毛泽东主观能动性思想的历史考察

毛泽东非常重视主观能动性对于个人以及历史的积极作用,并希望籍此摆脱人在历史与客观规律面前的消极被动局面。这不仅是直接面对社会历史环境的选择,也是毛泽东哲学思想逻辑发展的必然。毛泽东主观能动性思想的历史发展可划分为青年时代、建国前以及社会主义建设时期3个时间段,每个阶段都有各自的特质,都与中国共产党人在不同阶段的革命和建设实践有着密切的关联。     

Bayesian Reanalysis of the Challenger O-Ring Data

A Bayesian forecasting model is developed to quantify uncertainty about the postflight state of a field-joint primary O-ring (not damaged or damaged), given the O-ring temperature at the time of launch of the space shuttle Challenger in 1986. The crux of this problem is the enormous extrapolation that must be performed: 23 previous shuttle flights were launched at temperatures between 53 °F and 81 °F, but the next launch is planned at 31 °F. The fundamental advantage of the Bayesian model is its theoretic structure, which remains correct over the entire sample space of the predictor and that affords flexibility of implementation. A novel approach to extrapolating the input elements based on expert judgment is presented; it recognizes that extrapolation is equivalent to changing the conditioning of the model elements. The prior probability of O-ring damage can be assessed subjectively by experts following a nominal-interacting process in a group setting. The Bayesian model can output several posterior probabilities of O-ring damage, each conditional on the given temperature and on a different strength of the temperature effect hypothesis. A lower bound on, or a value of, the posterior probability can be selected for decision making consistently with expert judgment, which encapsulates engineering information, knowledge, and experience. The Bayesian forecasting model is posed as a replacement for the logistic regression and the nonparametric approach advocated in earlier analyses of the Challenger O-ring data. A comparison demonstrates the inherent deficiency of the generalized linear models for risk analyses that require (1) forecasting an event conditional on a predictor value outside the sampling interval, and (2) combining empirical evidence with expert judgment.     

先秦儒家“天论”的演进及意义

如果说中国哲学的主题是“究天人之际”,那么先秦儒家的天论的演进便具有开拓性的意义。先秦儒家在天论演进的背景下追寻人人之为人,而非个人之为人的根据。从孔子的“命运之天”经孟子的“心性之天”达至荀子的“自然之天”,先秦儒家哲学的天论达到了那个时代所能够达到的思想高度,伴之而来的是天的神秘性渐趋消解,人的主体意识日益增强。     

Predictors of Holding Consumer and Mortgage Debt among Older Americans

Using data from the 2000 Health and Retirement Study (HRS), this study examined the probability of older Americans holding consumer and mortgage debt. The specific objectives of this study were to identify to what extent individuals aged 65 and over hold consumer or mortgage debt and to investigate factors that influence the probability of holding consumer or mortgage debt in old age. The results of logistic regression analysis indicated that older individuals who had larger households, had higher levels of education, were aged 65–74, were married, were Black, and were employed, were more likely to hold consumer or mortgage debt. This study concluded that holding one kind of debt is associated with probability of holding another kind of debt.     

重新认识犯罪构成的主观要件

刑事立法中的"知意论"作为判断行为人主观心态的法律依据,在刑事司法操作中有唯心之嫌。刑事司法实践中应该改造因果关系近因说,吸纳美国因果关系理论中的概率标准以及犯罪主观心态分两个层次的合理因素,以客观的行为和行为结果的概然关系为依据判断犯罪心态,体现出主观要件与客观要件在判断是否构成犯罪的推理过程中之交互作用。     

Using Uncertainty Analysis to Improve Consistency in Regulatory Assessments of Criteria Pollutant Standards

Regulatory impact analyses (RIAs), required for new major federal regulations, are often criticized for not incorporating epistemic uncertainties into their quantitative estimates of benefits and costs. “Integrated uncertainty analysis,” which relies on subjective judgments about epistemic uncertainty to quantitatively combine epistemic and statistical uncertainties, is often prescribed. This article identifies an additional source for subjective judgment regarding a key epistemic uncertainty in RIAs for National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)—the regulator's degree of confidence in continuation of the relationship between pollutant concentration and health effects at varying concentration levels. An illustrative example is provided based on the 2013 decision on the NAAQS for fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). It shows how the regulator's justification for setting that NAAQS was structured around the regulator's subjective confidence in the continuation of health risks at different concentration levels, and it illustrates how such expressions of uncertainty might be directly incorporated into the risk reduction calculations used in the rule's RIA. The resulting confidence-weighted quantitative risk estimates are found to be substantially different from those in the RIA for that rule. This approach for accounting for an important source of subjective uncertainty also offers the advantage of establishing consistency between the scientific assumptions underlying RIA risk and benefit estimates and the science-based judgments developed when deciding on the relevant standards for important air pollutants such as PM_2.5.     

地方意义与游客福祉关系研究——以河北碣石山乡村旅游为例

随着地方理论的不断深化以及对个体福祉的广泛关注,地方与福祉的关系成为值得学界深入探讨的问题。在旅游中如何提升游客福祉水平,构建目的地的地方意义,对旅游的可持续发展具有重要意义。以河北昌黎碣石山为例,探讨了旅游目的地地方意义与游客福祉之间的关系,从自然生态、历史文化、休闲游憩、情感认同等多个方面的地方意义出发,探究对游客福祉包括游客身心健康、环境与安全、人际关系、知识拓展和基础设施5个维度的影响,并构建了地方意义对游客福祉影响的模型。通过研究旨在为当地旅游管理和发展提出相应建议,创造和挖掘地方意义,提高游客福祉。     

农民工经济贡献自我评价差异的影响因素研究

随着改革开放的深入，农民工对流入地的经济贡献越来越大。但就农民工个体而言，他们对经济贡献的自我评价受到各种因素的影响而存在差异。本文从农民工的流出/流入地、人力资本、经济回报、社会接纳和社会认同等五个方面入手，通过建立Logistic回归模型，探讨并分析影响农民工对流入地经济贡献自我评价的诸多因素。结果表明，除了流出/流入地对经济贡献自我评价并不显著，其余四项对经济贡献自我评价作用显著。     

Parental Factors,Psychological Well-Being,and Sibling Dynamics: A Mediational Model in Emerging Adulthood

The purposes of the current study were to assess the impact of parental divorce on psychological well-being in general and on sibling dynamics in particular. Driven by recent advances in systems orientation, the study assesses the interconnection between divorce, perceived parental marital satisfaction, psychological well-being, and sibling dynamics and evaluates the interconnection between sibling relationship quality, perceived parental marital satisfaction, and psychological well-being outcomes in emerging adulthood. Three hundred and ninety-two college students completed indices of parental marital status and satisfaction, sibling relationship quality, and psychological well-being. Positive associations between perceived parental marital satisfaction and sibling closeness and communication were found. Perceived parental marital satisfaction was also found to be positively associated with self-esteem and life-satisfaction. Sibling closeness and warmth was positively correlated with satisfaction with life. Perceived parental marital satisfaction was found to mediate the relationship between parental divorce and sibling closeness as well as the relationship between parental divorce and sibling communication. Furthermore, perceived parental marital satisfaction was found to mediate the relationship between sibling closeness and life-satisfaction. The current study contributes to a growing body of literature assessing parental variables, sibling relationships, and well-being in emerging adults. The results highlight the importance of examining the mechanisms through which separation/divorce impact outcomes.