中国史研究中的后现代倾向

在历史领域,后现代主义通过对现代西方史学及其历史观念的全面批判与反思,使人们日趋看到在现代性遮蔽下的历 史样貌,并逐步建构出一个后现代的历史观与方法论体系。90年代中期以来,美国史学界出现了一些具有明显后现代倾向的中 国史研究,为我们提供了将其史学实践与理论体系进行双向分析的可能。从此路径,我们大体可以窥见后现代主义在中国史领 域所具有的问题意识、研究视角以及应用的界限与限度。     

美好生活需要与社会福利的两维关切

社会福利是满足人民日益增长的美好生活需要的重要环节。对社会福利范围的认识,应当以人的需要为基础。对人的各方面需要的满足,应在社会公平的前提下实现最大化。社会福利的内容包括物质和精神两个层面。物质层面的社会福利,应保证资源的最大化利用和福利分配的公平,同时不限于政府独揽,实现福利制度体系化、整体化。社会福利对人的精神需要的关注,应以人们的主观评价作为标准。国家在社会福利的精神层面应侧重提供精神生活所必需的外部条件,而不能介入精神生活本身。     

Semi-Markov Disability Insurance Models

In this article, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.     

Optimal Binary Prediction for Group Decision Making

We address the problem of optimally forecasting a binary variable for a heterogeneous group of decision makers facing various (binary) decision problems that are tied together only by the unknown outcome. A typical example is a weather forecaster who needs to estimate the probability of rain tomorrow and then report it to the public. Given a conditional probability model for the outcome of interest (e.g., logit or probit), we introduce the idea of maximum welfare estimation and derive conditions under which traditional estimators, such as maximum likelihood or (nonlinear) least squares, are asymptotically socially optimal even when the underlying model is misspecified.     

公平分配与居民福利——收入差距对中国居民恩格尔系数的影响分析

居民收入水平不同,恩格尔系数也不同,因此收入分配对社会总体恩格尔系数的影响是不确定的。基于马斯洛层次需求理论证明边际食品消费倾向递减,并且当消费函数为线性或近似线性时,收入差距扩大会降低恩格尔系数。基于省际面板数据的实证分析表明,中国居民边际食品消费倾向递减且消费函数为(近似)线性,居民收入差距扩大降低了居民恩格尔系数(基尼系数升高对恩格尔系数下降的贡献率为22%),从而出现"分配越不平等,居民总体生活水平越高"的矛盾现象。因此在使用总体指标评价居民生活水平时,收入分配指标必须得到同等的重视;在经济发展中,公平和效率必须兼顾才能实现居民福利最大化。     

Forecasting Multivariate Road Traffic Flows Using Bayesian Dynamic Graphical Models,Splines and Other Traffic Variables

Traffic flow data are routinely collected for many networks worldwide. These invariably large data sets can be used as part of a traffic management system, for which good traffic flow forecasting models are crucial. The linear multiregression dynamic model (LMDM) has been shown to be promising for forecasting flows, accommodating multivariate flow time series, while being a computationally simple model to use. While statistical flow forecasting models usually base their forecasts on flow data alone, data for other traffic variables are also routinely collected. This paper shows how cubic splines can be used to incorporate extra variables into the LMDM in order to enhance flow forecasts. Cubic splines are also introduced into the LMDM to parsimoniously accommodate the daily cycle exhibited by traffic flows. The proposed methodology allows the LMDM to provide more accurate forecasts when forecasting flows in a real high‐dimensional traffic data set. The resulting extended LMDM can deal with some important traffic modelling issues not usually considered in flow forecasting models. Additionally, the model can be implemented in a real‐time environment, a crucial requirement for traffic management systems designed to support decisions and actions to alleviate congestion and keep traffic flowing.     

The estimation of adopted mortality and morbidity rates using model and the phase type law: the Turkish case

Abstract

This paper aims to estimate mortality rate, morbidity-mortality rates of a chronic disease utilizing phase type law in the frame of two and three state processes. The application on commonly used mortality tables in Turkey are adopted to process to estimate the future mortalities with respect to phase type distribution for the purpose of justifying. Using one absorbing state, two and three state Models calculate the time until absorbing of the death and death by phase type distribution for each gender. Consequently, the 3-state probabilities in estimating the mortality-morbidity rates of IHD for Turkish population yield a significant information on the health management and pricing health insurance products.     

金元全真教政治认同的历史考察

政治认同问题是政教关系的重要一面。全真教政治认同的构建是在金元王朝政教生态语境中循序展开的,呈现出理论性(遵国法、尚王道的论说)与实践性(以教辅政的政治支持行为)、动态性与时代性相统一的特征。根据表现形式的不同,全真教政治认同的构建过程可以分为四个阶段,即敬而远之、古朴清修(1159—1183),尊王讲道、赢得信任(1184—1219),以汉接蒙、体道辅政(1220—1256),主动臣服、依附发展(1256—1368)。特别是大蒙古国时期,全真教变被动臣服为主动构建,推动了农耕文化与游牧文化有机结合的元代统一多民族国家政制建设。全真教政治认同的构建是长期以来中国大一统历史语境下佛道佐国扶命、崇尚王道传统的赓续。在金元少数民族政治语境下,全真教成为以忠孝思想为核心的中国传统政治文化基因的重要传承者。全真教的政治认同与金元统治者对它的认可是一个有机互动的过程。以“王律”统合“道律”是全真教成功发迹并取得长足发展的重要政治保障。     

On the efficiency of monte carlo methods using steady state ranked simulated samples

Samawi (1999) showed that the efficiency of Monte Carlo methods of integrals estimation can be substantially improved by using ranked simulated samples (RSIS) in place of uniform simulated samples (USIS). However, in this paper it is shown that substantial improvement of efficiency can be achieved further by using the steady state ranked simulated sample (SRSIS). It appears that the modified Monte Carlo methods using SRSIS provide unbiased and more efficient estimators for the integrals. Some theoretical properties of SRSIS are given. A simulation study is conducted to compare the performance of the methods using SRSIS with respect to USIS, for some examples.     

Development of an innovative process evaluation approach for the Families Improving Together (FIT) for weight loss trial in African American adolescents

This study demonstrates how a multi-theoretical, multilevel process evaluation was used to assess implementation of the Families Improving Together (FIT) for weight loss intervention. FIT is a randomized controlled trial evaluating a culturally tailored, motivational plus family-based program on weight loss in African American adolescents and their parents. Social Cognitive, Self Determination, Family Systems theories and cultural tailoring principles guided the conceptualization of essential elements across individual/family, facilitator, and group levels. Data collection included an observational rating tool, attendance records, and a validated psychosocial measure.ResultsAttendance records (0 = absent, 1 = present, criteria = ≥70%) indicated that 71.5% of families attended each session. The survey (1 = false, 6 = true, criteria = ≥4.5) indicated that participants perceived a positive group climate (M = 5.16, SD = 0.69). A trained evaluator reported that facilitator dose delivered (0 = no, 1 = yes, criteria = ≥75%) was high (99.6%), and fidelity (1 = none to 4 = all, criteria = ≥3) was adequate at facilitator (M = 3.63, SD = 0.41) and group levels (M = 3.35, SD = 0.49). Five cultural topics were raised by participants related to eating (n = 3) and physical activity (n = 2) behaviors and were integrated as part of the final curriculum.DiscussionResults identify areas for program improvement related to delivery of multi-theoretical and cultural tailoring elements. Findings may inform future strategies for implementing effective weight loss programs for ethnic minority families.