Bayesian validation assessment of multivariate computational models

Multivariate model validation is a complex decision-making problem involving comparison of multiple correlated quantities, based upon the available information and prior knowledge. This paper presents a Bayesian risk-based decision method for validation assessment of multivariate predictive models under uncertainty. A generalized likelihood ratio is derived as a quantitative validation metric based on Bayes’ theorem and Gaussian distribution assumption of errors between validation data and model prediction. The multivariate model is then assessed based on the comparison of the likelihood ratio with a Bayesian decision threshold, a function of the decision costs and prior of each hypothesis. The probability density function of the likelihood ratio is constructed using the statistics of multiple response quantities and Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed methodology is implemented in the validation of a transient heat conduction model, using a multivariate data set from experiments. The Bayesian methodology provides a quantitative approach to facilitate rational decisions in multivariate model assessment under uncertainty.     

西方企业战略更新研究

企业战略更新是21世纪战略管理学的重要主题之一。阅读大量文献后,发现西方学者从不同的角度研究战略更新问题。美国学者佛罗达等是从中层管理者的角度出发,认为中层管理者是探索战略更新的一个合适的切入点。荷兰学者沃伯达等从共同演进的视角思考了战略更新,认为战略更新是一个持续的过程,应该把环境的选择和管理的适应性相结合。荷兰学者温勒梅科等是从整合的视角探索战略更新的轨迹,他们的研究视野融入了三个维度:组织形式、管理者角色和时间维度。     

Optimal sampling for repeated binary measurements

The authors consider the optimal design of sampling schedules for binary sequence data. They propose an approach which allows a variety of goals to be reflected in the utility function by including deterministic sampling cost, a term related to prediction, and if relevant, a term related to learning about a treatment effect To this end, they use a nonparametric probability model relying on a minimal number of assumptions. They show how their assumption of partial exchangeability for the binary sequence of data allows the sampling distribution to be written as a mixture of homogeneous Markov chains of order k. The implementation follows the approach of Quintana & Müller (2004), which uses a Dirichlet process prior for the mixture.     

基于趋势的区域物流规划的定位分析

本文分析了区域物流规划的定位现状及其基本原则，在此基础上分析了区域物流定位的影响因素及其变化趋势，利用AHP分析法来确定各因素的权重，提出了确定区域物流规划定位的数学模型，并用郑州市的相关数据做了实证分析。     

薪酬和绩效良性战略互动的探讨

从经济学、激励理论以及组织战略发展角度出发,分别分析薪酬和绩效之间的互动关系存在的客观根源(即等价关系的客观存在)和主观原因(即组织战略发展的需要)。同时通过对目前薪酬设计和绩效考核存在的脱离组织发展战略和员工个性需求等不科学、不合理现象并严重影响二者互动的因素进行了分析,最终从方法和理论角度详细讨论了如何防止二者脱节,如何使二者之间形成良性互动、达到和谐状态的途径。     

基于模糊分析的中国商业银行战略联盟伙伴选择研究

随着金融业务的国际化，战略联盟已经成为银行提高自身竞争力的一个有效手段。研究确定商业银行联盟伙伴选择的原则与标准，根据这些标准，运用模糊聚类分析法对银行潜在的联盟伙伴的选择进行分析，使商业银行有针对性的与一些联盟伙伴发展合作伙伴关系，减少交易成本和搜寻成本，从而提高银行的运作效率。     

战略阻绝效应对战略联盟决策的影响分析

本文将对战略联盟决策的分析纳入SCP范式,并通过构造在位者和潜在进入者之间的三阶段博弈模型来分析战略阻绝效应对战略联盟决策的影响.本文认为:在位者的合适的战略联盟行为具有战略阻绝效应,可以通过改变潜在进入者的进入预期、影响进入者的行为并促进在位者的支付,这种支付的改变将拓宽战略联盟的决策空间,在位者将在更高的联盟成本或更低的固定边际成本下降程度上建立战略联盟.     

Couple Attitudes and Agreement Regarding Pregnancy Wantedness in the Philippines

We compare husbands' and wives' views of the wantedness of their most recent pregnancy in the Philippines, a country where relatively high levels of unintended fertility persist. This research is an extension of earlier work that looked separately at individual men's and women's responses. We analyze survey data for 369 couples and find that those most at risk of experiencing a pregnancy that neither spouse wanted tended to be higher parity couples, those who were more fatalistic, those who were practicing Catholics who attended religious services frequently, and those among whom the husband was the sole breadwinner. Higher parity women and older women were also more apt to experience a pregnancy that was wanted by only 1 spouse. Women who had difficulty discussing sexual matters with their husbands were more likely than other women to have a pregnancy that their husbands wanted but they did not.     

客户关系管理是一种竞争战略

客户关系管理是当今企业管理研究的热点之一,但理论界对客户关系管理的定义、界定、体系框架一直处于热烈的争论与探讨之中。正确界定客户关系管理的定义意义重大,用战略管理方法研究客户关系管理战略。通过战略管理可以降低企业CRM系统实施的失败率。     

邓小平农业战略思想与安徽农业和农村的发展

在我国改革开放与社会主义现代化建设实践中逐步形成的邓小平农业战略思想,是邓小平理论的重要组成部分。它有力地指导并推动着我国农业与农村的改革与发展。改革开放以来,安徽农业与农村获得巨大发展。这既是邓小平农业战略思想的直接成果,反过来又在实践中检验了邓小平农业战略思想的科学性及巨大指导作用。