Human Salmonellosis: Estimation of Dose-Illness from Outbreak Data

The quantification of the relationship between the amount of microbial organisms ingested and a specific outcome such as infection, illness, or mortality is a key aspect of quantitative risk assessment. A main problem in determining such dose-response models is the availability of appropriate data. Human feeding trials have been criticized because only young healthy volunteers are selected to participate and low doses, as often occurring in real life, are typically not considered. Epidemiological outbreak data are considered to be more valuable, but are more subject to data uncertainty. In this article, we model the dose-illness relationship based on data of 20 Salmonella outbreaks, as discussed by the World Health Organization. In particular, we model the dose-illness relationship using generalized linear mixed models and fractional polynomials of dose. The fractional polynomial models are modified to satisfy the properties of different types of dose-illness models as proposed by Teunis et al . Within these models, differences in host susceptibility (susceptible versus normal population) are modeled as fixed effects whereas differences in serovar type and food matrix are modeled as random effects. In addition, two bootstrap procedures are presented. A first procedure accounts for stochastic variability whereas a second procedure accounts for both stochastic variability and data uncertainty. The analyses indicate that the susceptible population has a higher probability of illness at low dose levels when the combination pathogen-food matrix is extremely virulent and at high dose levels when the combination is less virulent. Furthermore, the analyses suggest that immunity exists in the normal population but not in the susceptible population.     

论庾信与吴伟业的精神契合

庾信与吴伟业两位诗人精神特质上有诸多契合之处，他们在人格精神上都具有游移性，身陷失节境地时又都表现出可贵的自省精神；为摆脱精神上的绝望感，同时他们还都存在着一种自辩情结和逃避心态。     

当前影响和制约中国电子商务进一步发展的几个问题

当前，影响和制约中国电子商务进一步发展的主要问题集中表现在“信用缺失”问题上，它导致人们对网上交易仍心存疑虑，物流配送滞后，商品流通不畅，企业计算机应用水平不高，高水平网络人才匮乏，与电子商务相关的法规体制不够健全。为此，中国电子商务必须建立诚信长效机制，加快物流配送体系建设，构筑有效的社会物流配送系统．加快推广电子商务知识，强化电子商务人才培养，健全与国际接轨的电子商务法律体系。     

Ecocultural Attributes: Evaluating Ecological Degradation in Terms of Ecological Goods and Services Versus Subsistence and Tribal Values

It is becoming increasingly clear that scientists, managers, lawyers, public policymakers, and the public must decide how to value what is provided by, and is a consequence of, natural resources. While “Western” scientists have clear definitions for the goods and services that ecosystems provide, we contend that these categories do not encompass the full totality of the values provided by natural resources. Partly the confusion results from a limited view of natural resources derived from the need to monetize the value of ecosystems and their component parts. Partly it derives from the “Western” way of separating natural resources from cultural resources or values, and partly it derives from the false dichotomy of assuming that ecosystems are natural, and anything constructed by man is not natural. In this article, we explore the previous assumptions, and suggest that because cultural resources often derive from, and indeed require, intact and unspoiled natural ecosystems or settings, that these values are rightly part of natural resources. The distinction is not trivial because of the current emphasis on cleaning up chemically and radiologically contaminated sites, on restoration of damaged ecosystems, on natural resource damage assessments, and on long‐term stewardship goals. All of these processes depend upon defining natural resources appropriately. Several laws, regulations, and protocols depend upon natural resource trustees to protect natural resources on trust lands, which could lead to the circular definition that natural resources are those resources that the trustees feel they are responsible for. Where subsistence or tribal peoples are involved, the definition of natural resources should be broadened to include those ecocultural attributes that are dependent upon, and have incorporated, natural resources. For example, a traditional hunting and fishing ground is less valued by subsistence peoples if it is despoiled by contamination or physical ecosystem degradation; an Indian sacred ground is tarnished if the surrounding natural environment is degraded; a traditional homeland is less valued if the land itself is contaminated. Our argument is that intact natural resources are essential elements of many cultural resources, and this aspect requires and demands adequate consideration (and may therefore require compensation).     

二世策墨林诺们罕活佛圆寂日期与地点续考

二世策墨林诺们罕是清代西藏著名活佛，原籍甘肃省洮州厅卓尼土司辖区，曾任西藏摄政（1819-1844）、第七十三任甘丹赤巴和十世达赖喇嘛的正师傅，是西藏历史上权势最大、结局最为悲惨的摄政活佛。道光二十四年（1844年）六月其被革职查办，拘禁拿问，次年（1845年）奉旨流放黑龙江，给披甲人为奴。国内外史学界对其最终结局、圆寂时间、圆寂地点、享年岁数及其呼毕勒罕三世策墨林活佛的出生年份历来众说纷纭。中国第一历史档案馆藏军机处录副奏折表明：成丰十年四月十九日（1860年6月8日），二世策墨林诺们罕活佛在新疆喀喇沙尔乌讷恩苏珠克图旧土尔扈特蒙古南部落的札萨克卓哩克图汗旗圆寂，享年69岁（1792-1860年），遗骨奉旨安葬于该旗境内的佑安寺（又称永安寺、巴伦台黄庙），其呼毕勒罕三世策墨林活佛出生于成丰十一年（1861年），而非其他年份。     

从殖民和后殖民的角度看现代性问题

全球范围内殖民主义体系的崩溃，使现代性具有了多义性和混乱性。这证明了西方现代性本身存在着矛盾性和含混性，也说明了西方现代性的对立面——反殖民主义和现代性的效颦者——更加深了现代性本身的矛盾性和含混性，表现出对资本主义工业（或后工业）社会所设想的现代文明的质疑与抗议。     

论张岱小品文的世俗性

从审美的角度看，张岱的小品文卸去了“文以载道”的传统，以普通人的视角再现明亡之前其亲历的生活，多方面表现了大众风情，具有鲜明的世俗性：把在传统文人看来俗之又俗的生活素材诉诸笔端；牵引市民化的人物走进小品文；尤其小说化语言的运用，使得作品富于生活气息。究其成因，首先是文艺思潮世俗化的时代洪流。涌溢各处、不断浸淫；其次是当时市民阶层爱好并喜做小品文的风气甚炽，使得张岱需要考虑读者的趣味；再次是张岱家世生平的坎坷，使他处于文化边缘的写作境地，用饱含深情的笔墨展现市民形貌、礼赞世俗人生。     

我国十二生肖文化探源

十二生肖是一种颇具内涵的文化现象，在我国已有悠久的历史。其特点是以十二种动物配十二地支，以人之生年定所属动物。我国远古的图腾崇拜是十二生肖的滥觞，而干支的创制与中华民族的多元一体则是十二生肖形成的基础.     

可持续旅游扶贫开发模式研究——社区参与乡村旅游

在对乡村旅游、旅游扶贫和社区参与旅游发展相关概念内涵及研究进展阐述的基础上,着重分析了贫困乡村社区参与旅游发展的必要性和主要障碍,提出社区参与乡村旅游的一些思路,即发挥政府的主导作用,通过政策调控保障社区参与的主体地位,通过科学合理的利益分配政策框架确立社区居民参与的激励机制,提高社区居民的相关旅游知识及进行相关能力培训,提高非政府组织在旅游发展中的作用等。     

构建我国高校知识产权教育体系

高校知识产权教育是近年来人们关注的热点。针对我国高校知识产权教育管理中存在的问题，从高校知识产权教育现状入手，借鉴日本知识产权教育管理经验，提出构建中国高校知识产权教育体系的观点，并就高校知识产权教育及教育体系问题进行了分析。