Early traces of the Second Demographic Transition in Bulgaria: A joint analysis of marital and non-marital union formation, 1960–2004

We explore trends in first-union formation in Bulgaria from 1960, using data from the national Gender and Generations Survey of 2004. We analyse jointly the transition into cohabitation and directly into marriage. The standardized marriage rate falls dramatically from the early 1980s; the corresponding rate of entry into cohabitation has already increased from the early 1960s but (surprisingly) falls moderately toward the end of our period. Cohabitation also tends to last progressively longer in more recent periods. The analysis shows that a pregnancy leads to a dramatic increase in the rate of both kinds of union formation: the increase is by a factor of almost 20 for marriage formation and about 10 for entry into cohabitation, ceteris paribus. Our findings suggest that, in Bulgaria at least, some manifestations of the Second Demographic Transition can be detected as early as the 1980s.     

Achieving styles of Bulgarian managers and politicians: a longitudinal perspective

We explore individual and organizational leadership behaviour in a transitional economy context. Through the instruments of the Achieving Styles/Connective Leadership model (AS/CL), we assess the goal-directed behaviour of Bulgarian managers and politicians who are members of the national Parliament. The study adopts a longitudinal approach since we analyse data collected in 2003 and 2005, and compare it with evidence collected in 1988. The quantitative results reveal that there are no significant differences in the ways Bulgarian politicians have accomplished their objectives in 1988 and in 2003, whereas Bulgarian managers reported a shift in four out of nine achieving styles in 2003 and 2005 compared to 1988. We have found a substantial fit between the individual and the organizational scores, which indicate that Bulgarian managers behave in ways rewarded by their organizations. The results are used to analyse the pace of organizational change within the setting of Bulgarian transitional economy.     

The Trajectory of Post-communist Welfare State Development: The Cases of Bulgaria and Romania

Governments of countries undergoing a post‐communist transition face the dilemma of balancing conflicting demands for greater economic efficiency (to achieve a successful transition to a market system) with demands for enhanced social protection (to legitimize regime change through a visible improvement in living standards which includes vulnerable groups). This paper analyses the transition in Bulgaria and Romania. Unlike other European countries, these countries did not embark on retrenchment policies until the mid‐ to late 1990s, so convergence with policies of spending constraint elsewhere in Europe was belated and partial. The social problems created by strict economic policies, exacerbated by a determination to reorganize the post‐communist welfare states along the lines promoted by international organizations, are now being recognized. Post‐communist governments in South‐eastern Europe have belatedly started to address the social aspects of transition to democracy and the market. This probably reflects the process of regime change in Bulgaria and Romania, which has been characterized as a “two‐step transition to democracy”, with liberal governments only succeeding transformed communist elites in power after a protracted transition.     

Adolescent fertility and religion in Rio de Janeiro,Brazil in the year 2000: The role of Protestantism

We use survey data from Bulgaria and Hungary to investigate the determinants of whether women intend to have a first or a second child and, if so, whether they intend to have the child within the ensuing 2 years or later. These determinants differ significantly by the order and timing of the intended birth. The variables used include measures of anomie and social capital and these appear to be among the factors that determine both whether to have a child and when. There is some evidence that these measures and economic factors are relatively more important in Bulgaria than in Hungary, and that ideational factors are more important in Hungary, particularly in the case of voluntary childlessness.     

The Deinstitutionalization of Children in Bulgaria – The Role of the EU

In this article, the role of the EU as a key factor for the development of the deinstitutionalization of children is explored. A series of hypotheses concerning EU funding, policies and politics are addressed with regards to how the EU as a whole has affected the deinstitutionalization of children. The article explains the presence of association between instigation of public interest and civil mobilization and the launch of a nationwide reform – in particular how advocacy both at national and EU level led to the adoption of a national reform strategy in Bulgaria. Further, the association between the availability of an innovative approach to spending the EU funds and the decision generally to reform the system for institutional care for children is presented. The article explains the difference that €107.6 million will make for Bulgaria's abandoned children if the European structural funds are realized with their full potential. On the other hand, it reveals the challenges that the process is facing. A great deal of non‐governmental organization (NGO) experience concerning EU involvement in the process has been generalized and construed in order to achieve the best possible understanding of the whole process, the key players and the fundamental issues.     

Institutional Change and Debt-based Corporate Governance: A Comparative Analysis of Four Transition Economies

Countries in transition now represent a significant sector of the international political economy. One of the challenges that they face in moving towards market-based systems and institutions is that of transforming the structure of business enterprises into forms more compatible with capitalist economies. Corporate governance is an important part of this. We argue that, certainly during an interim stage whilst equity markets are weak or non-existent, debt finance has a useful role to play. However for this to be possible there are some important institutional changes that are necessary in order to provide the infrastructure within which debt finance can operate effectively and efficiently. We then present an overview and evaluation of the progress of change in four selected transition countries. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Traces of the Second Demographic Transition in Four Selected Countries in Central and Eastern Europe: Union Formation as a Demographic Manifestation

Using data from the first round of the national Gender and Generations Surveys of Russia, Romania, and Bulgaria, and from a similar survey of Hungary, which were all collected in recent years, we study rates of entry into marital and non-marital unions. We have used elements from the narrative of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) as a vehicle to give our analysis of the data from the four countries some coherence, and find what can be traces of the SDT in these countries. The details vary by country; in particular, latter-day developments in union formation patterns did not start at the same time in all the countries, but in our assessment it began everywhere before communism fell, that is, before the societal transition to a market economy got underway in 1990.

The gender division of housework after the first child: a comparison among Bulgaria,France and the Netherlands

ABSTRACT

In our study, we adopt a comparative-longitudinal perspective on the gender division of housework before and after the birth of the first child, exploiting the first two waves of the Gender and Generation Survey and comparing three countries belonging to different gender and welfare regimes (i.e. Bulgaria, France and the Netherlands). We find that childrearing everywhere triggers a re-traditionalisation, generating a more inegalitarian gender division of housework, yet with interesting differences across countries. Fixed-effect regression analyses of the pooled data show that changes when becoming parents are less pronounced in France with respect to Bulgaria and the Netherlands, more pronounced when she is low-educated. Moreover, when countries are analysed separately, it emerges that it is only in the Netherlands that traditionalisation around first childbirth is significantly lower in couples where the woman is middle- and high-educated compared to those where she is low-educated. Economic, cultural and institutional contexts do matter. Traditionalisation and within-couples polarisation is weaker in contexts where non-traditional attitudes are widespread, social policies are more defamilialising and more explicitly addressed also to men, and where part-time is not the main reconciliation strategy, as in France.     

Ten Thousand Tonga: A Longitudinal Anthropological Study from Southern Zambia, 1956–1991

The Gwembe Study was launched in 1956 to monitor the responses of 57,000 Tonga-speakers from the Middle Zambezi Valley to involuntary relocation. Since then, periodic censuses and frequent field visits have generated a wide variety of information. This article examines the demography of four Gwembe Tonga villages from 1956 to 1991, a period characterized first by relocation, then prosperity, and finally by economic hardship. White nuptiality does not respond significantly to socio-economic trends, marital fertility falls sharply during relocation, rebounds with the onset of prosperity, and decreases slowly during the most recent decade of economic hardship. Mortality of the very young and old is also sensitive to such changes. There is striking excess male mortality in all periods, especially among male infants and in particular male twins. The sex ratio at ‘birth’ is 92. This abnormal sex ratio at birth may be the result of conscious sex preference favouring females.     

Elderly Living Arrangements in Bulgaria, The Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, and Romania

Using unique 1990-round census microdata, thepaper describes the household arrangements ofelderly people in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic,Estonia, Finland and Romania. We overview suchtopics as institutionalization, ``headship'rates, ``relationship to reference person,'general household composition, and solitaryliving. Few elders in any country lived withrelatives other than children or spouses. However, elder living arrangements in Finlandexhibit a more ``Northern European' pattern,those in Bulgaria and Romania a ``SoutheasternEuropean' pattern and those in the CzechRepublic a somewhat intermediate pattern. Thesituation in Estonia seemed again distinct.