论法院案件集体讨论机制的变迁——从审判委员会到法官会议

以审委会为代表的案件讨论机制的实践合理性正日益受到社会情境因素的影响，由此产生审委会决策机制的功能限缩问题。在审委会实际角色作用逐渐转变的过程中，法官会议讨论程序逐渐浮现并得到制度化。法官会议所具有的“正反校验”作用有助于解决疑难案件中法律适用的权威来源问题，很大程度上替代审委会规范法律适用的功能。法院内部案件集体讨论机制的流变，反映的是法院内部权力集中度的差异，即从审委会的功能限缩到法官会议的制度化呈现出从集体决策权到集体讨论权的权力变迁过程。与之相对应的是，法官群体在审判权力方面渐进的规模化、结构化、自主化，集体理性走向个体理性的过程得到强化。     

The ‘right time’ – negotiating the timing of interviews with vulnerable young people

Participant retention is a key factor in determining the success of longitudinal research. Challenges in re-locating and retaining participants over the long term are major issues for researchers working with young people who face adversity and experience frequent changes in circumstances. This article reports on a study of vulnerable young people and their transition into adulthood. Rather than the more conventional schedule-based approach to locating and re-interviewing young people, a relational process, the ‘right time’ framework, was used to facilitate young people's involvement in the study. Embedded in the ‘right time’ framework is recognition of the diverse and fluctuating circumstances that shape young people's availability for interviews. Several case examples are considered which amplify the way that the ‘right time’ framework allowed the research to navigate around these circumstances. The case examples highlight the value young people attached to being involved in the research, the influence on the ‘right time’ of wider relational tensions for young people and the need to negotiate researcher status as a different sort of adult. The ‘right time’ framework contributed to a high retention rate in the study generating a more representative sample and enhancing the subsequent data analysis by providing valuable insights into the lives of these vulnerable young people.     

历史变局、国家兴衰与发展之路——三次千年变局叠加下的中国特色社会主义发展道路

每当先进的发展制度开始取代落后的发展制度时，整个世界格局就会进入重大的转换阶段。在中国五千年的发展历史中，有两次重大的历史变局完全改变了中国历史发展轨迹并深远地影响了当前中国的发展模式。新时代下的中国作为前两次历史变局影响的客体，曾经既是先进发展制度取代落后发展制度的受益者，也经历过作为落后发展制度主体而被先进发展制度冲击的过程。目前世界正处于第三次先进发展制度与落后发展制度交替的历史变局阶段，作为第三次重大历史变局的主体，在三次千年历史变局叠加的背景下，能否有效地认识、适应并改造利用前两次历史变局的经验与教训，构建系统性、科学性、可行性、领先性的中国特色社会主义制度，将决定中国在本次历史变局中能否顺利成为先进发展制度的主体从而实现民族复兴。     

浙江沿海明清卫所驻地方言的声母比较

卫所制度是明清时期重要的军政制度。以浙江沿海明清卫所驻地方言为考察对象，从北到南选取了最有代表性的16个方言点，通过共时和历时的比较，分析和总结浙江沿海明清卫所驻地方言声母在数量和古今分合上的特点。     

丹巴土司制度发展历史考证

丹巴位于“藏彝走廊”的核心区域，其对汉藏民族关系、中央政权与边疆地区的稳定均具有重要影响。自忽必烈时期开始丹巴即开始实行土司制度直至新中国成立，研究丹巴的土司制度发展历史对梳理“藏彝走廊”民族关系及社会发展历史具有重要作用。本文对丹巴土司制度的发展历史进行了考证，并对其境内的四个土司的管辖范围、权力地位进行了梳理，以期对该地区历史发展研究提供一些参考与借鉴。     

制度风险的法律维度: 突破非物质文化遗产保护的瓶颈

以风险理论审视非物质文化遗产的现行法律制度,根据风险产生根源不同,非物质文化遗产保护的制度风险会表现为制度运转失灵风险、制度功能偏差风险和公平性缺失风险。化解制度风险,形成制度风险的维度,不可基于同一个标准,而是需要在大的框架之下论及制度风险的法律管控,需要有针对性地创构"建立私权,善用公权"的多元法律控制体系,并在体系内引入技术规制,创设"非物质文化遗产权",推动民间习惯法与法律制度、公法与私法的互动式发展。     

China’s Choice of Analytical Models for Its Anti-Monopoly Law

Modern analytical models for anti-monopoly laws are a core element of the application of those laws. Since the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People’s Republic of China was promulgated in 2008, law enforcement and judicial authorities have applied different analytical models, leading to divergent legal and regulatory outcomes as similar cases receive different verdicts. To select a suitable analytical model for China’s Anti-Monopoly Law, we need to consider the possible contribution of both economic analysis and legal formalism and to learn from the mature systems and experience of foreign countries. It is also necessary to take into account such binding constraints as the current composition of China’s anti-monopoly legal system, the ability of implementing agencies and the supply of economic analysis, in order to ensure complementarity between the analytical model chosen and the complexity of economic analysis and between the professionalism of implementing agencies and the cost of compliance for participants in economic activities. In terms of institutional design, the models should provide a considered explanation of the legislative aims of the law’s provisions. It is necessary, therefore, to establish a processing model of behavioral classification that is based on China’s national conditions, applies analytical models using normative comprehensive analysis, makes use of the distribution rule of burden of proof, improves supporting systems related to analytical models and enhances the ability of public authorities to implement the law.     

影子银行、地方政府债务及金融发展动态关系研究——基于省级面板VAR模型

基于2004—2017年中国省级面板数据,运用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,使用系统GMM估计、脉冲响应函数、方差分解以及格兰杰因果关系检验等方法分析了影子银行、地方政府债务及金融发展之间的动态关系.结果表明:影子银行、地方政府债务与金融发展水平三者之间存在动态耦合关系.在地方政府融资能力受到约束的情况下,影子银行为地方政府提供了多元的融资方式,在增加政府融资能力的同时提升了政府债务水平;而地方政府债务需求显著推动了影子银行规模的快速发展.同时,影子银行过度扩张危害了金融市场的健康发展,降低金融发展水平,继而使地方政府的融资渠道受到约束.但金融发展并不能有效约束影子银行规模,原因在于,政府融资需求是影子银行的主要动力,若不能控制地方政府的借贷行为则无法从源头解决问题.监管机构在去杠杆的过程中,应该综合考虑影子银行与地方政府债务、金融发展之间的动态关系,如此才能够实现预期的政策效果.     

On the estimation of non linear functions in stochastic volatility models

Abstract

This paper focuses on the inference of suitable generally non linear functions in stochastic volatility models. In this context, in order to estimate the variance of the proposed estimators, a moving block bootstrap (MBB) approach is suggested and discussed. Under mild assumptions, we show that the MBB procedure is weakly consistent. Moreover, a methodology to choose the optimal length block in the MBB is proposed. Some examples and simulations on the model are also made to show the performance of the proposed procedure.     

汇率货币模型的非线性协整关系检验——基于深度GRU神经网络

本文采用深度门控循环单元（GRU）神经网络探讨三种汇率货币模型（弹性价格、前瞻性和实际利率差模型）的非线性协整关系。GRU技术在深度学习中具有智能记忆、自主学习和强逼近能力等优点。为此，本文运用该技术对6组典型浮动汇率制国别数据进行了非线性Johansen协整检验。结果表明，汇率与宏观经济基本面之间存在非线性协整关系，从而说明了货币模型在非线性条件下的有效性，以及先进的深度学习工具在检验经济理论中的优势。