Computer simulation of adult sentencing proposals

Several legislative proposals have been introduced in the State of Washington which would alter sentencing procedures for adults convicted of felonies. A major policy concern is the degree to which such new legislation would impact population levels in an already overcrowded prison system. The Sentencing Alternatives Impact Simulation Project developed a series of computer simulation programs to model the sentencing proposals. Results of the simulations were made available to the Legislature and to planners for Adult Corrections. This article describes the major model developed, the data required to run it, and the results obtained from it under a variety of hypothetical conditions. It includes a discussion of the level of utilization made of the results, and some comments on the requirements for maximizing utilization in future simulation projects.     

武器装备建设管理信息集成化问题研究

提高国防实力必须加强武器装备建设,武器装备建设管理信息集成化是实现武器装备现代化建设的有效途径。本文介绍了武器装备建设信息集成化的内涵及作用,分别阐述了CALS、SBA、VR、IMS等先进的装备建设信息集成化技术和方法,给出了建设武器装备信息集成化系统的建议。     

基于产品寿命周期的质量成本模型及其分析

传统的质量成本数学模型通常是根据产品的合格率即产品的质量水平来建模的,无法反映产品质量成本与产品寿命之间的相互关系。本文根据产品所处寿命周期各个阶段质量成本的变化特性,建立产品在整个寿命周期的质量成本数学模型,即产品质量成本随产品寿命随机变量变化的函数关系;提出了尽量缩短产品介绍期时间,在产品成长期推行零缺陷的质量管理要求及设法延长产品成熟期时间的优化设计原则。     

婚姻合约的脆弱性：留守妇女精神出轨和行为出轨

婚姻稳定是社会和谐的基础。然而，伴随着农村人口大规模外出打工，留守妇女问题日益突出。由于夫妻长期分居，一些留守妻子出现精神出轨和行为出轨现象。这些留守妇女看似稳定的婚姻事实上已经处于失序状态，婚姻作为丈夫和妻子之间一种合约的作用受到削弱。本文通过深度访谈，对8个典型个案进行深入剖析，采用叙事性表达方式，深入揭示婚姻合约弱化的本质及其产生的社会后果。在此基础上，提出维护留守妇女婚姻合约、促进社会稳定的对策建议。     

Setting Priorities in Behavioral Interventions: An Application to Reducing Phishing Risk

Phishing risk is a growing area of concern for corporations, governments, and individuals. Given the evidence that users vary widely in their vulnerability to phishing attacks, we demonstrate an approach for assessing the benefits and costs of interventions that target the most vulnerable users. Our approach uses Monte Carlo simulation to (1) identify which users were most vulnerable, in signal detection theory terms; (2) assess the proportion of system‐level risk attributable to the most vulnerable users; (3) estimate the monetary benefit and cost of behavioral interventions targeting different vulnerability levels; and (4) evaluate the sensitivity of these results to whether the attacks involve random or spear phishing. Using parameter estimates from previous research, we find that the most vulnerable users were less cautious and less able to distinguish between phishing and legitimate emails (positive response bias and low sensitivity, in signal detection theory terms). They also accounted for a large share of phishing risk for both random and spear phishing attacks. Under these conditions, our analysis estimates much greater net benefit for behavioral interventions that target these vulnerable users. Within the range of the model's assumptions, there was generally net benefit even for the least vulnerable users. However, the differences in the return on investment for interventions with users with different degrees of vulnerability indicate the importance of measuring that performance, and letting it guide interventions. This study suggests that interventions to reduce response bias, rather than to increase sensitivity, have greater net benefit.     

甘肃省青年人口行为方式分析

通过第一手资料分析了甘肃省青年人口的行为理念、行为方式特点,结合青年人口当前的行为特点与方式,从社会环境、经济因素及体制因素方面分析了产生的原因,最后提出了建议。     

Examining the need for cultural adaptations to an evidence-based parent training program targeting the prevention of child maltreatment

Evidence-based behavioral parent training programs (BPTs) have been recommended as a primary prevention strategy for child maltreatment, and use of BPTs is increasing. As these programs are implemented in new contexts and among new populations, the cultural relevance of these programs and need for adaptations or modifications must be considered. The purpose of this study was to assess the types of cultural adaptations that are being made to a widely implemented BPT, SafeCare, by providers working with families involved in the child welfare system, and to explore the need for more systematic adaptations. Eleven SafeCare providers, from six states, participated in individual, semi-structured interviews. Overall, the providers did not recommend systematic adaptations of the model for specific ethnic groups. However, they provided general and specific information regarding SafeCare components that require adaptation on a case-by-case basis, which is likely to be applicable to many BPTs. More research is needed to develop clear guidance about when and how to assess the need for cultural adaptations and how to institute adaptations that improve rather than weaken evidence-based programs. By sharing data and experiences, purveyors can contribute to the body of knowledge about adaptation.     

Decision making in the newsvendor problem: A cross-national laboratory study

In this paper, we conduct a laboratory experiment using the classic newsvendor problem to examine cross-national differences in inventory ordering patterns between Chinese and American decision makers based on a theoretical examination of the role of the Doctrine of the Mean in Chinese decision making. Drawing on the theory of context-dependent preferences (specifically extremeness aversion), we also revisit the flat-maximum hypothesis of Bolton and Katok [12], i.e., “thinning the set of order options leads to newsvendor decisions that achieve a higher proportion of maximum expected profit.” The results show that the “pull-to-center” effect is more prominent for Chinese than Americans, i.e., average order quantities of Chinese subjects are closer to the anchor of mean demand than those of American subjects. Furthermore, we find that thinning the set of order options such that the optimal order quantity is a middle option, not an extreme option in the choice set, leads to better performance in newsvendor decisions, which complements the flat-maximum hypothesis.     

基于社会学角度的我国投资者行为调查研究

我国股票市场以个体投资者为主,受各种因素的影响,投资者的非理性行为突出,本文通过对我国个体投资者的抽样问卷调查,分析其社会学特征、投资行为特征。结果表明我国投资者有许多独特的特征,主要表现为整体文化程度不高,在投资理念、知识、技巧等方面也不够成熟,普遍存在投机心理,从众行为明显,缺乏长期投资理念等等。这些行为造成证券市场稳定性下降,给股票市场健康发展带来不利影响,最后本文给出了相应的政策建议。     

“鲍曼悖论”及其理论解释——来自我国上市公司的经验证据

本文基于2000-2009年我国十个行业225家上市公司的资产回报率数据,分别采用方差法和序数法度量战略风险,并通过风险/收益计算窗口的提前或滞后安排对鲍曼悖论的存在性及其可能解释进行实证检验。研究发现,由于数据严重左偏,用方差法度量战略风险会导致虚假的实证结果,而基于序数法的元分析结果揭示我国上市公司战略风险和滞后收益间存在显著的负相关关系,支持风险隐性成本说关于战略风险-收益关系的因果论证。