我国“放管服”改革成效评估与展望

目的/意义 近年来,“放管服”改革已成为学术界研究的热点主题,十九大的胜利召开对“放管服”改革也提出了新的要求和指导建议。因此,系统梳理和比较国内“放管服”改革研究状况,对今后“放管服”改革的理论与实践推进具有重要意义。 设计/方法 选取国内“放管服”改革研究的重要期刊文献,对比分析十九大召开前后国内“放管服”改革研究的整体发展现状及研究内容差异。 结论/发现 十九大召开前后“放管服”改革的研究热点主题存在“差异多、共性少”的特点,而研究团队则表现为“共性多、差异少”,研究内容则呈现出“大同小异”的高度一致性特点。从内涵和问题优化上看,前后阶段表现为“共性少、差异多”;而从实践模式及效果评价上看,前后阶段表现为继承与发扬的关系,后阶段研究是对前期研究的持续深入推进。最后,从强化研究团队间的沟通合作,深入推进案例和实证研究,增加定性与定量相结合的混合研究三个方面提出未来研究展望。     

The ratification of ILO Conventions and the provision of unemployment benefits: An empirical analysis

This article tests the relationship between the ratification of International Labour Organization (ILO) Conventions and the provision of unemployment benefits. Statistical tests focus on two related issues: why countries ratify ILO Conventions on unemployment benefits, and whether ratification influences government spending on unemployment benefits. The main findings are that democracy, region, income, and globalization are the main factors influencing why countries ratify ILO Conventions on unemployment benefits. In turn, the ratification of ILO Conventions is systematically associated with higher spending if countries have ratified more than two Conventions.     

German family policy at the crossroads: analysing the impact of parental leave reform through simulation

Comparative studies of welfare reforms encounter two problems. First, the counterfactual problem is that in the real world schemes and their reforms do not coexist simultaneously and are hard to compare. Second, the contextual problem derives from the absence of comparable measures for change. Microsimulation helps to overcome these problems. It compares policy options – actual reforms or reform plans – simultaneously and provides a comparable measure: the disposable income of model families. This article uses a type–case approach to investigate recent reforms of the German parental leave benefit. Simulation makes those reforms comparable over time and across countries. Results show that the profile of the German scheme is changing from 'general family' towards 'dual-earner' support. Furthermore, the recent reforms make the German scheme converge towards the Swedish leave scheme. The recent reforms introduce a new concept of fairness and a focus on gender equality to German family policies.     

'I made some mistakes . . . but I love them dearly' the views of parents of children in informal kinship care

In-depth semi-structured interviews with 30 parents of children living with relatives in informal kinship care arrangements revealed the parents' views of the reasons for the informal kinship care arrangements, quality of their relationships with the children and their caregivers, their current and future roles in their children's lives, feelings experienced when with and away from the children, positive and negative aspects of kinship care, future goals and dreams for their children, and their assessments of their own strengths and challenges. Results of these interviews suggest several implications for social work practice and research.     

Social expenditures and public administration: are local social assistance costs in Sweden a matter of organisation?

Minas R. Social expenditures and public administration: are local social assistance costs in Sweden a matter of organisation?
Int J Soc Welfare 2010: 19: 215–224 © 2009 The Author(s), Journal compilation © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the International Journal of Social Welfare. This study examines the connection between organisational factors and local social assistance expenditures in Swedish municipalities. The organisation of social assistance units, particularly those for the intake of social assistance inquirers, and the possible implications for local social assistance costs are highlighted. The study is based on interview data from medium‐sized Swedish municipalities combined with register data covering the years from 1997 to 2001. The results show that socioeconomic factors have an overall dominant effect, but also that organisational factors co‐vary with local social assistance expenditures. The results show a cost‐reducing effect for special intake units: firstly, when these units are analysed together with other forms of specialisation and secondly, when staff resources are taken into account. Thus, specialised intake organisation by itself does not play a cost‐reducing role, but does so in combination with certain other factors that characterise the internal organisation of the social welfare office.     

Suspicious minds: local context and attitude variation across Swedish municipalities

Johansson Sevä I. Suspicious minds: local context and attitude variation across Swedish municipalities
Int J Soc Welfare 2010: 19: 225–235 © 2009 The Author(s), Journal compilation © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the International Journal of Social Welfare. This article investigates whether degree of suspicion of welfare abuse relates to local context in Sweden. It is suggested that certain features of Swedish municipalities can create a local information bias influencing individual suspicion of welfare abuse. Prevalence of social problems and political climate are features of the municipal context having the potential to influence opinion formation. Social problems are captured by local unemployment, social assistance and ill‐health rates. Political climate is captured by electoral support for conservatives. The results indicate that local context can influence suspicion of welfare abuse, contexts where social problems are widespread reduce such suspicion. While local political climate seems important in itself, it also interacts with social problem level, increasing suspicion if a conservative political climate and social problems coexist. While social problems seem to generate less suspicion regarding social policy abuse, they also provide ‘raw material’ for political rhetoric regarding suspicion.     

公平分配与居民福利——收入差距对中国居民恩格尔系数的影响分析

居民收入水平不同,恩格尔系数也不同,因此收入分配对社会总体恩格尔系数的影响是不确定的。基于马斯洛层次需求理论证明边际食品消费倾向递减,并且当消费函数为线性或近似线性时,收入差距扩大会降低恩格尔系数。基于省际面板数据的实证分析表明,中国居民边际食品消费倾向递减且消费函数为(近似)线性,居民收入差距扩大降低了居民恩格尔系数(基尼系数升高对恩格尔系数下降的贡献率为22%),从而出现"分配越不平等,居民总体生活水平越高"的矛盾现象。因此在使用总体指标评价居民生活水平时,收入分配指标必须得到同等的重视;在经济发展中,公平和效率必须兼顾才能实现居民福利最大化。     

Forecasting Accuracy of Alternative Techniques: A Comparison of U.S. Macroeconomic Forecasts

This article introduces and discusses a new measure of the relative economic affluence (REA) between income distributions with different means. The REA measure D is applied to the U.S. white and black household income distributions of 1967 and 1979. The measure D shows that the REA of the white households with respect to the black households decreased from 1967 to 1979. This conclusion contrasts with those obtained by applications of distance or quasi-distance functions. It is shown in this study that REA measures and distance functions address different and relevant issues. An REA measure deals with the relation “more affluent than” and defines a partial strict ordering over the set of pairs of income distributions—that is, the relation is asymmetric and transitive—whereas a distance function accounts for the dissimilarity between distributions without imposing an ordering relation and hence fulfills the symmetry property.     

金融知识差异与我国家庭财富积累

通过应用中国城市家庭消费金融调研数据,本文系统的实证检验了改进后的金融知识指标、经济学专业、金融学专业以及家庭理财规划等因素对家庭各项财富积累的影响,并通过使用合适的工具变量进行两阶段估计,验证了这种正向影响的稳健性。此外,实证结果中家庭理财规划以及理财规划时间跨度的正向边际效应表明,理财规划可能是金融知识差异影响家庭财富积累的重要机制。研究结论有利于更准确地理解居民金融知识差异对于家庭福利,特别是退休福利的影响。     

我国国家审计模式重构的探讨

我国的国家审计属于典型的行政模式 ,即各级审计机关隶属于各级政府的行政系统 ,地方各级审计机关受双重领导。随着政治经济体制改革的深入 ,现有的审计模式在许多方面都阻碍了审计机关职能的行使和审计目标的实现 ,审计独立性得不到充分保证 ,因此 ,本文试针对现行审计模式的缺陷 ,对我国国家审计模式提出了新的构想