Hellinger distance as a penalized log likelihood

The present paper studies the minimum Hellinger distance estimator by recasting it as the maximum likelihood estimator in a data driven modification of the model density. In the process, the Hellinger distance itself is expressed as a penalized log likelihood function. The penalty is the sum of the model probabilities over the non-observed values of the sample space. A comparison of the modified model density with the original data provides insights into the robustness of the minimum Hellinger distance estimator. Adjustments of the amount of penalty leads to a class of minimum penalized Hellinger distance estimators, some members of which perform substantially better than the minimum Hellinger distance estimator at the model for small samples, without compromising the robustness properties of the latter.     

Does the twin deficit hypothesis hold in the OECD countries under different real interest rate regimes?

This paper explores the validity of the twin deficit hypothesis in selected 25 OECD countries with annual data for 2005–2016 by considering different real interest rate regimes. A non-dynamic panel threshold model, introduced by Hansen (1999), is employed. The novelty of the empirical findings from the present study is that there exists a non-linear relationship between the budget deficit and the trade balance, which is driven by a critical threshold level in the real interest rates. The findings suggest that twin deficit hypothesis holds only under the low real interest rate regime, that is, rises in budget deficits lead to deteriorations in the trade balance when the real interest rate is below the threshold level. When the high real interest rate (i.e. above-the-threshold) regime is concerned, increasing budget deficits give rise to improvements in the trade balance, a finding consistent with the twin divergence hypothesis. Thus, the effect on the trade balance of an expansionary fiscal policy that worsens the budget balance reverses substantially depending on the threshold level of the real interest rates. The major policy implication of this paper is that the policy makers in the selected OECD countries should pay a greater attention to fiscal discipline in order to prevent the trade balance from worsening, because the majority of the countries fall into the low real interest rate regime over the recent years of the sample period (i.e. between 2010 and 2016).     

On the consistency and the robustness in model selection criteria

Abstract

In the model selection problem, the consistency of the selection criterion has been often discussed. This paper derives a family of criteria based on a robust statistical divergence family by using a generalized Bayesian procedure. The proposed family can achieve both consistency and robustness at the same time since it has good performance with respect to contamination by outliers under appropriate circumstances. We show the selection accuracy of the proposed criterion family compared with the conventional methods through numerical experiments.     

动、名的施受关系与句法歧义

汉语的句法歧义可以分析为一些抽象的格式,当这些抽象化的格式在通过语言中的词语转化为具体的言语时会产生 歧义。这些歧义的产生大多是因为动词是一个二阶动词,它与它所联系的名词之间具有复杂的语义关系,这些复杂的语义关 系是造成句子歧义的一个主要原因。通过变换分析,不仅可以消除这种歧义现象,同时还可以弄清二阶动词与所联系的名词 之间的复杂语义关系,从而更深入地研究歧义句式。     

Beyond Rhetorical Differences: A Cohesive Account of Post‐devolution Developments in UK Health Policy

Health is perhaps the most significant policy area to be devolved to decision‐makers in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. Consequently, there has been a great deal of interest in assessing the extent to which health policies (which already differed somewhat prior to devolution) have diverged since 1999. To date, analyses have tended to focus either on health care policies or on specific public health issues (e.g. health inequalities or tobacco control). The story that emerges from this body of work suggests health care policies have diverged significantly, whilst public health policies have remained remarkably similar. This article is one of the first to consider health care and public health policy alongside each other. It reassesses and updates previous analyses, incorporating developments relating to the 2010 general election and the 2007 and 2011 devolved administration elections. Drawing on a variety of textual sources (policy documents, research evidence and corporate literature), our findings differ from existing analyses in suggesting that, despite some noticeable differences in policy rhetoric, approaches to both health care provision and tackling public health problems remain similar. Looking to the future, the article concludes that the common economic challenges, combined with a tight fiscal policy (that remains excepted from devolution), means the similarities in health care provision across the UK are likely to remain more pronounced than the differences. However, current debate about the constitutional settlement, and in particular the prospect of greater fiscal freedoms for the devolved administrations, may provide opportunities for more meaningful divergence in health policy than has been possible hitherto.     

Power analysis of independence testing for three-way contingency tables of small sizes

The first aim of this paper is to introduce a modular test for the three-way contingency table (TT). The second aim is to describe the procedure of generating TT using the bar method. The third aim is on the one hand to suggest the measure of untruthfulness of H₀ and on the other hand to compare the quality of independence tests by using their power. Critical values for analyzed statistics were determined by simulating the Monte Carlo method.     

“二次革命”后孙黄分歧及评价

"二次革命"失败后,孙中山和黄兴这两位辛亥革命的领袖,围绕着诸多问题发生分歧。借助历史参与者的回忆和文献资料来客观地对这些分歧予以评价,对于全面地理解历史人物及反思历史有着重要的价值。     

On Bayesian learning from Bernoulli observations

We provide a reason for Bayesian updating, in the Bernoulli case, even when it is assumed that observations are independent and identically distributed with a fixed but unknown parameter _θ0${\theta }_0$. The motivation relies on the use of loss functions and asymptotics. Such a justification is important due to the recent interest and focus on Bayesian consistency which indeed assumes that the observations are independent and identically distributed rather than being conditionally independent with joint distribution depending on the choice of prior.     

东亚模式的理论分歧与现实发展

东亚模式是一种现实存在,是东亚地区在实现现代化过程中体现出来的共同特质,它在东亚经济的起飞和发展中起了导向作用。但理论界对东亚模式有不同的评价,我们认为应该从理论和现实的比较中分析东亚模式的本质和价值。     

我国中小企业研究理论中存在的偏差——兼论将微型企业从小企业中独立出来的意义

在企业研究理论中,由于缺乏对企业性质的真实把握,忽视了对经微型企业的研究,使得我国对中小企业研究得出的结论的可信度缺乏说服力,表现在对企业性质的理解把握不准确;对中小企业划分标准的合理性缺乏理论依据;对中小企业生存机理缺乏说服力;对中小型企业的社会经济功能的理解把握不准;理论界与区域政府相比,对中小企业的重视程度不够。因此,在我国中小企业研究中,应增加对微型企业的深入探讨。