Measuring Expectations

To predict choice behavior, the standard practice of economists has been to infer decision processes from data on observed choices. When decision makers act with partial information, economists typically assume that persons form probabilistic expectations for unknown quantities and maximize expected utility. Observed choices may be consistent with many alternative specifications of preferences and expectations, so researchers commonly assume particular sorts of expectations. It would be better to measure expectations in the form called for by modern economic theory; that is, subjective probabilities. Data on expectations can be used to relax or validate assumptions about expectations. Since the early 1990's, economists have increasingly undertaken to elicit from survey respondents probabilistic expectations of significant personal events. This article discusses the history underlying the new literature, describes some of what has been learned thus far, and looks ahead towards making further progress.     

期刊视角：《七月》《希望》的“现实主义”行迹考叙

卢沟桥事变之后,抗战的需要对文学提出了新的要求,“救亡”的抗战文化规范取代了“五四”以来的“启蒙”,文 学重新承担起了民族解放和新生的使命。胡风积极响应时代的号召,创办了《七月》这本文艺刊物,并在1944 年复刊时更名为 《希望》。《七月》与《希望》在抗战期间有效地发挥了“意识战线”的任务,推动了抗战文艺的发展。本文采用史料学研究方法,从 时代结构、多样化文体、理论的批判与建构三个方面由表及里,多方面考察分析《七月》和《希望》两个刊物的现实主义精神。     

语言还原法--乾嘉学派的阐释学思想之一

周光庆认为,中国经学传统中的解释空间,是以意义信仰为最后皈依,以经世致用为主要目的,以立足现实不断开拓为显著特征,经过历代哲人学者的努力开拓,与封建专制社会相互作用,常常是相当宏大的.周裕锴指出,乾嘉学派的"语言还原法",在重现和复制文本原意、保证理解和解释的客观性方面,对中国阐释学的建构有重要的启示意义;他们提出的"由文字声音训诂而得义理之真",标志着中国传统阐释学最终实现了"语言学转向".严春友则从现象学的视域对中西哲学的两种解释学特征作了分析,认为在中国强解释传统依然存在的情形下,建立那种旨在解释古代文章的作为一门解释技术的"中国解释学"不仅毫无必要,而且也不应该,倒是主张"居中"的现象学和现代解释学值得我们去学习,它或许可以治疗人们在肯定与否定的两极之间跳跃的毛病.李清良鉴于对中西阐释理论的研究目前已成为学术界的一个焦点和热点,指出中国的阐释学研究如果不是从自己的时代问题出发,就不具有充分的合法性;从一种不同于西方近代传统的主体性意识角度切入中外阐释理论的研究,可能是使中国的阐释学研究获得其合法性的一条思路.     

青少年独生子女犯罪新探

本文以青少年独生子女这一特定的社会群体为研究对象,针对其在青少年犯罪中比重日益加大的社会现实,通过分析独生子女的心理特征,进而从社会、家庭和学校教育三个大的方面挖掘出这一特定社会群体的犯罪原因,并提出了预防青少年独生子女犯罪的对策。     

反讽者鲁迅

反讽不仅是一种修辞手法,同时也是一种认知方式和人生态度。作为人生态度的反讽必须具备两个基本特征其一、高度的主体自觉性和主体意识;其二、无限的绝对的否定性。鲁迅的创作过程是审慎的过程,创作主体意识时刻在场,因而其作品呈现出高度的创作者的主体性;鲁迅身处的现实在他眼中已经完全丧失了有效性、实体性,现实对他而言已成为一个荒谬怪诞的世界,鲁迅以他所身处的现实来反抗这个现实本身,因而他对现实的否定是彻底而绝对的,这正是反讽的人生态度;鲁迅在作品中大量地使用了各种反讽手法,所以无论从精神本质还是从创作实践来看,鲁迅都是一个反讽者。     

翻译中的 “主观性识解”——反思中国传统译论意义观

文章以认知语言学有关意义的"识解"观和"主观性/主观化"理论为框架,首先对中国传统译论的意义观进行了反思,然后综合国内外学者对意义的"识解"观和"主观性/主观化"的研究,提出了"主观性识解"这一概念,旨在对原语文本的理解和译语文本的检验提供一个比较客观的评价体系及标准,以避免随想式、经验式的评价。     

Family Well-Being During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Risks of Financial Insecurity and Coping

During the COVID-19 pandemic, families have experienced unprecedented financial and social disruptions. We studied the impact of preexisting psychosocial factors and pandemic-related financial and social disruptions in relation to family well-being among N = 4091 adolescents and parents during early summer 2020, participating in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development^SM Study. Poorer family well-being was linked to prepandemic psychosocial and financial adversity and was associated with pandemic-related material hardship and social disruptions to routines. Parental alcohol use increased risk for worsening of family relationships, while a greater endorsement of coping strategies was mainly associated with overall better family well-being. Financial and mental health support may be critical for family well-being during and after a widespread crisis, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.     

就业质量、社会信任与农民工主观幸福感研究

提升农民工主观幸福感,对我国全面建成小康社会具有助推作用。基于2015年CGSS数据构建o-logit模型考察农民工就业质量、社会信任对主观幸福感的主效应与交互效应,并使用工具变量法消除了研究可能存在的内生性问题。结果表明：（1）农民工就业质量能显著影响主观幸福感。高工作回报、短工作时间、自由的工作环境、明确的工作保障、稳定的工作状态是农民工获得幸福的重要渠道。（2）社会信任程度较高的农民工,其主观幸福感也相对较高。（3）农民工的工作回报、工作时间与对邻居、亲戚、一起参加业余活动人士的信任度存在交互效应,表现为农民工对邻居、亲戚的信任能够增强收入对主观幸福感的正向影响;对邻居、一起参加业余活动人士的信任则能够缓解工作时间对主观幸福感的负面影响。提出政府应从加大维护农民工收入、社会保障力度,丰富农民工精神生活等多个方面入手,提高农民工群体的幸福感。     

The association between experiential and material expenditures and subjective well-being: New evidence from Hungarian survey data

In the last decade, a number of studies using experimental designs have stated that spending money on experiences rather than on material goods tends to make people happier. In this research we used a novel survey approach to examine the relationships between experiential and material expenditures and life satisfaction. In two studies based on cross-sectional survey data from nationally representative samples in Hungary, we estimated linear and non-linear models. We found no significant evidence supporting the greater return received when buying experiences. Even in the non-linear models the difference between the marginal utilities was not statistically significant at any expenditure rate, although the marginal utility of experiential purchases appeared to be linear, whereas the marginal utility of material purchases was rather decreasing. Nevertheless, our results suggest that a reallocation of an average person’s expenditures (spending more on experiences and less on material goods) might be associated with a slightly higher well-being.