Bayesian Treatment of Model Uncertainty for Partially Applicable Models

This article discusses how analyst's or expert's beliefs on the credibility and quality of models can be assessed and incorporated into the uncertainty assessment of an unknown of interest. The proposed methodology is a specialization of the Bayesian framework for the assessment of model uncertainty presented in an earlier paper. This formalism treats models as sources of information in assessing the uncertainty of an unknown, and it allows the use of predictions from multiple models as well as experimental validation data about the models’ performances. In this article, the methodology is extended to incorporate additional types of information about the model, namely, subjective information in terms of credibility of the model and its applicability when it is used outside its intended domain of application. An example in the context of fire risk modeling is also provided.     

我国企业品牌定位的五层次研究

近年来中国企业的品牌建设取得了可喜的成绩,出现了许多优秀品牌,这些品牌凭借独特、合适的定位取得了成功。但企业在品牌定位方面存在许多误区,如把品牌定位看作产品定位、品牌定位模糊,缺乏差异性和明确的核心价值、品牌盲目延伸导致定位混淆等问题。因此,产品品牌定位必须树立正确的定位理念,应用正确的品牌定位方法。正确的品牌定位方法可分为产品特征定位、物质利益定位、情感利益定位、个性定位以及价值观定位共五个层次。     

能源安全体系建构的理论与实践

在我国能源安全面临的一系列重大问题中，能源领域的政策规划薄弱，法律保障制度建设与管理体制改革滞后，能源供应与能源安全保障体系缺乏相关政策、法律和制度的保障。只有真正做到政策、法律和管理体制“三位一体”，才能确保国家能源安全。本文从能源安全体系建构的理论和实践出发，借鉴西方能源安全战略实践，从政策、法律和管理体制等角度，对我国能源安全体系的内在机制建构进行分析，旨在为我国与中东能源合作提供借鉴与参考。     

Maternal Autonomy- and Connectedness-oriented Parenting Behaviors as Predictors of Children's Social Behaviors in China

The purpose of the study was to examine the contributions of maternal encouragement of autonomy and maternal encouragement of connectedness to the prediction of children's social behaviors. A sample of children (N  =  94), initially aged two years, and their mothers in China participated in the two-year longitudinal study. Child autonomy and connectedness and maternal goal-oriented behaviors were assessed at two years of age through the observation of mother–child interactions. Data on children's social participation, prosocial behavior, aggression, and organization/leadership in peer interactions were collected in a follow-up study when the children were four years of age. It was found that maternal encouragement of connectedness significantly predicted children's sociability and organization/leadership behavior, especially for children who were relatively high on autonomy. The results indicated the developmental significance of socialization goal-oriented behaviors in cultural context.     

“无用”之大用——英语专业文学教育功能浅识

文学之用存在于它的"无用"之中,即在于大用,而非世俗之所谓急功近利之用。本文从文学与语言、文化素养及交际能力等要素间相互关系入手,就英语专业文学教育的功能及功能实现的方法作了初步的探讨。     

浅论近代青海女性社会地位变迁及其原因

近代是青海女性社会地位发生变迁的时期,本文从女性形体观的转变、女性教育等方面,论述了近代青海女性社会地位的变迁及其原因。     

清代满族文学与"京腔京韵"

清代满族人的汉语北京方言表达能力升至高水准,满族作家在文学创作中运用的"京腔"艺术性语言,也跟进于本民族的语言拓展,标示出高水准。清初满族刚刚登上汉语文坛不久,他们的诗人即一反中原文学引经据典、高深莫测之传统,蹊径独辟,是以天然、浑朴、俗畅、晓白著称;在中国文学的发展中,最能代表满人文学成就者,非满族小说莫属,其一以贯之的长处,也首推语言,曹雪芹《红楼梦》、文康《儿女英雄传》,以及清末大量涌现的满人京语白话小说,还有子弟书、八角鼓等俗文艺,无不引领中国近代早期白话创作风骚,开启现代"京味儿"文学先河之功用价值。     

试论少数民族对北京传统民俗文化的影响

从辽代开始 ,北京逐渐成为北方乃至全国的政治、军事和文化中心 ,也成为边疆少数民族文化与中原汉族文化的交汇之地。北京的传统民俗文化 ,特别是服饰、饮食、居住、竞技娱乐、岁时节日等民俗文化 ,都曾深受少数民族 ,尤其是蒙、回、满等民族文化的影响 ,是多元一体中华民族文化的结晶与代表。     

唐宋时期回族先民对西北商业经济的开发与贡献

重视商业经济,是伊斯兰教的特点之一。唐宋时期,伴随着伊斯兰教的传入,回族先民对西北商业经济进行了开发。他们一方面继承了阿拉伯商业的传统,另一方面在新的环境下,又有所创新、有所发展。在长期不断的开发中,为西北区域经济的繁荣与发展,做出了重要的贡献。