户籍制度对劳动力转移制约的分析

劳动力转移服从成本—收益原则,劳动力跨区域转移遵循的基本法则是迁入地收益应大于迁出地收益和迁移成本之和。根据这一基本法则考察我国传统经济体制和中国市场化改革中的劳动力转移,可以发现二者的区别:在传统经济体制中劳动力转移主要表现为行政转移型,劳动力转移困难且劳动力资源配置的低效率;在中国市场化改革中,劳动力转移模式逐步转变为自主转移型为主,但以户籍为首的制度体系的存在,形成了劳动力转移的障碍,加大了劳动力的转移成本。对此,应从完善我国市场经济体制出发,进一步深化劳动力流动的改革。     

Non-stationary spatiotemporal analysis of karst water levels

Summary.  We consider non-stationary spatiotemporal modelling in an investigation into karst water levels in western Hungary. A strong feature of the data set is the extraction of large amounts of water from mines, which caused the water levels to reduce until about 1990 when the mining ceased, and then the levels increased quickly. We discuss some traditional hydrogeological models which might be considered to be appropriate for this situation, and various alternative stochastic models. In particular, a separable space–time covariance model is proposed which is then deformed in time to account for the non-stationary nature of the lagged correlations between sites. Suitable covariance functions are investigated and then the models are fitted by using weighted least squares and cross-validation. Forecasting and prediction are carried out by using spatiotemporal kriging. We assess the performance of the method with one-step-ahead forecasting and make comparisons with naïve estimators. We also consider spatiotemporal prediction at a set of new sites. The new model performs favourably compared with the deterministic model and the naïve estimators, and the deformation by time shifting is worthwhile.     

社会转型期教师德育价值取向

本文阐述了我国社会转型期的基本特征,揭示了教师德育价值取向面临的冲击与挑战以及存在的问题。     

焦虑与执行功能子成分关系的实验研究

基于认知任务测验法,对不同焦虑状态被试的抑制功能、注意转换功能及信息刷新功能进行测量,结果表明高焦虑个体在冲突条件下的Stroop命名反应时延长,错误率较高,在较难任务水平上,加-减法任务的注意转换操作时间延长,及活动记忆任务的分数下降;特质焦虑×状态焦虑×任务难度对执行功能的交互作用显著。因此,高焦虑状态对执行功能各子成分的影响作用表现为焦虑维度的选择性,即特质焦虑主要影响认知加工速度,状态焦虑主要影响信息加工的准确性,并且,一个焦虑维度的选择性受另一维度和任务难度的调节。     

从框架转换看英汉脑筋急转弯的异同

脑筋急转弯是一种体现思维跳动的言语幽默。这种思维的跳动体现了典型的语义框架的转换。文章旨在分析框架转换角度下的英语脑筋急转弯的分类,并结合前人研究,探讨英汉脑筋急转弯的表达异同,以期启迪读者更好地理解跨文化幽默。     

万物以形相禅观念和齐物论的纠结－兼释《庄子》中“强阳”的含义

万物以形相禅是先秦时期重要的哲学观念 ,先民用它解说物种的起源和演变 ,带有朴素的进化论色彩。《庄子》一书作为先秦哲学的经典著作 ,也吸纳了万物以形相禅的观念 ,并且把它和齐一万物的理论相结合。《庄子》书中两次出现的“强阳”之语 ,是和万物以形相禅直接关联的概念 ,有它特定的含义 ,以往的注释未能切中肯綮。《庄子》书中万物以形相禅观念和齐一万物理论的联系主要体现在两个方面 ,一是因果关系 ,二是形态的对应性。二者的结合经历了一个历史的发展过程。内篇初见端倪 ,外篇多处可见 ,杂篇最终完成。二者的综合使齐一万物理论的覆盖面从社会哲学、道德哲学扩展到自然哲学、生命哲学 ,齐一万物理论内容更加丰富 ,体系走向完备。     

中国当前就业及居民收入层次变化分析

本文就加入WTO后初期对我国就业的影响和居民收入层次变化做出了深入和全面的分析,并透视了就业和人才的关系,为未来的就业指出了引导性的方向。     

A Model of Age-specific Fecundability

A new model of the behavioural and physiological causes of age-specific variation in marital fecundability is presented. Total fecundability is decomposed into a series of susceptibility factors (the length of ovarian cycles, the length of the fertile period within each cycle, the probability that a cycle is ovulatory, and the likelihood that an act of unprotected intercourse within the fertile period results in conception) and an exposure factor reflecting the effect of duration of marriage on coital frequency. The impact of intra-uterine mortality on effective fecundability is also modelled. Data on western women, from which standard age curves of fecundability are estimated, suggest that any decline in fecundity between ages 30 and 40 is attributable to changes, not in the ability to conceive, but in the capacity to carry a pregnancy to term. Sensitivity tests suggest that the most important potential sources of inter-population variation in fecundability are intra-uterine death and the incidence of anovulatory cycles.     

中国农村女性劳动力非农转移:文献综述

在中国城乡二元结构尤为突出的背景下,农村女性劳动力的非农转移问题极具复杂性和特殊性。重点从就地转移和外出务工这两方面,对中国农村女性劳动力非农转移的相关研究进行梳理和评述。对于该问题的研究最初主要从社会学的角度进行考查,之后更多的则是从经济学的角度展开研究。并且,近几年来逐步拓展到运用计量经济学的方法对中国农村女性劳动力的流动行为、职业选择、收入水平、迁移与回流等问题进行实证分析。但以下问题还有待进一步研究:一是城镇化进程中农村失地妇女的非农就业问题;二是户籍制度改革下农村女性劳动力非农就业对农村家庭向城市迁移的影响;三是农村外出务工妇女迁移和回流选择行为的分析。     

冷等离子体中的定向瞬态电磁波

讨论了冷等离子体中的定向瞬态电磁波。通过严格求解冷等离子体中的Ｍａｘｗｅｌｌ方程组，给出了定向瞬态电磁波ＴＭ模的电场及其场型图。结果表明，与在自由空间时相比，在各向同性冷等离子体中，定向瞬态电磁波发生了相移；与等离子体中传播的常规电磁波相比，没有截止频率。这两个特点使其在等离子体中具有极其重要的实用价值。