朱有燉杂剧与“西游”故事传播

朱有燉杂剧《文殊菩萨降狮子》《蟠桃会》《辰钩月》诸剧对小说《西游记》成书有着重要影响,许多情节为其所吸收;朱有燉对西游故事的接受存在事实可能,吴昌龄、杨景言所作西游杂剧当为其观览;朱有燉及其杂剧在西游故事传播过程中有着承上启下的意义,是中原文化故事系统融合西北故事系统的结果。     

政治过程视角下的执政党实现人民利益能力建设

实现人民利益有利于执政党的长期执政，而能否实现好人民利益，又要依靠党的执政，依靠党的实现人民利益能力的不断提升。从人民利益实现过程分析，党实现人民利益的能力主要包涵人民利益表达能力、综合能力、决策能力、执行能力以及反馈能力。现阶段执政党要提高实现人民利益能力，需要进一步加强思想建设、组织建设、作风建设以及制度建设，不断开创党的建设这一伟大工程的新局面。     

Connecting for success: Egocentric network types among underrepresented minority students at college

This study investigates the egocentric networks of underrepresented minority students. Adjustment to college for underrepresented minority students often means balancing between the origin (i.e., low-status family) and host (i.e., academic) environments, requiring students to develop different coping strategies. The analysis included 124 Roma university students. We employed the contact diary method and the EgoNet program for mapping students’ egocentric networks. We explored classification among egocentric networks by cluster analysis based on the network proportion of the origin, fellow, and host groups. Three clusters were distinguished. The Host-based cluster proved to be the most advantageous, while the Balancing cluster appeared to be the most disadvantageous in terms of network resources, well-being, and trust. Partners’ ethnicity and educational attainment showed a strong connection with cluster membership. Our results highlight that small fellow communities can successfully interconnect the origin and host groups in students’ egocentric networks.     

Robust block bootstrap panel predictability tests*

This article develops two block bootstrap-based panel predictability test procedures that are valid under very general conditions. Some of the allowable features include cross-sectional dependence, heterogeneous predictive slopes, persistent predictors, and complex error dynamics, including cross-unit endogeneity. While the first test procedure tests if there is any predictability at all, the second procedure determines the units for which predictability holds in case of a rejection by the first. A weak unit root framework is adopted to allow persistent predictors, and a novel theory is developed to establish asymptotic validity of the proposed bootstrap. Simulations are used to evaluate the performance of our tests in small samples, and their implementation is illustrated through an empirical application to stock returns.     

争国本：君臣博弈的政治解读

万历年间册立太子之争被称为＂争国本＂,围绕册立皇长子朱常洛还是皇三子朱常洵,明神宗万历与廷臣进行了旷日持久的博弈。整个事件由廷臣温和的建议开始,经过长期而激烈的斗争,以至于谣言四起,最后借助太后的力量得以解决,按祖制皇长子朱常洵被册立为太子,皇三子朱常洛受封福王。争国本是认识明朝政治运作的典型样本,折射了专制王朝政治运作的内在逻辑。     

从城市崇拜看阎连科的小说创作

阎连科出生在贫困的乡村,由于童年和少年时期的缺失性体验而产生一种向往城市的心理。这种心理在他的小说中体现为贫瘠土地上的青年农民拼命逃离土地、渴望进入城市的迫切心情。他的小说可以让人感受到主人公在逃离土地之路上挣扎的痛苦心声,同时也可体味到作者希冀精神上回归土地的殷切心情。     

Beyond the Preschool Years: Children’s Perceptions About Starting Kindergarten

This article describes a research study that investigated three‐ and four‐year‐old Canadian preschool children’s perceptions about starting kindergarten. Findings from 33 focus‐group discussions suggest that children begin to formulate ideas about starting kindergarten prior to school entry. Children’s responses were grouped according to three themes, play versus academic activities and homework; getting bigger but still needing help; and rules. Overall, the responses highlighted their expectations regarding continuity and discontinuity between the two environments. These findings support the position that children should be given the opportunity to contribute to the planning of transition practices.     

从俞平伯晚年自省和“李希凡自述”想到的(之三)——回应俞平伯晚年的红学研究反思

俞平伯先生晚年的红学自省是真实可信的,应引起红学界高度重视,他的红学研究思想的重大变化同1954年那场对他的批评有内在的因果关系。对当年那场"批俞评红"不能全盘否定,不能只讲负面问题,全面否定其正确性和必要性。现在红学研究的一些乱象正是当年批判过了的错误研究思想、研究方法的泛滥。这种泛滥同对当年的全盘否定不无关系。     

A new stratified three-stage unrelated randomized response model for estimating a rare sensitive attribute based on the Poisson distribution

This article suggests an efficient method of estimating a rare sensitive attribute which is assumed following Poisson distribution by using three-stage unrelated randomized response model instead of the Land et al. model (2011 Land, M., S. Singh, and S. A. Sedory. 2011. Estimation of a rare sensitive attribute using poisson distribution. Statistics 46 (3):351–60. doi:10.1080/02331888.2010.524300.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) when the population consists of some different sized clusters and clusters selected by probability proportional to size(:pps) sampling. A rare sensitive parameter is estimated by using pps sampling and equal probability two-stage sampling when the parameter of a rare unrelated attribute is assumed to be known and unknown.

We extend this method to the case of stratified population by applying stratified pps sampling and stratified equal probability two-stage sampling. An empirical study is carried out to show the efficiency of the two proposed methods when the parameter of a rare unrelated attribute is assumed to be known and unknown.     

Robustness to non-normality and autocorrelation of individuals control charts

This paper studies the effects of non-normality and autocorrelation on the performances of various individuals control charts for monitoring the process mean and/or variance. The traditional Shewhart X chart and moving range (MR) chart are investigated as well as several types of exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) charts and combinations of control charts involving these EWMA charts. It is shown that the combination of the X and MR charts will not detect small and moderate parameter shifts as fast as combinations involving the EWMA charts, and that the performana of the X and MR charts is very sensitive to the normality assumption. It is also shown that certain combinations of EWMA charts can be designed to be robust to non-normality and very effective at detecting small and moderate shifts in the process mean and/or variance. Although autocorrelation can have a significant effect on the in-control performances of these combinations of EWMA charts, their relative out-of-control performances under independence are generally maintained for low to moderate levels of autocorrelation.