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11.
Statistik für bivariate gemischte Poisson–Prozesse am Beispiel der Kraftfahrthaftpflichtversicherung
Mathias Zocher 《Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv》2005,89(4):383-402
Zusammenfassung: In diesem Artikel wird der Weg von einem univariaten gemischten Poisson–Prozess, der in vielen Bereichen zum Z?hlen von Ereignissen
benutzt wird, zu einem bivariaten gemischten Poisson–Prozess aufgezeigt. Dazu werden einige Eigenschaften des bivariaten Prozesses
angegeben. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit wird gezeigt, wie mit Hilfe dieses Prozesses der übergang von einem herk?mmlichen Bonus–Malus–System
in der Kraftfahrthaftpflichtversicherung zu einem Bonus–Malus–System mit Berücksichtigung der Schadenart beschritten werden
kann. Dazu wird zuerst eine Modellprüfung der gegebenen Daten vorgenommen und sodann werden für verschiedene mischende Verteilungen
die Verteilungsparameter gesch?tzt und Nettopr?mien angegeben sowie die Prognosegenauigkeit getestet.
Summary: In this paper we show that the model of the bivariate mixed Poisson process arises in a natural way from the univariate mixed Poisson process, which is used in several areas for counting certain events. Furthermore we state some properties of the bivariate process. In the second part of the paper we illustrate how by means of the bivariate mixed Poisson process a bonus–malus system handling different types of accidents can be derived from the classical bonus–malus system in third–party liability insurance. To this end we first check the model on the given data and then estimate distribution parameters and compute net premiums for different mixing distributions as well as test the prediction probabilities.
* Vortrag am Dresdner Forum zur Versicherungsmathematik: Tarifierung in Erst- und Rückversicherung am 25. Juni 2004. Für die Unterstützung zu dieser Arbeit m?chte der Autor Lothar Partzsch, Klaus D. Schmidt (beide Dresden) und Friedemann Spies (München) recht herzlich danken. 相似文献
12.
卢伟 《厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2002,(3):115-122
汉英“祝颂”言语行为及“祝颂语”在词汇、句法、语体、语境、话语结构和文化背景等方面均存在共性与差异。实施“祝颂”言语行为时常出现“语用语言失误”和“社交语用失误” ,其根源在于文化差异 ,即英美文化的基督教信仰、个体主义、自我价值和汉文化的贬己尊人等传统观念之间的差异。 相似文献
13.
文章从加大提案工作宣传力度、加大领导力度、加大督办力度三方面总结了近年北仑区政协提案工作的新做法、新举措 相似文献
14.
There are many models that require the estimation of a set of ordered parameters. For example, multivariate analysis of variance often is formulated as testing for the equality of the parameters versus an ordered alternative. This problem, referred to as isotonic inference, constrained inference, or isotonic regression, has led to the development of general solutions, not often easy to apply in special models. In this expository paper, we study the special case of a separable convex quadratic programming problem for which the optimality conditions lead to a readily solved linear complementarity problem in the Lagrange multipliers, and subsequently to an equivalent linear programming problem, whose solution can be used to recover the solution of the original isotonic problem. The method can be applied to estimating ordered correlations, ordered binomial probabilities, ordered Poisson parameters, ordered exponential scale parameters, or ordered risk differences. 相似文献
15.
In order to assess the effectiveness of government programs designed to reduce disparities in the health care minority groups receive relative to the majority white population, a proper statistical measure should be used. This article proposes a measure of and its accompanying graph, which is readily interpretable and is not affected by the number of minority subgroups examined. 相似文献
16.
We propose four different GMM estimators that allow almost consistent estimation of the structural parameters of panel probit models with fixed effects for the case of small Tand large N. The moments used are derived for each period from a first order approximation of the mean of the dependent variable conditional on explanatory variables and on the fixed effect. The estimators differ w.r.t. the choice of instruments and whether they use trimming to reduce the bias or not. In a Monte Carlo study, we compare these estimators with pooled probit and conditional logit estimators for different data generating processes. The results show that the proposed estimators outperform these competitors in several situations. 相似文献
17.
It is shown that when a parameter lying in a sufficiently small interval is to be estimated in a family of uniform distributions,
a two point prior is least favourable under squared error loss. The unique Bayes estimator with respect to this prior is minimax.
The Γ-minimax estimator is derived for sets Γ of priors consisting of all priors that give fixed probabilities to two specified
subintervals of the parameter space if a two point prior is least favourable in Γ. 相似文献
18.
This paper models household fertility decisions by using a generalized Poisson regression model. Since the fertility data
used in the paper exhibit under-dispersion, the generalized Poisson regression model has statistical advantages over both
standard Poisson and negative binomial regression models, and is suitable for analysis of count data that exhibit either over-dispersion
or under-dispersion. The model is estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. Approximate tests for the dispersion and
goodness-of-fit measures for comparing alternative models are discussed. Based on observations from the Panel Study of Income
Dynamics of 1989 interviewing year, the empirical results support the fertility hypothesis of Becker and Lewis (1973).
Received January 7, 1997 /Accepted April 3, 1997 相似文献
19.
Artifact in client satisfaction assessment is discussed and the results of a study of three factors thought to mediate client satisfaction ratings; (a) general life satisfaction, (b) mode of administration, and (c) psychological symptomatology, are reported. A standard client satisfaction questionnaire (CSQ) was modified to yield parallel forms and was administered orally and in writing to 92 clients in two mental health day treatment programs. Satisfaction ratings obtained from these clients were quite similar to out-patient ratings obtained in previous studies conducted in this setting and using the same measures. Oral administration of the CSQ produced 10% higher satisfaction ratings than written administration (p less than .05) and less missing data (p less than .01). Satisfaction ratings were also obtained using a simple graphic instrument. Graphic ratings were comparable to CSQ ratings. Satisfaction with life in general and level of psychiatric symptoms together accounted for 25% of CSQ variance. The implication of these findings for future client satisfaction research is discussed. 相似文献
20.