A Macro-Economic Framework for Evaluation of Cyber Security Risks Related to Protection of Intellectual Property

The article is based on the premise that, from a macro-economic viewpoint, cyber attacks with long-lasting effects are the most economically significant, and as a result require more attention than attacks with short-lasting effects that have historically been more represented in literature. In particular, the article deals with evaluation of cyber security risks related to one type of attack with long-lasting effects, namely, theft of intellectual property (IP) by foreign perpetrators. An International Consequence Analysis Framework is presented to determine (1) the potential macro-economic consequences of cyber attacks that result in stolen IP from companies in the United States, and (2) the likely sources of such attacks. The framework presented focuses on IP theft that enables foreign companies to make economic gains that would have otherwise benefited the U.S. economy. Initial results are presented.     

网上交易中诚信交易激励机制设计

网上交易中日益增长的欺诈行为阻碍了人们参与网上交易的积极性.激励参与方在网上交易中诚信交易非常必要,而现有的简单反馈机制难以实现激励诚信交易的功能.提出了一种新的网上交易市场中激励诚信交易的机制——注册押金和交易保证金制度.该机制不仅把交易前的交易保证金与交易方信誉指数结合起来防范交易方欺诈,而且重构了每次交易可获得的信誉指数计算方法以激励交易方在长期中保持诚信.通过对该机制下交易方行为的博弈分析,证明了诚信不仅是单阶段博弈的纳什均衡策略,还是长期博弈的子博弈完美纳什均衡策略.最后,通过随机选取eBay市场的交易数据,对机制进行了模拟,并验证了其有效性.     

Understanding Community Resilience from a PRA Perspective Using Binary Decision Diagrams

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a useful tool to assess complex interconnected systems. This article leverages the capabilities of PRA tools developed for industrial and nuclear risk analysis in community resilience evaluations by modeling the food security of a community in terms of its built environment as an integrated system. To this end, we model the performance of Gilroy, CA, a moderate‐size town, with regard to disruptions in its food supply caused by a severe earthquake. The food retailers of Gilroy, along with the electrical power network, water network elements, and bridges are considered as components of a system. Fault and event trees are constructed to model the requirements for continuous food supply to community residents and are analyzed efficiently using binary decision diagrams (BDDs). The study also identifies shortcomings in approximate classical system analysis methods in assessing community resilience. Importance factors are utilized to rank the importance of various factors to the overall risk of food insecurity. Finally, the study considers the impact of various sources of uncertainties in the hazard modeling and performance of infrastructure on food security measures. The methodology can be applicable for any existing critical infrastructure system and has potential extensions to other hazards.     

Information and communications technologies, strategic asymmetry and national security

In the history of warfare, there are a number of examples of strategic uses of asymmetric technologies. Consistent with history and theory, individuals, organizations and nations have spotted opportunities to employ information and communications technologies to gain and exploit asymmetric advantages and to counter asymmetric weaknesses. This article discusses various asymmetries associated with institutions, nations and organizations that influence the ICT-national security nexus. Regulative, normative and cognitive institutions in a country provide various mechanisms that affect the nature of positive and negative asymmetries. Nations and organizations also differ in terms of their capability to assimilate ICT tools to gain positive asymmetries and deal with vulnerabilities of negative asymmetries. Integrative approaches that combine policy and technological measures at various levels are likely to make the world more secure.     

动态车辆路径问题排队模型分析

分析了一类动态车辆路径问题,其中顾客需求以泊松流形式出现,现场服务时间服从一般分布.提出解决该问题的两种策略:顺序服务策略和中点改进策略,利用排队论、几何概率论等领域的知识分别求出了这两种策略的系统时间,并通过仿真数据实验验证了这两种策略的有效性.     

带有交易费用的证券投资最优策略

在假设证券价格服从几何布朗运动的基础上,运用随机最优控制理论,研究了在ｎ 个风险证券金融市场中带有交易费用的证券投资问题,建立了带有交易费用的证券投资最优控制问题的数学模型．首先,简述了文中所涉及的随机最优控制理论,给出了值函数、效用函数和粘性解的定义．然后,在粘性解的意义下,推导出了交易策略有限和交易策略无限两种情况下值函数所满足的偏微分方程,该偏微分方程是由变分不等式描述的自由边值问题．最后,给出了两种情况下基于最优控制问题值函数的证券投资最优策略．本文得到的结果可以用于投资基金管理、金融风险管理等实际工作中,提高决策的科学性     

基于“三性”分析的商业银行经营绩效综合评价模型

流动性、安全性和盈利性(统称为“三性”是商业银行经营管理的基本原则。它们之间既相互依存又相互冲突和矛盾。协调处理这三者之间的关系,一直是评价商业银行经营绩效的难点。本文所建立的综合评价模型,其指标体系涵盖了流动性、安全性和盈利性三个方面,将银行经营绩效层层分解为具体的财务报表数据,合理解决了同一指标在对“三性”产生不同影响时的评分问题。将“三性”之间的制约矛盾量化为具体的模型。     

网上银行发展中的相关因素分析——基于TAM理论

基于技术接受理论(TAM)构建了网上银行客户采纳模型,运用问卷调查的数据对此模型进行了验证。结果表明:网上银行的技术接受模型得到了验证;个人创新特质和感知安全性对网上银行使用意向有显著的影响;将个人创新特质、感知安全性与TAM理论结合起来,在一定程度上可以更好地解释客户网上银行的使用行为。     

全民社保与社区居家养老模式的发展

在人口老龄化的背景下,社区居家养老模式逐渐成为应对老龄化危机的重要方式。但该模式在资金与服务上面临困境,普惠型的全民社保体系为社区居家养老的发展带来了新的契机。养老保险、社会救助和老年津贴等收入保障制度筑牢了居家老年人经济供养的基础,医疗保险、医疗救助和基层医疗卫生服务等医疗保健制度从经济补偿与服务提供双方面支撑起该模式的发展。但是尚不完善的全民社保制度无法完全解决社区居家养老模式面临的问题与挑战。社区居家养老模式的可持续发展出路在于抓住历史机遇,重构参与主体之责任,充分发挥社区的主体作用,以实现健康老龄化。     

“以房养老”模式的运作基础分析

以我国老龄化为背景,分别从物质基础、市场基础、政府的支持和实践基础等四个维度出发,全面分析了在我国推行"以房养老"模式的条件与可行性。首先从我国居民住房概况、城市老人经济情况和我国房地产业着手,论证我国运作"以房养老"模式已具备一定物质基础;第二,运用阿杰恩的合理行为理论,阐述在我国推行"以房养老"模式的群众心理,说明已具备市场基础;第三,从政府态度这个角度阐明"以房养老"模式将得到政府的支持;第四,梳理国内外反向抵押贷款的实践经验与教训。尽管目前我国理论界对以房养老模式还存在着不同的看法,但我国已具备实行以房养老模式的条件和基础,在我国大力推行以房养老具有广阔的前景。