Evidence for hedge fund predictability from a multivariate Student's t full-factor GARCH model

Extending previous work on hedge fund return predictability, this paper introduces the idea of modelling the conditional distribution of hedge fund returns using Student's t full-factor multivariate GARCH models. This class of models takes into account the stylized facts of hedge fund return series, that is, heteroskedasticity, fat tails and deviations from normality. For the proposed class of multivariate predictive regression models, we derive analytic expressions for the score and the Hessian matrix, which can be used within classical and Bayesian inferential procedures to estimate the model parameters, as well as to compare different predictive regression models. We propose a Bayesian approach to model comparison which provides posterior probabilities for various predictive models that can be used for model averaging. Our empirical application indicates that accounting for fat tails and time-varying covariances/correlations provides a more appropriate modelling approach of the underlying dynamics of financial series and improves our ability to predict hedge fund returns.     

浅谈洁净手术部在医院基建工程中的特殊需求

随着现代医学的发展,洁净手术部成为各手术学科建设与发展的重要前提与支柱,对原有手术室功能进行改造势在必行。为了实现医院洁净手术部向信息化、智能化、集约化发展,从洁净手术部的选址、功能等方面介绍了当前省内部分二级以上医疗单位洁净手术室建设的新进展,总结近年来在洁净手术室规划、建设过程中的经验,为现代医院基建工程管理提供借鉴,保障医院医疗、教学、科研工作的顺利开展。     

跨文化的解码与建构--论美国汉学家史景迁的孔子研究

美国著名汉学家史景迁(Jonathan D. Spence)从文化认知、文化比较的研究视域出发，对孔子进行了跨文化解读与传播。在史景迁“去偶像化”的观照方式下，孔子被解码、建构为具备鲜明个性特质的人文主义者及令人尊重的教育者形象。同时，史景迁致力于厘清西方一般认知中对孔子及其思想的诸多误读，并努力唤起西方受众对孔子当代意义的认同。     

Improved approaches to interval estimation of effective doses for a logistic dose-response curve

Asymptotic confidence (delta) intervals and intervals based upon the use of Fieller's theorem are alternative methods for constructing intervals for the <$>\gamma<$>% effective doses (ED<$>_\gamma<$>). Sitter and Wu (1993) provided a comparison of the two approaches for the ED<$>_{50}<$>, for the case in which a logistic dose response curve is assumed. They showed that the Fieller intervals are generally superior. In this paper, we introduce two new families of intervals, both of which include the delta and Fieller intervals as special cases. In addition we consider interval estimation of the ED<$>_{90}<$> as well as the ED<$>_{50}<$>. We provide a comparison of the various methods for the problem of constructing a confidence interval for the ED<$>_\gamma<$>.     

The Complete Exact Null Distribution of Spearman's Rho for n = 12(1)18

Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, Rho, is a widely used nonparametric measure of association. Complete, exact tables of the null distribution are calculated and presented for n = 12 to 18.     

Women's Access to Property: A Comparative Study on Islamic and Kemalist Women in Turkey

This article uses a comparative approach to discuss women's access to property using evidence collected from field research conducted on two distinct communities of Istanbul: one secular and one Islamic. The two groups of women possess distinctly different views of the world and how it is organized. This is particularly the case concerning gender where secular women put forth a view rooted in the sameness of the genders where the Islamic women were clear in their commitment to the idea of difference. These attitudes toward the equality and difference of the genders structures the relations of these women to property and the process of inheritance.     

Measuring Children's Experience of Their Right to Participate in School and Community: A Rights‐Based Approach

This paper discusses the development of a children's rights‐based measure of participation and the findings from its use in a survey of 10‐ to 11‐year‐old children (n = 3773). The measure, which was developed in collaboration with a group of children, had a high reliability (Cronbach's alpha = 0.89). Findings suggest that children's positive experience of their participation rights is higher in school than in community, and higher for girls compared to boys. It is argued that involving children in the ‘measurement’ of their own lives has the potential to generate more authentic data on children's lived experiences.     

The Box–Cox Transformation and Non‐Iterative Estimation Methods for Ordinal Log‐Linear Models

Recently Beh and Farver investigated and evaluated three non‐iterative procedures for estimating the linear‐by‐linear parameter of an ordinal log‐linear model. The study demonstrated that these non‐iterative techniques provide estimates that are, for most types of contingency tables, statistically indistinguishable from estimates from Newton's unidimensional algorithm. Here we show how two of these techniques are related using the Box–Cox transformation. We also show that by using this transformation, accurate non‐iterative estimates are achievable even when a contingency table contains sampling zeros.     

北美汉学界的《沧浪诗话》研究述评——以华裔族群为中心

北美汉学界的《沧浪诗话》研究在主体构成上包括华裔族群和本土学者两个群体。华裔族群的代表人物是刘若愚、叶维廉、叶嘉莹、欧阳桢等人，本土学者的代表人物是加拿大的林理彰，美国的宇文所安、费维廉等人。整体上看。华裔族群的研究凸显出如下四个主要特点：一是注重影响研究，包括严羽诗论对前代文论的承传及其对后代文论（文学理论和文学批评）的影响；二是对严羽诗论系统中“以禅喻诗”批评方法及“兴趣”、“妙悟”等概念进行了阐释：三是方法上移西释中和中西对话并用；四是注意吸纳中国和日本“严学”家的研究成果。