Illustration of Sampling-Based Methods for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis

A sequence of linear, monotonic, and nonmonotonic test problems is used to illustrate sampling-based uncertainty and sensitivity analysis procedures. Uncertainty results obtained with replicated random and Latin hypercube samples are compared, with the Latin hypercube samples tending to produce more stable results than the random samples. Sensitivity results obtained with the following procedures and/or measures are illustrated and compared: correlation coefficients (CCs), rank correlation coefficients (RCCs), common means (CMNs), common locations (CLs), common medians (CMDs), statistical independence (SI), standardized regression coefficients (SRCs), partial correlation coefficients (PCCs), standardized rank regression coefficients (SRRCs), partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs), stepwise regression analysis with raw and rank-transformed data, and examination of scatter plots. The effectiveness of a given procedure and/or measure depends on the characteristics of the individual test problems, with (1) linear measures (i.e., CCs, PCCs, SRCs) performing well on the linear test problems, (2) measures based on rank transforms (i.e., RCCs, PRCCs, SRRCs) performing well on the monotonic test problems, and (3) measures predicated on searches for nonrandom patterns (i.e., CMNs, CLs, CMDs, SI) performing well on the nonmonotonic test problems.     

"意淫"观和《红楼梦》性描写的以诗写小说本质

目前对"意淫"观的研究主要从思想、哲学角度入手,而对其文学价值的分析还远远不够.文章着重梳理了文学史上性描写由<高唐赋>、<神女赋>所开创的诗化传统向<金瓶梅>等小说所代表的世俗化倾向过渡的轨迹,凸显<红楼梦>面对以上两种"文学遗产"所作抉择的特点和意义,提出"意淫"观使<红楼梦>性描写诗意化、象征化,而悬置了其中的性内涵,其本质上是以诗法作小说.     

城乡基本养老保险对老年人主观福利的影响研究——基于CGSS数据的实证分析

该文基于2018年、2021年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据,采用Ordered probit、Ordered logit模型实证分析了城乡基本养老保险对老年人主观福利的影响,研究结果表明,参加城乡基本养老保险对提升老年人主观福利水平有显著的正向影响,并通过异质性分析得出,对年龄在80岁以下、自评健康较低、西部地区、子女数目在两个及以下、无配偶、收入较低的群体影响尤为显著。文章采用倾向得分匹配法和改变变量的方法验证了研究结果的稳健性。基于该文研究结果,建议政府持续推进城乡基本养老保险政策的实施和动态性调整,加大对弱势群体、西部地区的关注度和支持度,促进养老产业的良性发展,加强精神文明建设和医疗建设,深入探索医养结合的养老模式,全面提升老年人的主观福利。     

社会支持与农村幼儿教师长期从教意愿的关系：心理资本与职业幸福感的序列中介效应

为了探究社会支持与农村幼儿教师长期从教意愿的关系,采用社会支持量表、心理资本问卷、职业幸福感量表和教师长期从教意愿量表对488名农村幼儿教师进行调查。结果发现,社会支持、心理资本、职业幸福感和农村幼儿教师长期从教意愿之间彼此呈现显著性正相关;社会支持显著预测农村幼儿教师长期从教意愿;心理资本在社会支持与农村幼儿教师长期从教意愿之间的中介效应显著,职业幸福感在社会支持与农村幼儿教师长期从教意愿之间的中介效应显著,心理资本和职业幸福感在社会支持与农村幼儿教师长期从教意愿之间的链式中介效应显著。因此,社会支持可以直接预测农村幼儿教师长期从教意愿,也可以通过心理资本和职业幸福感形成的序列中介作用预测农村幼儿教师长期从教意愿。     

顺民之欲富民而治

所谓“人欲”,不外乎饮食男女、穿衣吃饭、生老病死的事,是民众求生存、求发展、求富裕的基本需求,是与生俱来的“天性”,并非与“天理”不相容。“天理”就在“人欲”之中,二者是统一的,不可分离的。作为官吏,无论是讲廉政,还是讲勤政,首先要理解和尊重民众的基本欲望,顺民之欲,富民而治。要“宽以养民,严以治吏”。     

语文教育——病树前头万木春

目前的初等语文教育存在着课堂模式化、学生误读作品、教师讲课僵化等弊病,论文提出了相应的对策:一是发挥学生的主观能动性,二是重视朗读,三是教会学生学习语文的基本方法。     

现代绘画的抽象性

现代绘画的抽象性表现在现代绘画各流派之中,侧重主观表现,而非客观反映。画家运用抽象性的线和块面及非描绘性的色彩表现事物的内涵和艺术家的主观情感。这种抽象性也就是画家对理念与感觉进行探索,并使之昭显的最完美的载体,是艺术家运用绘画自身的形式语言(包括色彩、线条、块面等)表现其内心需要的一种方式或手段,并将其看作是适合自己创作的主题。     

Are state mindfulness and state work engagement related during the workday?

Given the growing interest in mindfulness in the workplace and the established importance of work engagement for work-related health and well-being, we explore the relationships between these 2 positive psychological states as they vary naturalistically over the workday. Utilising data from 3 measurement occasions per day (before work, mid-workday, and end-workday), we track natural variations in state mindfulness and state work engagement to create a fine-grained picture about their reciprocal relationships within the workday. A sample of 94 university employees completed multiple diary entries per day, for 10 working days. Data were analysed using multilevel structural equation modelling in MPlus, testing within-person pathways between mindfulness and work engagement across the day. Although state work engagement was a predictor of subsequent state mindfulness, state mindfulness did not predict subsequent state work engagement when controlling for earlier within-day work engagement. Overall, the within-day associations between mindfulness and work engagement were weak. We note the high within-day stabilities of state mindfulness and state work engagement, and discuss whether job and personal resources as well as task features might be moderators in the relationships between these constructs.     

中国劳动人口的学历与幸福 ——基于CGSS(2015)调查数据的经验分析

主观幸福感是主体各层次需要得到满足后所产生的积极性的情绪,并获得持续的快乐体验。本研究主要使用CGSS(2015)对6200多名全国各省劳动人口的学历分布、主观幸福感及其影响因素进行统计分析。研究结果表明,我国劳动人口2015年时平均受教育年限已经超过10年,新增劳动人口的学历逐年提高。自评幸福感平均值在77分以上(满分100分),且存在明显的性别、城乡、婚姻、就业等差异。回归分析验证了以往的研究结论,收入是影响主观幸福感的首要因素,学历对主观幸福感既存在直接效应,也存在显著的中介效应。收入水平可解释大部分差异,但性别例外。女性劳动人口收入水平明显低于男性劳动人口,但前者的自评幸福感水平明显高于后者。