“流浪猫案”裁判的逻辑批判——以证明规则为视角

对引起巨大争议的“流浪猫案”的解读存在多重视角。从证据法角度而言,本案法官对经验法则的认识存在不足,同时对事实推定与证明责任的把握也存在偏差,并且对争议颇大的“按比例判决”理解也有待矫正。这都极大地削弱了判决的说服力和实质上的妥当性。在民事诉讼自由心证主义原则下,我们应当从理论和实践层面严格把握对经验法则的界定,同时正确处理事实推定和证明责任的关系。在程序正当的前提之下,实现判决结果的实体公正。     

Combining QMRA and Epidemiology to Estimate Campylobacteriosis Incidence

The disease burden of pathogens as estimated by QMRA (quantitative microbial risk assessment) and EA (epidemiological analysis) often differs considerably. This is an unsatisfactory situation for policymakers and scientists. We explored methods to obtain a unified estimate using campylobacteriosis in the Netherlands as an example, where previous work resulted in estimates of 4.9 million (QMRA) and 90,600 (EA) cases per year. Using the maximum likelihood approach and considering EA the gold standard, the QMRA model could produce the original EA estimate by adjusting mainly the dose‐infection relationship. Considering QMRA the gold standard, the EA model could produce the original QMRA estimate by adjusting mainly the probability that a gastroenteritis case is caused by Campylobacter. A joint analysis of QMRA and EA data and models assuming identical outcomes, using a frequentist or Bayesian approach (using vague priors), resulted in estimates of 102,000 or 123,000 campylobacteriosis cases per year, respectively. These were close to the original EA estimate, and this will be related to the dissimilarity in data availability. The Bayesian approach further showed that attenuating the condition of equal outcomes immediately resulted in very different estimates of the number of campylobacteriosis cases per year and that using more informative priors had little effect on the results. In conclusion, EA was dominant in estimating the burden of campylobacteriosis in the Netherlands. However, it must be noted that only statistical uncertainties were taken into account here. Taking all, usually difficult to quantify, uncertainties into account might lead to a different conclusion.     

1979-2009年中国地下经济规模测算及影响分析

应用MIMIC模型,利用1979-2009年的统计资料,将地下经济视为一个潜变量,以税收负担、犯罪率、失业率、政府管制、通货膨胀和居民收入作为地下经济的原因变量,以货币流通量及自我就业率作为地下经济的指标变量.研究显示:中国地下经济规模增长幅度较大,1979年中国地下经济规模比例仅为0.78％,2009年则高达19.93％;地下经济规模与官方经济增长率互为因果关系,地下经济对官方经济具有一定的积极作用;地下经济规模与居民收入差距为单向因果关系,即地下经济规模的扩大加剧了现阶段中国居民收入的不平等.     

Five-year all-cause mortality rates across five categories of substantiated elder abuse occurring in the community

ABSTRACT

Elder abuse increases the likelihood of early mortality, but little is known regarding which types of abuse may be resulting in the greatest mortality risk. This study included N = 1,670 cases of substantiated elder abuse and estimated the 5-year all-cause mortality for five types of elder abuse (caregiver neglect, physical abuse, emotional abuse, financial exploitation, and polyvictimization). Statistically significant differences in 5-year mortality risks were found between abuse types and across gender. Caregiver neglect and financial exploitation had the lowest survival rates, underscoring the value of considering the long-term consequences associated with different forms of abuse. Likewise, mortality differences between genders and abuse types indicate the need to consider this interaction in elder abuse case investigations and responses. Further mortality studies are needed in this population to better understand these patterns and implications for public health and clinical management of community-dwelling elder abuse victims.     

Weighing the Success of a National Alzheimer's Disease Service Demonstration

Summary

As the need for long-term care services within the United States has grown dramatically, Congress has consistently deflected the primary responsibility for such care to state governments, local organizations, and, ultimately, the family. This paper examines the impact of the Alzheimer's Disease Demonstration Grants to States (ADDGS) program, a small federally funded initiative within the context of this trend. Although the demonstration can be deemed a huge success relative to the goals of creating new services for an underserved target population, questions are raised about the merits of the program relative to the exploding need for an effective network of long-term care services.     

How Psychological Telehealth Can Alleviate Society's Mental Health Burden: A Literature Review

Mental health professionals must establish new means to reach those in need that face obstacles related to geographical location, time limitations, and health. With the high incidence of mental illness, as well as the hypothesized increase in coming years, telehealth modalities propose a novel and far-reaching alternative to traditional therapy. This article outlines the positive aspects and interdisciplinary possibilities when telehealth is incorporated into mental health practice. Novel outlets including mHealth and the utilization of computer tablets as mental health facilitators are outlined. Considerations for practice including training are discussed, as well as potential future directions for the field. Available data supports telehealth as an effective mode for the treatment of clients who are unable to pursue mental health services in their current form. However, careful consideration and training for the mental health professional is needed if telehealth is to be effectively used to alleviate the mental health burden.     

The Role of Appraisal and Expressive Support in Mediating Strain and Gain in Hispanic Alzheimer's Disease Caregivers

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to examine how appraisal of burden and satisfaction, and perception of expressive support mediate the effects of caregiving on depression, somatic complaints, life satisfaction and personal gain with a sample of Hispanic Alzheimer's disease (AD) primary caregivers. A purposive-snowball sampling technique was used to identify 103 Hispanic caregivers, who completed a self-report questionnaire. A translation-back-translation process was used to translate the instruments into Spanish. Translated instruments were then pilot tested prior to being administered to the participants. Appraisal of burden was found to mediate the effects of caregiving on depression and somatic complaints and had significant direct effects on life satisfaction. Appraisal of satisfaction did not have a mediating effect on any of the measures, but did have a direct effect on depression and personal gain. Expressive support did have a mediating effect on depression, as well as direct effects on somatic complaints and life satisfaction. These findings suggest a need for improving outreach to older minorities and developing culturally sensitive interventions that can improve caregivers' understanding of problematic behavior, thereby altering appraisal of the situation, as well as developing extended systems of support.     

The Impact of Family Functioning on Caregiver Burden among Caregivers of Veterans with Congestive Heart Failure

A cross-sectional study of 76 family caregivers of older veterans with congestive heart failure utilized the McMaster model of family functioning to examine the impact of family functioning variables (problem solving, communication, roles, affective responsiveness, and affective involvement) on caregiver burden dimensions (relationship burden, objective burden, stress burden, and uplifts). Regression analyses indicated that the five dimensions of family functioning were significantly related (p < 0.01) to relationship burden (R ² = .27) and uplifts (R ² = .29). More specifically, increased relationship burden was associated with problems in family roles, and increased uplifts was related to higher levels of affective responsiveness.     

A Critical Review of Family Caregiving of Mental Health Consumers in Hong Kong

ABSTRACT

This paper is a critical review on the family caregiving of mental health consumers in Hong Kong. The writer has a brief review on related studies of family caregiving of mental health consumers. In comparing with those in the U.K. and the U.S.A., family caregivers of mental health consumers in Hong Kong are lonely, stigmatized and unsupported by mental health services and members in the community.     

Demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa: How big will the economic dividend be?

In mid-demographic-transition, many Asian countries enjoyed a large demographic ‘dividend’: extra economic growth owing to falling dependant/workforce ratios, or slower natural increase, or both. We estimate the dividend, 1985–2025, in sub-Saharan Africa and its populous countries. Dependency and natural increase peaked around 1985, 20 years after Asia. The UN projects an acceleration of the subsequent slow falls but disregards slowish declines in young-age mortality and thus, we argue, overestimates future fertility decline. Even if one accepts their projection, arithmetical and econometric evidence suggests an annual, if not total, dividend well below Asia's. The dividend arises more from falling dependency than reduced natural increase, and could be increased by accelerating the fertility decline (e.g., by reducing young-age mortality) or by employing a larger workforce productively. Any dividend from transition apart, low saving in much of Africa (unlike Asia) means that, given likely natural increase, current consumption per person is unsustainable because it depletes capital per person.