Communication, equity and the voluntary provision of a public good by heterogeneous groups

Twenty-four laboratory sessions were conducted to evaluate the roles of communication and group heterogeneity when voluntary contributions determine the level of public good provision by small groups of individuals. Simple heterogeneity has one individual in a group having either greater endowment of resources or a greater preference for the public good than the others. Complex heterogeneity has one individual in a group having both higher endowment and greater preference for the public good. Without communication, members of heterogeneous groups tend to coordinate more on equal contribution shares than predicted by the conventional public goods model but consistent with a model incorporating a preference for equity. The distribution of relative contributions and total payoffs within groups exhibit strong interactions between communication and heterogeneity, leading to less equitable distributions of payoffs as heterogeneity becomes more complex. A model of equity theory helps to organize the results. Results suggest that communication may refocus the objective of group members.     

Trust and financial trades: Lessons from an investment game where reciprocators can hide behind probabilities

This paper shows that if a very small, exogenously given probability of terminating the exchange is introduced in an elementary investment game, more reciprocators will choose the defection strategy. Everything happens as if they “hide behind probabilities” in order to break the trust relationship. Investors do not alter their behavior in a significant way, at least not for a very small external risk. Financial assets all come with a predetermined and contractual probability that by the time when the buyer has to receive the reward for his investment, “bad luck” might have brought the asset value down to zero. In the light of the experimental findings, such trades would not provide a favorable environment for building trust.     

Robust multivariate Bayesian forecasting under functional distortions in the -metric

This paper investigates robustness of multivariate forecasting in the Bayesian framework. The minimax approach is used to construct robust statistical procedures under deviations from hypothetical assumptions. The deviations are defined as functional distortions using the χ²-pseudo-metric. Two cases of deviations are considered: distortions of parameter distribution and distortions of joint distribution of observations and parameters. Explicit forms for the guaranteed upper risk functional are obtained and integral equations for robust prediction statistics are given for both cases.     

C2C模式中不正当信用评价行为的法律规制

信用炒作和恶意评价是C2C模式中不正当信用评价的两种形式.本文在分析对该不正当信用评价行为进行法律规制的正当性的基础上,提出了对其进行法律规制的途径.     

Απόλιδας: an analysis of the international legal framework in the field of statelessness and the U.N.H.C.R.’s communication campaign

In her The Origins of Totalitarianism, Hannah Arendt described the condition of apolidia (statelessness) – through words that still resonate today – as that of persons who have lost their rights because they have fled their homeland. According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (U.N.H.C.R.), there are about 10 million stateless persons worldwide, 600,000 of whom live in the European Union (E.U.). It seems impossible to imagine the concept of statelessness, which although it has a very specific definition in international law, remains a vague notion for the intellect and common sense. This paper will firstly focus on the historical evolution of the concept of nationality under international law. Secondly, it will deal with the international legal framework, and in particular the 1954 and 1961 Conventions on the improvement of the conditions of stateless persons and the prevention of statelessness. It will then turn to the U.N.H.C.R.’s mandate in relation to statelessness, and how this organization contributes to the promotion of an effective right to nationality. Finally, U.N.H.C.R.'s communication campaigns to end statelessness will be analyzed, in order to stress the positive impact of an effective communication strategy.     

Testing equality of two beta binomial proportions in the presence of unequal extra-dispersion parameters

Data in the form of proportions with extra-dispersion (over/under) arise in many biomedical, epidemiological, and toxicological applications. In some situations, two samples of data in the form of proportions with extra-dispersion arise in which the problem is to test the equality of the proportions in the two groups with unspecified and possibly unequal extra-dispersion parameters. This problem is analogous to the traditional Behrens-Fisher problem in which two normal population means with possibly unequal variances are compared. To deal with this problem we develop eight tests and compare them in terms of empirical size and power, using a simulation study. Simulations show that a C(α) test based on extended quasi-likelihood estimates of the nuisance parameters holds nominal level most effectively (close to the nominal level) and it is at least as powerful as any other statistic that is not liberal. It has the simplest formula, is based on estimates of the nuisance parameters only under the null hypothesis, and is easiest to calculate. Also, it is robust in the sense that no distributional assumption is required to develop this statistic.     

HCV不同基因型对慢性丙型肝炎抗病毒治疗疗效的影响

目的：探讨干扰素联合利巴韦林治疗慢性丙型肝炎患者临床疗效的相关影响因素.方法对110例慢性丙型肝炎患者进行PEG-IFNα-2a 180μg/周联合RBV 800~1200 mg/d的标准治疗,并完成治疗后24周随访,同时分析HCV基因型、HCV-RNA定量对持续病毒学应答( SVR)的影响.应用罗氏试剂检测丙肝病毒定量,应用反转录-套式聚合酶链反应( PT-PCR)法检测HCV基因型.结果在110例进行标准联合治疗、并完成治疗后24周随访的慢性丙型肝炎患者中,68例患者获得SVR.其中,HCV 基因1b 型感染者SVR率为51.4%(37/72),HCV基因N-1b 型感染者SVR率为81.5%(31/38);基线HCV-RNA水平<1.0×105 IU/mL的患者SVR率为71.2%(42/59),基线 HCV-RNA水平≥1.0×105 IU/mL的患者SVR率为50.9%(26/51).结论非1b基因型SVR率高于1b基因型;基线低病毒RNA水平(血清HCV-RNA水平<1.0×105 IU/mL)SVR率高于基线高病毒RNA水平(血清HCV-RNA水平≥1.0×105 IU/mL).     

论科学术语的道德维度

语言对于思想具有反作用,术语对于科学的形成及永续发展至关重要。如果术语的混乱导致了交流障碍,学术研究的共同体就无法形成或无法发挥作用。因而,只有通过首先在术语使用上确保交流的畅通无阻,科学研究才能在科学共同体的促进下得到可持续的有效发展。需要进一步强调的是,科学本身对于术语在科学家共同体中的使用有一种伦理要求。根据美国科学家皮尔士所提出的术语伦理学原则,“语词有其义务,同样也有其权利,它们不容践踏。存在一种关于语词的伦理学,因为词语是一种社会构制。科学本身也是社会性事务,如果没有对于所用术语意义的公共理解,就不可能实现科学的繁荣”。谁将一种概念引入科学,谁就有责任发明和界定合适的术语来予以表达；而一旦这种责任得到了尽力履行,任何在原初意义之外使用发明者术语的行为,都将视为对于概念创始人的不公对待和对于科学的冒犯,此共同体中的其他成员有责任对此行为表示轻蔑和愤慨,甚至对于使用那些术语的同义词的人也要侧目而视,显示出某种不满,除非科学能通过那另种表达式的作用而得到积极推进。一套科学术语的规则甚至可以要求,尽量使用其意义不易被误解的词语,即使它们对一般读者显得深奥难懂。作为一项严格精确的事业,科学本来就需要勤奋钻研的学者,那些被科学术语所吓倒的浅薄、懒惰的读者,注定永远无缘于科学之真谛。     

我国出口跨境B2C电子商务代运营发展研究

出口跨境B2C是跨境电子商务发展的新热点,出口跨境B2C经营者在运营中面临远距离和经验等诸多难题。电子商务代运营可以服务模式、整合模式和代理模式等不同模式来推动出口跨境B2C业务的发展,在模式具体运作中面临核心竞争力尚未形成、定位和发展模式不清晰、跨国经营、国际物流和供应链管理等问题。解决上述问题,我国电子商务代运营商需要围绕消费者和卖方的核心利益点构建起核心竞争优势、结合目标市场及产品特征进行准确定位、依托资源整合和方案优化实现国际供应链管理,并注重现有海淘人才引入和培养,实现自身发展的同时推动出口跨境B2C的发展。     

Macroeconomic consequences of terrorism in Pakistan

The objective of the study examines the macroeconomic consequences of terrorism in Pakistan. The study evaluates the short- and long-run relationship between terrorism and economic factors over a period of 1975–2011. Both objectives have been achieved with the sophisticated econometrics techniques including cointegration theory, Granger causality test and variance decomposition, etc. The result reveals that macroeconomic factors, i.e., population growth, price level, poverty and political instability cause the terrorism incidence in Pakistan. However, income inequality, unemployment and trade openness have no long-run relationship with the terrorism incidence in Pakistan. The study may conclude that, for some how, Pakistan's macroeconomic indicators have significant long-run equilibrium with terrorism incidence. The result of Granger causality indicates that except unemployment, all other macroeconomic indicators have unidirectional causality with terrorism incidence. Unemployment has a bi-directional causality with the terrorism incidence in Pakistan. The results of variance decomposition indicate that there exists statistically significant cointegration among macroeconomic factors and terrorism incidence in Pakistan. Among macroeconomic factors, changes in price level exert the largest influence on terrorism in Pakistan. Contrary, the influence of poverty seems relatively the least contribution level for changes in terrorism incidence in Pakistan.