当代资本主义经济停滞问题:制度结构与治理危机——基于积累的社会结构理论的分析

关于经济停滞问题的探讨是对马克思主义经济危机理论的传承。2008年金融危机爆发十余年,资本主义经济停滞趋于常态化。积累的社会结构理论从资本积累与支撑这一积累的制度环境之间的矛盾出发,发现了主流经济学探讨资本主义经济停滞所忽略的制度性因素。积累的社会结构学派沿着"中间层次"的路径,将2008年金融危机界定为系统性的结构危机,认为新自由主义SSA的失灵是此次经济停滞持续的原因。资本主义经济停滞引发欧美发达资本主义国家的社会治理危机升级,一系列政治、社会和文化危机不断加剧。积累的社会结构理论从微观层面深刻把握了资本主义制度转型的轨迹,但并未深入探讨开展根本的制度变革。在面临百年未有之大变局的时代境遇下,中国在参与全球治理的过程中不断探索并推动世界经济政治新秩序朝着更加公正、合理的方向发展。     

Toward a sociology of global comparative placemaking

I call for a globally informed sociology of comparative placemaking that integrates historical and contemporary processes and includes the ephemeral, institutional, and personal. By placemaking, I am referring to the explicit or tacit cooperation among people to create, maintain, and give meaning to places in space through bodily occupation given differential resources and constraints. I review select place, space, and community-based literature about urban, Black, migrant, LGBTQ, and international populations to think about how we can build upon and integrate multiple theoretical, methodological, and epistemological insights to form an explicit placemaking research agenda. A US focus on neighborhoods contrasts with a comparative examination of global urban networks, social polarization, and transformation of the built environment in the interdisciplinary field of global urban studies (Ren, 2018). I argue for a placemaking research agenda that bridges insight from US Urban Sociology with Global Urban Studies to consider how various structures and actors constrain and facilitate place projects. With a globally reaching and comparatively informed sociology of placemaking, we can illuminate our multi-structured story of place and agency in context. We can answer questions about how and why we co-create and are simultaneously disciplined by the process of creation.     

Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice

The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I–I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I–I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term “essential entities” includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state‐space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS.     

China’s Choice of Analytical Models for Its Anti-Monopoly Law

Modern analytical models for anti-monopoly laws are a core element of the application of those laws. Since the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People’s Republic of China was promulgated in 2008, law enforcement and judicial authorities have applied different analytical models, leading to divergent legal and regulatory outcomes as similar cases receive different verdicts. To select a suitable analytical model for China’s Anti-Monopoly Law, we need to consider the possible contribution of both economic analysis and legal formalism and to learn from the mature systems and experience of foreign countries. It is also necessary to take into account such binding constraints as the current composition of China’s anti-monopoly legal system, the ability of implementing agencies and the supply of economic analysis, in order to ensure complementarity between the analytical model chosen and the complexity of economic analysis and between the professionalism of implementing agencies and the cost of compliance for participants in economic activities. In terms of institutional design, the models should provide a considered explanation of the legislative aims of the law’s provisions. It is necessary, therefore, to establish a processing model of behavioral classification that is based on China’s national conditions, applies analytical models using normative comprehensive analysis, makes use of the distribution rule of burden of proof, improves supporting systems related to analytical models and enhances the ability of public authorities to implement the law.     

On the estimation of non linear functions in stochastic volatility models

Abstract

This paper focuses on the inference of suitable generally non linear functions in stochastic volatility models. In this context, in order to estimate the variance of the proposed estimators, a moving block bootstrap (MBB) approach is suggested and discussed. Under mild assumptions, we show that the MBB procedure is weakly consistent. Moreover, a methodology to choose the optimal length block in the MBB is proposed. Some examples and simulations on the model are also made to show the performance of the proposed procedure.     

为合法经营活动而侵犯公民个人信息的刑法规制

最高人民法院、最高人民检察院《关于办理侵犯公民个人信息刑事案件适用法律若干问题的解释》第六条对为合法经营活动而侵犯公民个人信息行为进行独立规制,是新型犯罪罪状表述抽象化与罪状解释具体化、信息时代信息价值多元化与危害行为多样化、现代社会犯罪治理精细化与刑法评价精准化的内在要求.为合法经营活动而侵犯公民个人信息行为相关规范要素中的“为合法经营活动”应理解为主观超过要素,“获利五万元”应作严格解释,“曾因侵犯公民个人信息”应作广义解释,“其他情节严重”应包括信息数量标准.     

区块链技术下智能合约之于合同的新诠释

应用于交易领域的智能合约融入区块链技术,以代码形式表现,可实现合同履行的自动化和不可逆,超越了传统意义上的合同模式.自助行为说、代理说将智能合约视为对合同过程的外部增强,是侧面功能的法律阐释,并未完全捕捉到实质.智能合约并不一定跨越整个合同过程,也可仅是合同过程某个方面或某个阶段.法律意义上的智能合约不是合同新类型,而是合同关系形式的新发展,即当事人缔结和履行合同的新形式,合同性质未发生实质变化.智能合约满足特定要件构成特殊的书面形式,具有"书面形式+自动履行"功能的特质.民事主体通过智能合约形式订立合同应遵守《民法典》等现行法律的具体规则,以保证合同依法成立与生效.智能合约不等同于具有法律效力的合同,认定其效力应结合智能合约应用中的具体问题展开具体分析.从立法上确认智能合约,在符合国家现有法律、政策基础上编写和应用,实现形式的合法化、内容的规范化是该技术谋求长远发展的保障.技术起步的现阶段,纸质合同、一般电子合同与智能合约在不同方面发挥协作作用,会在未来一段时间内成为民事交往、商业交易的主要状态.     

Comparison of labour and birth outcomes between nulliparous women who used epidural analgesia in labour and those who did not: A prospective cohort study

ObjectiveTo compare labour and birth outcomes between nulliparous women who used versus did not use intrapartum epidural analgesia.DesignProspective cohort study.SettingTwo maternity hospitals in Ireland.PopulationA total of 1221 nulliparous women who gave birth vaginally or by emergency caesarean section.MethodsMultinomial logistic regression was used to analyse categorical outcomes, with results presented as ratios of relative risks (RRR). For dichotomous outcomes we used logistic regression, with results presented as odds ratios (OR).Main outcome measuresMode of birth, IV syntocinon use, pyrexia (≥38 °C), antibiotic treatment, first stage labour ≥10 h, second stage labour ≥2 h, blood loss (≥500 mls, ≥1000 mls), perineal trauma. Neonatal outcomes included Apgar score ≥7 at 1 min and 5 min, admission to neonatal intensive care unit, and infant feeding method.ResultsWomen using EA were more likely to require a vacuum-assisted birth (RRR 3.35, p < 0.01) or forceps-assisted birth (RRR 11.69, p < 0.01). Exposure to EA was associated with significantly greater risk of ≥10 h first (OR 6.72, p = 0.01) and ≥2 h second (OR 2.25, p < 0.01) stage labour, increased likelihood of receiving IV syntocinon (OR 9.38, p < 0.01), antibiotics (OR 2.97, p < 0.01) and a greater probability of pyrexia (OR 10.26, p < 0.01). Women who used EA were half as likely to be breastfeeding at three months postpartum (OR 0.53, p < 0.01). No differences were observed between groups in neonatal outcomes.ConclusionsOur data shows significant associations between EA use and several intrapartum outcomes.     

Professional blinders? The novel as an eye-opener in organizational analysis

ABSTRACT

Scholarly textbooks often follow a logic where suitable empirical cases are selected to illustrate the theoretical and analytical points that we as scholars want to make. But what would happen if we would do the opposite: build a textbook on a novel written by a novelist for such purpose and let the theories explain the actions and emotions of fictional characters? In this article, we share and reflect upon our experiences of co-authoring a textbook in organization theory together with a professional novelist. We argue that the novel can function as an eye-opener in organizational analysis, forcing us to look beyond more static and rationalistic perspectives on organizations as well as the stereotypes of such. We build and relate our experiences to the growing literature about using fiction in scholarly work and discuss the potential of such genre-bending work when we bring in flesh and blood into the analyses.     

在四月里如何谈论衰老--西川《一个人老了》细读

《一个人老了》写于1991年4月，彼时作者的生理年龄与诗中感悟分别处于跨度相距较远的不同生命时段，由此在形成诗歌内在张力的同时，也使阅读必须面对在“四月”与“衰老”之间存在的强烈反差，问题由此被提出。对这种反差的成因分析是从文本的抒情节奏、抒情肌理以及价值立场与生命观等方面的异质特征切入，解读其在诗歌渊源上与博尔赫斯、聂鲁达等世界诗人之间的互文关系，进而追溯至作者西川所代表的“知识分子写作”对阅读经验的习惯性倚重。