关于现代操作风险度量方法的适用性研究

近年来,国际银行业在操作风险度量和管理领域都取得了突破性进展,创立了许多先进的操作风险度量方法。本文在对这些方法进行分析评价的基础上指出,将各个方法的特点与国有商业银行自身操作风险的实际状况相结合是选择度量方法的立足点,现阶段内部度量法是较为适宜的方法,同时要做好损失数据的采集工作,并将操作风险度量方法与相应的风险管理工具结合起来进行分析研究。     

运筹学在经济领域中的应用

本文主要分析了运筹学的历史由来、在经济领域中的应用及展望,概述了运筹学在经济中的重要作用。     

形象广告何以重塑形象--对《人民日报》等四家国家级媒体取消形象广告的理论思考

形象广告是借助大众传播媒介所进行的一种广告信息的沟通活动,由于其运作过程存在许多错误,引发了强烈的舆论抨击.文章通过对<人民日报>、<光明日报>、<经济日报>和新华社合力围剿形象广告这一事件所进行的理论思考指出:形象广告具有独特的传播效果,不应停止刊登此类广告,而应制定科学规范的运作原则,使形象广告走上健康发展之路.     

我国企业应用作业成本法的思路探讨

作业成本法是一种先进的成本计算和管理方法。日益激烈的市场竞争形成对企业应用作业成本法的强大外部压力,其最终将转变成企业自觉应用作业成本法的内在动力。特别是随着我国市场机制的完善和现代企业制度的建立,必将促使更多的企业运用作业成本法。本文就我国企业应用作业成本法的现实基础、指导思想和基本模式等问题进行了探讨。     

Some finite sample properties of generalized ridge regression estimators

In this paper we study the mean square error properties of the generalized ridge estimator. We obtain the exact and the approximate bias and the mean square error of the operational generalized ridge estimator in terms of G( ) functions. We show, among other things, that the operational generalized ridge estimator does not dominate the ordinary least squares estimator up to a certain order of approximation. Finally, we note that the iterative procedures to obtain coverging ridge estimators should be used with caution.     

制度的实施收益、实施成本和维持成本

制度的实施收益指它在实施中给个人带来的各种利益和效用,制度的实施成本指它在实施中给个人造成的各种损失或负效用.制度的维持成本则指实施该制度所引致的各种费用,包括纯粹的维持成本和防止成本.决定制度的实施收益、实施成本的主要因素为客观境况集合,价值观念和知识素质.制度的实施收益、实施成本在短期和长期中是不同的,其原因有适应过程,"花室"效应和一些因素的积累变化等等.维持成本的决定因素在于,制度本身的性质是否具有帕累托性质,是正式的还是非正式的;以及与其他制度的关系是互相匹配的还是不匹配的,以及制度的受益面和受损面之间的关系等.     

Practical usage of O'Brien's OLS and GLS statistics in clinical trials

Multivariate techniques of O'Brien's OLS and GLS statistics are discussed in the context of their application in clinical trials. We introduce the concept of an operational effect size and illustrate its use to evaluate power. An extension describing how to handle covariates and missing data is developed in the context of Mixed models. This extension allowing adjustment for covariates is easily programmed in any statistical package including SAS. Monte Carlo simulation is used for a number of different sample sizes to compare the actual size and power of the tests based on O'Brien's OLS and GLS statistics.     

人与环境匹配:一个基于员工-组织复合型视角的模型

人与环境匹配(P-E fit)的纷繁概念和理论导致匹配的评价颇为模糊,这也给理论研究和管理实践造成了困扰。整理述评了P-E fit的不同概念定义和操作定义,从员工视角和组织视角分析整理了P-E fit各种理论,提出了十个相关命题,构建了一个基于员工-组织复合型视角的P-E fit综合评价模型。此模型不仅可有效测量P-E fit,而且是一个可操作性强的人力资源管理实践模型。     

The Implications of Utilizing Market Information and Adopting Agricultural Advice for Farmers in Developing Economies

To alleviate poverty in developing countries, governments and non‐governmental organizations disseminate two types of information: (i) agricultural advice to enable farmers to improve their operations (cost reduction, quality improvement, and process yield increase); and (ii) market information about future price/demand to enable farmers to make better production planning decisions. This information is usually disseminated free of charge. While farmers can use the market information to improve their production plans without incurring any (significant) cost, adopting agricultural advice to improve operations requires upfront investment, for example, equipment, fertilizers, pesticides, and higher quality seeds. In this study, we examine whether farmers should use market information to improve their production plans (or adopt agricultural advice to improve their operations) when they engage in Cournot competition under both uncertain market demand and uncertain process yield. Our analysis indicates that both farmers will use the market information to improve their profits in equilibrium. Hence, relative to the base case in which market information is not available, the provision of market information can improve the farmers' total welfare (i.e., total profit for both farmers). Moreover, when the underlying process yield is highly uncertain or when the products are highly heterogeneous, the provision of market information is welfare‐maximizing in the sense that the maximum total welfare of farmers is attained when both farmers utilize market information in equilibrium. Furthermore, in equilibrium, whether a farmer adopts the agricultural advice depends on the size of the requisite upfront investment. More importantly, we show that agricultural advice is not always welfare improving unless the upfront investment is sufficiently low. This result implies that to improve farmers' welfare, governments should consider offering farmer subsidies.     

Capacity Planning with Financial and Operational Hedging in Low‐Cost Countries

The authors of this article outline a capacity planning problem in which a risk‐averse firm reserves capacities with potential suppliers that are located in multiple low‐cost countries. While demand is uncertain, the firm also faces multi‐country foreign currency exposures. This study develops a mean‐variance model that maximizes the firm's optimal utility and derives optimal utility and optimal decisions in capacity and financial hedging size. The authors show that when demand and exchange rate risks are perfectly correlated, a risk‐averse firm, by using financial hedging, will achieve the same optimal utility as a risk‐neutral firm. In this study as well, a special case is examined regarding two suppliers in China and Vietnam. The results show that if a single supplier is contracted, financial hedging most benefits the highly risk‐averse firm when the demand and exchange rate are highly negatively related. When only one hedge is used, financial hedging dominates operational hedging only when the firm is very risk averse and the correlation between the two exchange rates have become positive. With both theoretical and numerical results, this study concludes that the two hedges are strategic tools and interact each other to maximize the optimal utility.