. Social welfare law and administrative practices define mechanisms that separate the deserving poor from people able to work. This article analyses the functions and character of these "separation mechanisms" in Sweden during three periods in history: a) in rural society in the late 19th century; b) in industrial society during the successful years of the Swedish model from World War II until the late 1970s; and c) the present, including the period of welfare retrenchment and reconsideration since the early 1980s. The conclusion is that Swedish social policy has always been strongly work-oriented, but the specific form and content of the work ethic has varied under the influence of different ideologies and handled in different social policy institutions. Under specific conditions the work line has been either generous or restrictive and it has been based on structural attempts to improve the opportunities to work as well as on attempts to strongly pressure the individual to work. The work line of today is seen as an interesting attempt to combine an effort to create good work through improved work conditions and an effort to reinforce elements of work enforcement in the social insurance system.     

Poverty and social trends in Russia

The article describes the socioeconomic situation of the Russian population and its dynamics in 1992. The analysis is based on series of regional sociological surveys led by the All-Russian Living Standards Research Center and on official Russian statistical data. The basic unit of analysis is the family, and hence family typology approbated both in research and in practical social work is introduced. Besides describing and discussing the growing poverty tendencies in contemporary Russia, the article also contains methodological recommendations for social policy bodies and social workers on the strategy of work in social maintenance and social support of the least secure population strata.     

农民失地问题分析及对策建议

本文从六盘水失地农民的现状入手,分析失地农民的成因及存在问题,提出政府在推进工业化和城市化的过程中应坚持公平公正和群众利益至上的原则,积极推进土地产权和征地制度的创新、社会保障和就业制度的创新以及农村基层民主与法律制度的创新,给失地农民以公平的国民待遇、完整的土地财产权和自由的发展空间。     

多媒体辅助教学的优势及存在的问题

多媒体辅助教学与传统的教学模式相比,具有智能化、信息量大以及新颖性等优势。然而在实际多媒体课堂教学中还存在排斥传统的课堂教学模式,华而不实、容量过大、教师变成了放映员等问题。此外,针对上述问题提出几点建议。     

浅谈形式逻辑的普及与研究--兼论逻辑学的教学实践

随着中国高等教育的蓬勃发展,大学教育的目标追求要求对当前中国逻辑学教学的现状进行思考,针对逻辑教学与学习观念、逻辑课程规划与设置、逻辑教材建设和使用、逻辑师资培养和壮大等方面存在的问题,探索新形式下逻辑学的教学与发展,从而使高校真正担当起逻辑学普及与研究的重任。     

Is there a field of social work?: Trainees evaluating social problems and social work

My aim was to study the experiences and priorities of two age groups of social work students practicing in client-centered social work. This article is based on the research on rationality and language games in social work. The target groups of the research project as a whole were the actors: the heads and social workers or activists in public social welfare and health care agencies and institutions and in voluntary associations and action groups, and finally, two subsequent classes of students from a school of social work, during their practicing periods. This article concentrates on the trainees. At first, the trainees wrote essays and kept diaries. Secondly, they marked their standings on graphs visualizing different types of information contents and social relation structures. Thirdly, they made their choices of reasons for and solutions to social problems on a problem wheel. The trainees' study, using different data gathering techniques, partly confirms the results of the research of the other actor groups, in which the data were derived using questionnaires and interviews. The trainees' study shows variation in the respondents' priorities within and between specified social problem categories. Qualitatively analyzed, however, the characterizations of social work, both those who currently act in and those aiming to enter this field, resemble one another.     

强对抗是提高中国男篮水平的关键

通过对中国国家男队在第 2 6届、2 7届奥运会和 2 0 0 1— 2 0 0 2CBA篮球联赛冠军争夺比赛中进行了较为系统的研究 ,从中发现缺乏对抗性是当前中国篮球运动存在的主要问题 ,从而提出我们近一个时期要解决的主要问题是加强队员在对抗条件下技战术的发挥     

论电话监听的合理性及其限度

电话监听是技术侦查手段的一种。适当运用电话监听,能够提高对抗犯罪的效能。然而,电话监听具有对公民隐私权、言论自由权等权利造成侵害的很大的危险性。因此,既要认识到其合理性,又要对其适用确定必要的限度,并在运用过程中,保障犯罪嫌疑人、被告人的基本人权和诉讼权利。