个人生物识别信息的公益诉讼保护路径优化

生物识别信息作为敏感的个人信息,深度体现个人的生理和行为特征。数字时代下,个人信息保护与经济价值产出之间产生对立,同时个人信息权益逐渐由个体私益向社会公益交织演变,构建优化多维的公益诉讼保护路径、维护个人基本权利符合发展要义。坚持行政公益诉讼为主,发挥行政机关守护社会公共利益的第一顺位作用,民事公益诉讼为辅,拓宽多元主体参与守护公共利益通道,创新刑事附带民事诉讼,发挥传统检察优势力量与新时期救济手段相结合,完善公益诉讼救济内涵路径、增设惩罚性规则等体制机制,符合我国司法信息保护能动治理之路。     

中国高龄老人生活自理能力纵向动态研究

利用"中国老年健康长寿跟踪调查"1998年、2000年、2002年的跟踪数据分析中国高龄老人ADL的变动趋势及其影响因素。个体增长模型结果显示,高龄老人ADL状况随年龄增长出现了明显的下降趋势,ADL个体差异十分显著。个体之间的差异解释了ADL总差异的31.13%。经历三次追踪调查的高龄老人ADL均值较高,状况较好,下降速度较慢;基期具有3-4项残障的高龄老人,未来ADL下降最为迅速;基期ADL水平高的高龄老人,ADL下降较慢。从ADL的个体影响因素来看,对于基期ADL水平影响最大的变量是"年龄"、"疾病状况"以及"居住安排"等,而对观测期ADL变动速度影响最大的变量是"年龄"以及"过去是否经常从事体力劳动"等。     

《彼拉维德》女权主义思想评析

《彼拉维德》以艺术的方式记录了处在边缘的美国黑人女性在白人和男人双重压迫下的痛苦挣扎和艰难的自我迫寻历程为了拥有一间属于自己的屋子,她们付出了惨重的代价为了摆脱“第二性”的地位,她们用自己的身体写作,以改变她们在历史上作为“隐形人”和“失声集团”的存在;她们打开自己的房间,让男人进来,共同书写那原来只是属于他的故事——历史,而所有这些又都被小说家编织进她那精巧的元小说叙述中去了。     

从依附走向叛逆——中国文学女性意识发展轨迹论

文章论述了我国文学从先秦到新时期女性意识发展的历史轨迹,从人身依附走向个性解放、阶级解放,社会解放再到女性意识的真正觉醒构成了一条总的走向。     

Analysis of Competing Risks by Using Bayesian Smoothing

We consider the competing risks set-up. In many practical situations, the conditional probability of the cause of failure given the failure time is of direct interest. We propose to model the competing risks by the overall hazard rate and the conditional probabilities rather than the cause-specific hazards. We adopt a Bayesian smoothing approach for both quantities of interest. Illustrations are given at the end.     

Binary Dynamic Logit for Correlated Ordinal: estimation,application and simulation

We evaluate the estimation performance of the Binary Dynamic Logit model for correlated ordinal variables (BDLCO model), and compare it to GEE and Ordinal Logistic Regression performance in terms of bias and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) via Monte Carlo simulation. Our results indicate that when the proportional-odds assumption does not hold, the proposed BDLCO method is superior to existing models in estimating correlated ordinal data. Moreover, this method is flexible in terms of modeling dependence and allows unequal slopes for each category, and can be used to estimate an apple bloom data set where the proportional-odds assumption is violated. We also provide a function in R to implement BDLCO.     

A multivariate zero-inflated binomial model for the analysis of correlated proportional data

In this paper, a new multivariate zero-inflated binomial (MZIB) distribution is proposed to analyse the correlated proportional data with excessive zeros. The distributional properties of purposed model are studied. The Fisher scoring algorithm and EM algorithm are given for the computation of estimates of parameters in the proposed MZIB model with/without covariates. The score tests and the likelihood ratio tests are derived for assessing both the zero-inflation and the equality of multiple binomial probabilities in correlated proportional data. A limited simulation study is performed to evaluate the performance of derived EM algorithms for the estimation of parameters in the model with/without covariates and to compare the nominal levels and powers of both score tests and likelihood ratio tests. The whitefly data is used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.     

农村居民消费对我国经济增长影响分析

本文通过建立面板数据模型测度了农村居民消费对我国经济增长的影响效应,认为农村居民消费对我国经济增长具有正向促进作用但不够明显,分析了扩大农村居民消费需求促进经济增长所面临的障碍因素并提出了相应的对策建议。     

Rate efficient estimation of realized Laplace transform of volatility with microstructure noise

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the Laplace transform of volatility within a fixed time interval [0,T] using high‐frequency sampling, where we assume that the discretized observations of the latent process are contaminated by microstructure noise. We use the pre‐averaging approach to deal with the effect of microstructure noise. Under the high‐frequency scenario, we obtain a consistent estimator whose convergence rate is , which is known as the optimal convergence rate of the estimation of integrated volatility functionals under the presence of microstructure noise. The related central limit theorem is established. The simulation studies justify the finite‐sample performance of the proposed estimator.     

能源价格波动对中国物价水平的潜在与实际影响

目的/意义原油作为重要的工业原料、大宗商品和战略储备物资,其价格波动对全球经济发展具有重大影响,对原油价格进行预测是能源经济领域的热点研究课题。对国际原油价格预测的主要方法进行系统梳理并展望未来研究方向,有助于该研究领域的纵深发展。设计/方法基于295篇国际期刊文献,对国际油价预测的发展阶段、发表期刊、研究机构等进行归纳总结,然后对近二十年油价预测领域的主要研究方法进行系统梳理和分析,最后对油价预测工作进行评述和趋势展望。结论/发现自2008年金融危机后,油价预测研究快速发展,相关文章主要发表于能源经济领域的权威期刊《Energy Economic》。现有油价预测方法主要包括计量模型、机器学习和混合预测模型。展望未来,利用高频日内交易数据,融合计量和机器学习前沿方法,对原油价格进行区间预测或概率密度预测是值得探索的方向,此外还应深化油价预测结果的实际应用价值。