Robust models in probability sampling

In the estimation of a population mean or total from a random sample, certain methods based on linear models are known to be automatically design consistent, regardless of how well the underlying model describes the population. A sufficient condition is identified for this type of robustness to model failure; the condition, which we call 'internal bias calibration', relates to the combination of a model and the method used to fit it. Included among the internally bias-calibrated models, in addition to the aforementioned linear models, are certain canonical link generalized linear models and nonparametric regressions constructed from them by a particular style of local likelihood fitting. Other models can often be made robust by using a suboptimal fitting method. Thus the class of model-based, but design consistent, analyses is enlarged to include more realistic models for certain types of survey variable such as binary indicators and counts. Particular applications discussed are the estimation of the size of a population subdomain, as arises in tax auditing for example, and the estimation of a bootstrap tail probability.     

Bias-corrected confidence bands in nonparametric regression

Bias-corrected confidence bands for general nonparametric regression models are considered. We use local polynomial fitting to construct the confidence bands and combine the cross-validation method and the plug-in method to select the bandwidths. Related asymptotic results are obtained. Our simulations show that confidence bands constructed by local polynomial fitting have much better coverage than those constructed by using the Nadaraya–Watson estimator. The results are also applicable to nonparametric autoregressive time series models.     

Estimation of Bowley's Coefficient of Skewness in the Presence of Auxiliary Information

In this paper, we suggest regression-type estimators for estimating the Bowley's coefficient of skewness using auxiliary information. To the first degree of approximation, the bias and mean-squared error expressions of the regression-type estimators are obtained, and the regions under which these estimators are more efficient than the conventional estimator are also determined. Further, a general class of estimators of the Bowley's coefficient of skewness is defined along with its properties. A class of estimators based on estimated optimum values is also defined. It is shown to the first degree of approximations that the variance of the class of estimators based on estimated optimum values is the same as that of the minimum variance of the proposed class of estimators. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed difference estimator over the usual estimator.     

An Efficient Class of Estimators for the Population Mean Using Auxiliary Information in Stratified Random Sampling

This article addresses the problem of estimating the population mean in stratified random sampling using the information of an auxiliary variable. A class of estimators for population mean is defined with its properties under large sample approximation. In particular, various classes of estimators are identified as particular member of the suggested class. It has been shown that the proposed class of estimators is better than usual unbiased estimator, usual combined ratio estimator, usual product estimator, usual regression estimator and Koyuncu and Kadilar (2009 Koyuncu, N., Kadilar, C. (2009). Ratio and product estimators in stratified random sampling. J. Statist. Plan. Infere. 139:2552–2558.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) class of estimators. The results have been illustrated through an empirical study.     

Moments of Order Statistics from Weibull Distribution in the Presence of Multiple Outliers

In this article, we derive exact expressions for the single and product moments of order statistics from Weibull distribution under the contamination model. We assume that X₁, X₂, …, X_{n ? p} are independent with density function f(x) while the remaining, p observations (outliers) X_{n ? p + 1}, …, X_n are independent with density function arises from some modified version of f(x), which is called g(x), in which the location and/or scale parameters have been shifted in value. Next, we investigate the effect of the outliers on the BLUE of the scale parameter. Finally, we deduce some special cases.     

Bias corrected MLEs under progressive type-II censoring scheme

ABSTRACT

Censoring frequently occurs in survival analysis but naturally observed lifetimes are not of a large size. Thus, inferences based on the popular maximum likelihood (ML) estimation which often give biased estimates should be corrected in the sense of bias. Here, we investigate the biases of ML estimates under the progressive type-II censoring scheme (pIIcs). We use a method proposed in Efron and Johnstone [Fisher's information in terms of the hazard rate. Technical Report No. 264, January 1987, Stanford University, Stanford, California; 1987] to derive general expressions for bias corrected ML estimates under the pIIcs. This requires derivation of the Fisher information matrix under the pIIcs. As an application, exact expressions are given for bias corrected ML estimates of the Weibull distribution under the pIIcs. The performance of the bias corrected ML estimates and ML estimates are compared by simulations and a real data application.     

Do we need the constant term in the heterogenous autoregressive model for forecasting realized volatilities?

No-constant strategy is considered for the heterogenous autoregressive (HAR) model of Corsi, which is motivated by smaller biases of its estimated HAR coefficients than those of the constant HAR model. The no-constant model produces better forecasts than the constant model for four real datasets of the realized volatilities (RVs) of some major assets. Robustness of forecast improvement is verified for other functions of realized variance and log RV and for the extended datasets of all 20 RVs of Oxford-Man realized library. A Monte Carlo simulation also reveals improved forecasts for some historic HAR model estimated by Corsi.     

Gender bias in performance evaluations: The impact of gender quotas

The intention behind imposing quotas for women on corporate boards is to close the gender gap in economic participation and help women to be promoted within organizations. However, the broader social psychological literature lends support to ideas that affirmative action policies, such as quotas, may do more harm than good for the beneficiaries. We extend this idea beyond the affected beneficiaries and ask whether this unintended negative effect spills over to women who are not immediate targets of the quota, by signaling incompetence. We develop an experimental design to investigate whether the announcement (study 1) and the implementation (study 2) of a quota for women have a direct negative effect on performance evaluations and hence reinforce the existing gender bias in evaluation. We observed that the performance of women was evaluated significantly lower than that of men. However, this gender bias was limited to sequential (rating) evaluations and was not evident in joint (ranking) evaluations. The quota did not significantly influence the amount of this bias. In addition, we observed more pronounced sexism in males compared to females. Results of study 2 gave a hint to an association between higher sexism and lower evaluations of women’s performance. We also found some evidence for a stronger evaluation bias in females when controlling for sexist attitudes. Hence, our results imply that the bias, which is overall quite robust and strongly pronounced, is still affected by individual gender-related characteristics.     

Robust modified profile estimating function with application to the generalized estimating equation

We consider methods for reducing the effect of fitting nuisance parameters on a general estimating function, when the estimating function depends on not only a vector of parameters of interest, θ$\theta$, but also on a vector of nuisance parameters, λ$\lambda$. We propose a class of modified profile estimating functions with plug-in bias reduced by two orders. A robust version of the adjustment term does not require any information about the probability mechanism beyond that required by the original estimating function. An important application of this method is bias correction for the generalized estimating equation in analyzing stratified longitudinal data, where the stratum-specific intercepts are considered as fixed nuisance parameters, the dependence of the expected outcome on the covariates is of interest, and the intracluster correlation structure is unknown. Furthermore, when the quasi-scores for θ$\theta$ and λ$\lambda$ are available, we propose an additional multiplicative adjustment term such that the modified profile estimating function is approximately information unbiased. This multiplicative adjustment term can serve as an optimal weight in the analysis of stratified studies. A brief simulation study shows that the proposed method considerably reduces the impact of the nuisance parameters.