浅谈高速公路公司财务预警系统

文章论述了利用财务指标分析法及判别分析法 ,对高速公路公司财务危机进行预测和警报 ,并运用多元判别分析法推导出高速公路行业的财务预警模型     

兴国山歌简论

客家南迁,已历史悠久。在长期的社会实践和生产劳动中,客家人创造了独具特色的包括音乐在内的客家文化,而兴国山歌则是客家音乐文化中的一朵奇葩。长期以来,兴国山歌唱遍大江南北,然而,从理论和实践的结合上对兴国山歌进行深入研究尚且不足。其实,认真考察兴国山歌的起源,从表现形式、内容和使用功能的文化价值上深入探究兴国山歌的类型及其风格特点,对兴国山歌进一步兴盛和发展无疑具有重要意义。     

高等教育私营化问题及其对中国的启示

对高等教育私营化这一国际化趋势进行初步探索,分析高等教育私营化带来的利与弊。结合我国高等教育的现状,探讨如何应对高等教育私营化问题及其对中国的启示。     

Economic Determinants of Net International Migration in Western Europe

This paper aims to estimate theinfluence of economic determinants on netinternational migration in Western Europe inthe period 1960–1998. Net migration rates(i.e., population growth minus natural increase,divided by the midyear population) constitutethe dependent variable. The economicdeterminants used in this study are GDP percapita, unemployment, and average educationallevel (amount of human capital) of thepopulation. Time series regression models havebeen used in country-specific analyses. Inaddition, a pooled cross-sectional time seriesanalysis has been made. The analyses suggestthat GDP per capita has a positive effect andunemployment a negative effect on a country'snet international migration.     

Consistencies and Inconsistencies: Mental Health, Compulsory Treatment and Community Capacity Building in England, Wales and Australia

In relation to mental health, it is clear that medicalized underpinnings,the provision of a clinically orientated evidence base for practiceand the need to contain ‘risk’ continue to be prioritized,particularly when compulsory intervention is considered. Thisis despite the increasing influence of a citizenship and socialjustice agenda which is being promoted by psychiatrists involvedin the development of ‘postpsychiatry’, as wellas by service users/survivors. These drivers are not mutuallyexclusive, but in the context of compulsory treatment, thereare clear tensions. In this article, the policy surroundingmental health and compulsory intervention in Australia and inEngland and Wales is explored. In the context of this discussion,three ways in which current government policy can be interpretedare examined and links made between these interpretations anddifferent ways of viewing the relationship between mental healthand community capacity building. With regard to social workpractice, it is argued that a response to mental ill healthwhich concentrates on an individualized ‘diagnose andtreat’ approach, which particularly comes to the foreat times of compulsory intervention, has limited capacity tofacilitate community engagement, foster social inclusion andgenerate reciprocal dynamics between positive mental healthand community capacity building.     

非英语专业研究生英语课程教学“需求分析”及应对策略

根据英国学者Tom Hutchinson和Alan Waters的需求分析理论,通过问卷形式对合肥工业大学非英语专业110名研一新生进行调查,并对结果进行分析,旨在了解他们的目标需求和学习需求,设计行之有效的英语课堂活动,以提高他们的说写能力及国际学术交流能力。     

我国建筑消防现状

近年来 ,中国城市建筑火灾发生率呈上升趋势 ,仅 1999年 ,全国共发生建筑火灾 18万起 ,比前一年增长 4 1% ;死亡 2 70 0多人 ,比前一年增长 15 % ,直接经济损失多达 14亿元。     

贵州省主导产业选择的投入产出分析

正确地选择主导产业对一个地区的经济发展有着至关重要的作用。本文以贵州省投入产出表为依据，运用投入产出分析方法，对地区主导产业的选择进行探讨，为贵州省产业结构调整和区域经济发展规划提供经济学意义的理论参考。     

考虑环境因素下的上海世博会经济影响评价

通过对环境生态成本的分析，根据上海市2002年的投入产出表，建立了基于资源一经济一环境绿色投入产出表的绿色GDP核算方法。利用这一方法对2010年上海世博会对上海经济一环境影响进行分析研究，结果反映了上海世博会对上海的综合影响。     

Modeling External Risks in Project Management

To ascertain the viability of a project, undertake resource allocation, take part in bidding processes, and other related decisions, modern project management requires forecasting techniques for cost, duration, and performance of a project, not only under normal circumstances, but also under external events that might abruptly change the status quo. We provide a Bayesian framework that provides a global forecast of a project's performance. We aim at predicting the probabilities and impacts of a set of potential scenarios caused by combinations of disruptive events, and using this information to deal with project management issues. To introduce the methodology, we focus on a project's cost, but the ideas equally apply to project duration or performance forecasting. We illustrate our approach with an example based on a real case study involving estimation of the uncertainty in project cost while bidding for a contract.