我国人口老龄化的城乡差异及影响因素分析

人口的乡—城转移导致了老龄化城乡倒置现象,人口的单向跨区域流动也造成了我国大范围的地区年龄结构失衡,对我国的经济社会可持续发展造成威胁。基于2010—2019年大陆31个省市的面板数据,以人口老龄化系数为被解释变量,分别构建固定效应和随机效应模型,从人口、经济、社会三个方面研究我国城镇、农村人口老龄化和城乡倒置现象的影响因素以及三类因素在东、中、西部地区的不同表现。结果显示,人口因素是老龄化城乡差异的直接原因,经济因素是根本原因,教育、医疗、社会保障等社会因素在城乡、区域之间影响不一。为此,政府应当增强生育支持力度以提高生育率,推动城乡一体化发展,推动农村地区的养老服务建设,并鼓励区域的联动合作,以缓解老龄化集聚地区的人口压力。     

中国老年人储蓄对家庭消费的影响 ——基于CHARLS面板数据的分析

在我国快速老龄化和居民储蓄率居高不下的背景下,结合老年人储蓄偏好和消费特点,构建家庭消费计量分析模型,文章利用CHARLS2011、2013、2015年微观跟踪调查数据,采用工具变量—随机效应模型划分年龄层次和消费类别逐级估计,重点考察老年人储蓄对其家庭消费的影响。研究表明,老年人储蓄水平越高,对家庭消费的促进能力就越强;分城乡来看,农村老年人储蓄对家庭消费的贡献更大;按年龄组别来看,中、低龄老年人储蓄对家庭消费的影响显著,高龄老年人储蓄对家庭消费的影响不显著;按消费类别看,老年人储蓄偏重于家庭基本生活、教育文化、健康等刚性消费支出,城镇和农村老年人储蓄对不同消费类别影响的差异主要表现在日常支出、医疗保健和耐用消费品等方面。此外,研究还发现,老年人拥有房产对家庭消费具有非常明显的提振作用,家庭收入和老年人借贷对家庭消费的贡献显著。     

The functional patterns of adolescent mothers leaving foster care: Results from a cluster analysis

Few studies have explored the outcomes of adolescent mothers leaving foster care, especially using person‐oriented methods. The current study employed a cluster analysis to identify unique patterns of functioning among adolescent mothers aged 19 (n = 777). Data from the National Youth in Transition Database and the Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System were utilized. Findings revealed five subpopulations characterized by distinct constellations of outcomes at age 19. The largest group (43%) exhibited competent functioning across all the domains studied—its members were connected to school and/or employment and did not experience homelessness, substance abuse referrals, or incarceration during the past 2 years (i.e., “resilient”). A relatively small group (12%) exhibited challenges across all the above‐referenced domains, whereas the remaining groups presented challenges in some domains, but not in others. Follow‐up analyses revealed that adolescent mothers classified as resilient at age 19 had the lowest rates of congregate care placements and the highest rates of nonrelative foster care placements at age 17. Moreover, they had lower placement instability and higher rates of extended foster care as compared with members of the other clusters. Implications for practice, policy, and research are discussed.     

Building home on a fault line: Aging out of child welfare with a serious mental health diagnosis

Youth aging out of foster care are at high risk for homelessness. This research explains how and why homelessness occurs among youth with serious mental health struggles after aging out of residential and transitional living programmes. Using a longitudinal constructivist grounded theory design, we analyse 20 in‐depth interviews exploring youth's transition experiences and perceptions of transition success within 4 months of emancipation and at 6 and 12 months postemancipation. Monthly 15‐min check‐ins prevented attrition. A three‐phase transition process was observed driven by participant desires and actions to cultivate psychological home through establishing physical home alone away from social networks. Pre‐emancipation, the promise of home was privacy and opportunity for self‐redefinition. Shortly after emancipation, home became a physical and social space to be, a valuable resource to share and a demonstration of personal transition success. However, later in the year postemancipation, maintaining physical home proves nearly impossible given the risk context. Findings speak to how and why youth aging out appear overly self‐reliant upon emancipation. Cultivating a psychological sense of home has practice implications for child welfare providers who aim to prepare youth to live independently postemancipation.     

“Ours is the Strangest Situation,Ours is Different from Most Peoples”: Spousal Caregiver Perspectives on the Complex Challenges of Dementia Caregiving in Late-Life Marriage

The relationship between the person with dementia with family caregivers is a key factor in maintaining a sense of self and personhood. Spousal caregiving in particular can create a world of shared meaning, and in the context of the presence of cognitive decline in one spouse, couple hood is essential to a full understanding of how spouses live with and respond to the impact of dementia. While much research has focused on the strengths of long-term married couples caring for a spouse with dementia, there is currently little research on how dementia impacts couples in late-life marriage. This qualitative case study focusses on two female caregivers in late-life marriages negotiating the challenges of caregiving for a spouse with dementia. Spouse 1 returned to live with her ex-husband in order to care for him through his dementia journey and they recently remarried. Spouse 2 married a close friend of the family prior to his dementia diagnosis. While participant shared perspectives include: (1) family dynamics, (2) isolation, (3) financial concerns, and (4) acceptance of their role in their spouse’s dementia journey, their long-term outlooks are divergent due to the complexity of their motives for entering in to late-life marriage.     

The female aging body: A systematic review of female perspectives on aging,health, and body image

While most body image research has focused on young female populations, evidence has shown that as few as 12% of older women are satisfied with their body size. Recent studies have also highlighted how anti-aging discourses are promoting unrealistic body norms, which have shown to contribute to poor body image and altered health behaviors. A systematic review of empirical studies focused on older women’s perspectives of health, body image, and the aging body is presented. Findings support that body image is a persistent, lifelong issue for women and should be considered when implementing healthy aging policies and practices.     

Finding the vulnerable among China’s elderly: identifying measures for effective policy targeting

Facing a rapidly aging population, China has recently started to formulate and implement policies with the aim to provide old-age care. While well-developed old-age care policies commonly include a built-in component that assesses eligibility based on vulnerability, no such process is established in the context of China. Here, based on data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study collected in both 2011 and 2013, we (a) developed a simple and effective strategy for identifying vulnerable Chinese elderly, which can serve as a basis for policy targeting, and (b) improved the policy relevance and targeting efficiency of this vulnerability measure by including additional health indicators. Our vulnerability measures identify 35% to 46% of Chinese elderly as vulnerable, covering up to 67% of elderly at high risk of death or functional decline. They can serve as an initial screening step for more comprehensive geriatric assessments and enable policy makers to effectively target vulnerable elderly persons in China.     

Population aging and long-term care policies in the Gulf region: a case study of Oman

Population aging is a phenomenon occurring across the globe including in countries traditionally exhibiting population dividends and “youth bulges.” The Gulf Corporation Council countries are no exception as they currently experience a process of population aging, albeit at a different stage from many developed countries. However, due to historically high fertility rates and fast-paced epidemiological transition, some of these countries will experience population aging at a higher pace than what has been observed in Europe and the United States. This article reviews recent developments in long-term care policies in the Gulf region with a focus on Oman as an example of a high-income Arab country that is experiencing population aging while still being governed by traditional family aged-care norms. Utilizing existing data and published research complemented by policy analysis and field visits, we analyze the process of population aging in Oman and neighboring countries and its policy implications.     

人口较少民族经济向现代经济转变的路径分析

在阐述路径依赖理论的基础上,结合人口较少民族经济的特点对人口较少民族经济向现代经济转变的路径进行了分析,提出要辩证地看待人口较少民族传统经济在这一转变中的影响和作用,认为人口较少民族实现经济转变的首要问题是打破经济封闭和信息封闭,在此基础上,将自身的特色优势与区域优势有效结合起来,将传统经济中的积极因素与现代经济因素有效结合起来,走因地制宜、循序渐进的转变路径。     

长江经济带水足迹字典序优化配置研究

针对长江经济带日益突出的人水矛盾,基于水足迹理论,构建基于人口数量的流域水足迹字典序优化配置模型,并提出水资源承载力的平衡指数模型,综合辨识人口结构对长江经济带水足迹字典序优化配置的作用机制。研究表明：人口总量对水足迹字典序优化配置具有显著的正向影响,人类活动强度是影响区域水资源承载力的平衡指数的关键要素;基于人口数量的流域水足迹字典序优化配置方案具有显著的城乡二元结构特征,本质上反映了城乡基础设施及产业结构的空间差异状态。该配置方案还具有人口就业结构特征,本质上反映了产业用水效率的空间差异状态。