明清时期国家与社会关系转型境遇下的回族社区——以历史上西安回族社区文化变迁为视点

本文以历史上西安回族社区为视点,运用人类学的理论和方法,在明清时期国家与社会关系转型的境遇下,分析了回族社区文化的变迁.     

转型中的康区藏族村寨--丹巴县梭坡乡莫洛村考察报告

本文作者考察了四川藏区丹巴县梭坡乡莫洛村社会经济发展的历史与现状 ,发现历史上这一康区藏族村寨是相对独立的经济文化单元 ,单元内生态资源互补、劳力合作、经济互助、婚姻内部流动 ,并曾在外力的影响下不断地进行过变革与调适。现今 ,西部大开发战略和天然林保护、退耕还林等系列工程的实施又将打破这个传统经济单元或文化圈子 ,把小圈子纳入到更大的圈子里 ,莫洛人在困惑与希望中不断地调适自己 ,寻找出路     

花儿会:二元结构下的特定时空--试作花儿会上回族群众的角色转换的分析

回族群众在花儿会上,不同于日常世俗生活的表现说明,花儿会是回族社会生活中二元结构下的特定时空。在这个特定时空里,回族群众完成了角色转换,以弥合现实生活和精神心理上的矛盾。     

信仰变异与民族特征--卡力岗回族民族特征浅议

化隆卡力岗山区的藏族由于改奉了伊斯兰教而随了回族,因此其民族特征发生了根本性的交化,使他们重新确立了以伊斯兰文化为主导的价值取向和终极目标,形成了新的思维方式、行为规范、生活方式和风俗习惯,支撑着这个民族生活大厦的过去、现在和未来,而伊斯兰文化则成为他们赖以共同奋斗的精神纽带。     

单指标非参数期权定价——改进的非参数定价方法

本文建立一种改进的非参数期权定价模型,称为单指标非参数期权定价模型。相比现有非参数回归期权定价模型是期权价格关于各个因素的多元回归函数,本模型通过变量变换把期权价格多个因素指标转换为一个综合变量——单指标,得到期权价格关于单指标的一元非参数回归方程。改进的模型实现了多元非参数期权定价模型的降维和简化了模型计算;还通过多个期限期权的单指标组合解决了非参数估计的样本数量问题;以及通过期限平滑解决了现有非参数定价模型中的日历效应问题。选取上证50ETF期权数据实证分析表明,无论是样本内的估计结果还是样本外的预测结果都比传统的Black-Scholes模型、半参数Black-Scholes模型和多元非参数回归期权定价模型估计效果有提高。     

气候变化背景下的知识产权国际保护之争

在气候变化与知识产权的问题上,厄瓜多尔等发展中国家在2013年6月至2014年10月的TRIPS理事会议中阐述了修订TRIPS协议的意见以求能够最大限度地获取无害环境技术及其产品,但美国等发达国家坚决拒绝修正TRIPS协议,认为非知识产权因素是妨碍发展中国家应对气候变化的主要原因。双方产生分歧的原因不仅在于对各自国家利益的诉求,也在于TRIPS协议和无害环境技术自身因素。考虑到人权保护的需要和当前处于知识积累阶段的现状,应当以技术转让重于技术创新的方式适应和减缓气候变化,修订TRIPS协议以帮助发展中国家获取无害环境技术及其产品。     

Empirical likelihood based detection procedure for change point in mean residual life functions under random censorship

The mean residual life (MRL) function is one of the basic parameters of interest in survival analysis that describes the expected remaining time of an individual after a certain age. The study of changes in the MRL function is practical and interesting because it may help us to identify some factors such as age and gender that may influence the remaining lifetimes of patients after receiving a certain surgery. In this paper, we propose a detection procedure based on the empirical likelihood for the changes in MRL functions with right censored data. Two real examples are also given: Veterans' administration lung cancer study and Stanford heart transplant to illustrate the detecting procedure. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国文学塑造中狼意象的演变及其文化内涵变迁

在中国传统文学中,狼意象往往是充满负性情感的阴险、狡诈的代名词。21世纪以来,关于狼性的文章作品重新审视了狼意象的基本特征。梳理并勾勒狼意象及其文化内涵的演变,可以更为明晰地辨识出“狼”形象在文学、史学、社会学等文化中所扮演角色的变迁历程,从而改变中国文化中狼意象在较长一段历史时间上的单纯文化内涵,使之重新恢复其多元象征意义。     

Issues in Estimating New Keynesian Phillips Curves in the Presence of Unknown Structural Change

Many articles which have estimated models with forward looking expectations have reported that the magnitude of the coefficients of the expectations term is very large when compared with the effects coming from past dynamics. This has sometimes been regarded as implausible and led to the feeling that the expectations coefficient is biased upwards. A relatively general argument that has been advanced is that the bias could be due to structural changes in the means of the variables entering the structural equation. An alternative explanation is that the bias comes from weak instruments. In this article, we investigate the issue of upward bias in the estimated coefficients of the expectations variable based on a model where we can see what causes the breaks and how to control for them. We conclude that weak instruments are the most likely cause of any bias and note that structural change can affect the quality of instruments. We also look at some empirical work in Castle et al. (2014 Castle, J. L., Doornik, J. A., Hendry, D. F., Nymoen, R. (2014). Misspecification testing: non-invariance of expectations models of inflation. Econometric Reviews 33:5–6, 553–574, doi:10.1080/07474938.2013.825137[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) on the new Kaynesian Phillips curve (NYPC) in the Euro Area and U.S. assessing whether the smaller coefficient on expectations that Castle et al. (2014 Castle, J. L., Doornik, J. A., Hendry, D. F., Nymoen, R. (2014). Misspecification testing: non-invariance of expectations models of inflation. Econometric Reviews 33:5–6, 553–574, doi:10.1080/07474938.2013.825137[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) highlight is due to structural change. Our conclusion is that it is not. Instead it comes from their addition of variables to the NKPC. After allowing for the fact that there are weak instruments in the estimated re-specified model, it would seem that the forward coefficient estimate is actually quite high rather than low.     

论审判对象的变更及其控制

在强调诉审分离的近现代诉讼构造下,无论法官还是控诉方,其权力均被设定了合理的界限与范围,体现一种分权制衡的机理,显示一种对被告人防御权利的保障的理路。审判对象发生合理的变更,主要基于两种理路,一是“起诉变更主义”,二是“审判对象狭义论”,进而表现为内容、性质及方式上若干类型的变更。面对审判对象变更,利益受影响最大者是被告人,故而要将审判对象变更控制在合理限度内与正当程序中,有效防范突袭性审判的发生。我国现行审判对象变更实践缺乏合理的控制机制,并常常表现为法院与检察院的一种“沟通”,当务之急是要完善审判对象变更程序,对审判对象变更实行正当性控制。