中国古代早期工匠神话解析

中国早期工匠神话按其产生的时间划分,可归为原始工匠神话和文明社会工匠神话两类.原始工匠神话往往置于神灵谱系中,把古代先民的发明创造编排成人类自身繁衍的谱系,采用的是象征性的表述方式.工匠神的名称各异,或是表示发明创造过程,或是描写器物形态,或是展现制造器物的工艺,需要运用古文字研究成果加以破译.文明社会的工匠神话,或是因能工巧匠的知名度而生成,或是因某种器物的奇异而出现,对人的崇拜和器物的崇拜联结在一起,呈现出多种形式.文明社会的工匠神话对原始工匠神话多有超越,但有时又出现返祖现象.     

NUSAP Method for Evaluating the Data Quality in a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Model for Salmonella in the Pork Production Chain

The numeral unit spread assessment pedigree (NUSAP) system was implemented to evaluate the quality of input parameters in a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model for Salmonella spp. in minced pork meat. The input parameters were grouped according to four successive exposure pathways: (1) primary production (2) transport, holding, and slaughterhouse, (3) postprocessing, distribution, and storage, and (4) preparation and consumption. An inventory of 101 potential input parameters was used for building the QMRA model. The characteristics of each parameter were defined using a standardized procedure to assess (1) the source of information, (2) the sampling methodology and sample size, and (3) the distributional properties of the estimate. Each parameter was scored by a panel of experts using a pedigree matrix containing four criteria (proxy, empirical basis, method, and validation) to assess the quality, and this was graphically represented by means of kite diagrams. The parameters obtained significantly lower scores for the validation criterion as compared with the other criteria. Overall strengths of parameters related to the primary production module were significantly stronger compared to the other modules (the transport, holding, and slaughterhouse module, the processing, distribution, and storage module, and the preparation and consumption module). The pedigree assessment contributed to select 20 parameters, which were subsequently introduced in the QMRA model. The NUSAP methodology and kite diagrams are objective tools to discuss and visualize the quality of the parameters in a structured way. These two tools can be used in the selection procedure of input parameters for a QMRA, and can lead to a more transparent quality assurance in the QMRA.     

论徽州宗族的繁荣

宋元以来,特别是明清时期,徽州宗族特别繁荣,徽州成为中国宗族制度一个十分典型的地区。徽州宗族的繁荣主要表现在哪些方面呢？一、祠堂建设;二、族谱修纂;三、族田设置;四、宗族活动。许多世家大族花费巨额财富,大建祠堂,大修族谱,大置族田,大搞宗族活动,充分地表现了徽州宗族的繁荣。     

穿越时空的理论旅行——评佩里·安德森力作《思想的谱系：西方思潮左与右》

作为英国当代著名的马克思主义理论家、思想史家和西方左翼理论家,佩里.安德森在其著作《思想的谱系——西方思潮左与右》中,对当代西方思想界左中右三翼的主要代表人物及作品进行了批判性解读:既有对右翼的辛辣批评,又有对中左翼思想和学术肯定之下的遗憾。这些理论评说,正是佩里.安德森的个性和学术风格的必然体现。然笔战之余,亦有佩里.安德森对《伦敦书评》的回忆和自己对父亲的深切怀念,其文笔之优美和感情之细腻,在佩氏其他学术著述中是难得一见的。     

耶律阿保机对世选制的调整与利用

阿保机时代是契丹社会大变革的时代,阿保机变革旧制的一个内容就是对传统世选制的改造。经过他的努力,从理论意义上实现了契丹可汗世选向皇位世袭的转变,也对官吏的世选作了重大的调整。值得重视的是,阿保机的政治智慧在变革世选制过程中有所体现。     

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for family trees using a parallel processor

A 1024 CPU parallel computer is used to obtain simulated genotypes in the Tristan da Cunha pedigree using random local updating methods. A four-colour theorem is invoked to justify simultaneous updating. Multiple copies of the program are run simultaneously. These results are used to infer the source of the B allele of the ABO blood group that is present in the population.     

A method for simulating familial disease data with variable age at onset and genetic and environmental effects

The field of genetic epidemiology is growing rapidly with the realization that many important diseases are influenced by both genetic and environmental factors. For this reason, pedigree data are becoming increasingly valuable as a means of studying patterns of disease occurrence. Analysis of pedigree data is complicated by the lack of independence among family members and by the non-random sampling schemes used to ascertain families. An additional complicating factor is the variability in age at disease onset from one person to another. In developing statistical methods for analysing pedigree data, analytic results are often intractable, making simulation studies imperative for assessing the performance of proposed methods and estimators. In this paper, an algorithm is presented for simulating disease data in pedigrees, incorporating variable age at onset and genetic and environmental effects. Computational formulas are developed in the context of a proportional hazards model and assuming single ascertainment of families, but the methods can be easily generalized to alternative models. The algorithm is computationally efficient, making multi-dataset simulation studies feasible. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the methods.     

伏羲神话、女娲神话与盘古神话是三个不同的神话谱系——盘古神话来源问题研究之七

源于黄河上游地区的伏羲创制八卦、定阴阳、兴婚姻嫁娶之礼制、开渔猎畜牧之先、造书结绳记事的神话,源于我国北方的女娲补天、搏土造人的神话和源于华南珠江流域的盘古开天辟地、化生万物和兄妹结婚再造人类的神话,本是三个起源地、始创民族和内容都不同的神话谱系。后来,随着盘古神话的北传,后人将盘古神话的内容移植或融入伏羲或女娲神话之中,形成次生形态且与其原初内容相矛盾的神话。盘古神话永远是中国的第一神话。     

社会生态学的谱系比较及发展前瞻

社会生态学研究存在两个主要谱系。对社会生态学两个主要谱系的比较分析揭示了二者在有机整体世界观、肯定理性对解决生态问题的作用、分析生态问题的社会视角三个方面的一致性,以及在理论分析方法的侧重点、理论定位、理论贡献与实践影响三个方面的区别。两个谱系的一致性与区别对展望社会生态学的发展趋势、正确定位和推动中国社会生态学的深入研究,具有重要的启示意义。     

Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Measures of Uncertainty in Model-Based Environmental Assessment: The NUSAP System

This article discusses recent experiences with the Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree (NUSAP) system for multidimensional uncertainty assessment, based on four case studies that vary in complexity. We show that the NUSAP method is applicable not only to relatively simple calculation schemes but also to complex models in a meaningful way and that NUSAP is useful to assess not only parameter uncertainty but also (model) assumptions. A diagnostic diagram can be used to synthesize results of quantitative analysis of parameter sensitivity and qualitative review (pedigree analysis) of parameter strength. It provides an analytic tool to prioritize uncertainties according to quantitative and qualitative insights in the limitations of available knowledge. We show that extension of the pedigree scheme to include societal dimensions of uncertainty, such as problem framing and value-laden assumptions, further promotes reflexivity and collective learning. When used in a deliberative setting, NUSAP pedigree assessment has the potential to foster a deeper social debate and a negotiated management of complex environmental problems.