An Integrated Risk Assessment Model of Township‐Scaled Land Subsidence Based on an Evidential Reasoning Algorithm and Fuzzy Set Theory

Land subsidence risk assessment (LSRA) is a multi‐attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem and is often characterized by both quantitative and qualitative attributes with various types of uncertainty. Therefore, the problem needs to be modeled and analyzed using methods that can handle uncertainty. In this article, we propose an integrated assessment model based on the evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm and fuzzy set theory. The assessment model is structured as a hierarchical framework that regards land subsidence risk as a composite of two key factors: hazard and vulnerability. These factors can be described by a set of basic indicators defined by assessment grades with attributes for transforming both numerical data and subjective judgments into a belief structure. The factor‐level attributes of hazard and vulnerability are combined using the ER algorithm, which is based on the information from a belief structure calculated by the Dempster‐Shafer (D‐S) theory, and a distributed fuzzy belief structure calculated by fuzzy set theory. The results from the combined algorithms yield distributed assessment grade matrices. The application of the model to the Xixi‐Chengnan area, China, illustrates its usefulness and validity for LSRA. The model utilizes a combination of all types of evidence, including all assessment information—quantitative or qualitative, complete or incomplete, and precise or imprecise—to provide assessment grades that define risk assessment on the basis of hazard and vulnerability. The results will enable risk managers to apply different risk prevention measures and mitigation planning based on the calculated risk states.     

A Tiered Framework for Risk‐Relevant Characterization and Ranking of Chemical Exposures: Applications to the National Children's Study (NCS)

A challenge for large‐scale environmental health investigations such as the National Children's Study (NCS), is characterizing exposures to multiple, co‐occurring chemical agents with varying spatiotemporal concentrations and consequences modulated by biochemical, physiological, behavioral, socioeconomic, and environmental factors. Such investigations can benefit from systematic retrieval, analysis, and integration of diverse extant information on both contaminant patterns and exposure‐relevant factors. This requires development, evaluation, and deployment of informatics methods that support flexible access and analysis of multiattribute data across multiple spatiotemporal scales. A new “Tiered Exposure Ranking” (TiER) framework, developed to support various aspects of risk‐relevant exposure characterization, is described here, with examples demonstrating its application to the NCS. TiER utilizes advances in informatics computational methods, extant database content and availability, and integrative environmental/exposure/biological modeling to support both “discovery‐driven” and “hypothesis‐driven” analyses. “Tier 1” applications focus on “exposomic” pattern recognition for extracting information from multidimensional data sets, whereas second and higher tier applications utilize mechanistic models to develop risk‐relevant exposure metrics for populations and individuals. In this article, “tier 1” applications of TiER explore identification of potentially causative associations among risk factors, for prioritizing further studies, by considering publicly available demographic/socioeconomic, behavioral, and environmental data in relation to two health endpoints (preterm birth and low birth weight). A “tier 2” application develops estimates of pollutant mixture inhalation exposure indices for NCS counties, formulated to support risk characterization for these endpoints. Applications of TiER demonstrate the feasibility of developing risk‐relevant exposure characterizations for pollutants using extant environmental and demographic/socioeconomic data.     

高含水期复杂断块油藏剩余油分布及挖潜

高含水期陆相复杂断块层状油藏剩余油分布复杂,油藏模拟难度大。马11复杂断块油藏在油藏精细描述基础上,利用动静态综合分析研究与密网格大规模数值模拟研究相结合,提高了剩余油研究精度和可信度;在此基础上,针对油藏剩余油分布特点并结合当前经济技术条件,部署实施了以调整井、调剖、堵水、油水井大修为主的剩余油挖潜方案,油藏含水上升率大幅度下降、采油速度上升、采收率提高了。     

胡尖山地区长 6、长 4+5 储层有利区预测

摘要：以胡尖山油田长 6、长 4+5 油藏为例，综合应用地质资料、岩芯分析资料、测井资料以及试油资料，开展了长 6和长 4+5 油藏小层划分和对比、单井相分析，建立测井相识别模式，编制小层沉积相平面展布图，进而分析沉积相演化规律；探讨储层砂体展布以及物性分布规律，从而深入认识研究区的储层特征。在此基础上对储层进行流动单元的划分，然后结合试油资料对胡尖山油田长 6、长 4+5 油藏的储层进行有利区域的预测，为油田待开发区域的合理建产开发提供了理论指导     

“期刊承认”VS“共同体承认”:我国学术知识生产动力机制的“悖论”

"共同体的承认"是知识生产的根本动力,在西方"期刊承认"乃"共同体承认"的有机组成部分,学术人努力生产、发表创新性的知识以赢得"共同体的承认".然而在我国,量化考评下的"期刊承认"并未得到大部分学术人的真正认同,已非"共同体承认"的一部分,学术人生产知识主要是为了取得形式化的"期刊承认"以满足各种实用性的目的,而非生产出创新性的知识以赢得实质性的"共同体承认","期刊承认"与"共同体承认"之间的冲突导致了我国学术知识生产动力机制的失灵.为了化解两者之间矛盾,我们一方面应使"同行评议"机制在各种学术评价活动中占据主导地位,另一方面要进一步完善学术期刊的"匿名评审"制度,以弥合"期刊承认"与"共同体承认"之间的断裂,从而真正激励学术知识的生产.     

Need,well‐being and outcomes: the development of policy‐thinking for children's services 1989–2004

This paper describes how government policy thinking about the well‐being of children and young people developed between the Children Act 1989 and the Children Act 2004. These two Acts are milestone statements about how services to children in England and Wales should be delivered. It is an account informed by the author's own experience as a government adviser on children's social care over much of this period and supporting documentation. It traces the strands of government policy thinking about how to deliver services for children from children in need to the articulation of the five Every Child Matters outcomes. It argues that attempts to achieve coordinated service planning for children and young people played a significant role in the formulation of shared objectives and the articulation of child outcomes. However, it argues that looking at real outcomes exposes how children in the UK do relatively badly compared with other rich nations. It questions whether we can realistically expect our services to deliver significantly improved outcomes given the impact of enduring inequality in our society. This paper is dedicated to the memory of David Lambert CBE, former Assistant Chief Inspector of the Social Services Inspectorate in London, who died suddenly on 7 October 2010. He lent me articles to assist me in writing this paper.     

论消费在国际传媒生产总过程中的地位

在国际传媒生产贸易中，传媒产品消费的本质就是价值认可式的精神性消费，在自愿获得消费物的消费中，得到精神与心灵上的满足，实现对一国传媒产品的最优化接受。由此本质出发，总结了消费的六种类型，在分析梳理其逻辑关系的基础上，论证了消费在国际传媒生产总过程中的主导地位。     

A not so strange silence: Why qualitative researchers should respond critically to the qualitative data archive

A driving force behind the establishment of a qualitative data archive in the United Kingdom has been the oral historian, Paul Thompson. He has complained that there is a ‘strange silence’ among qualitative sociologists on re‐analysis, and that many have been reluctant to deposit data. The first part of the paper suggests that the common ethical and practical objections can be overcome in establishing an archive in Australia. However, there is a more serious underlying ideological objection: that archiving promotes and institutionalises a narrow empiricist version of qualitative research. The rest of the paper makes this case by examining teaching materials on a British website, by reviewing Thompson's arguments, and by considering some examples of re‐analysis by sociologists. It is argued that qualitative researchers should respond critically, but that it is possible to address and overcome these problems when developing an Australian archive.     

Vocational education,self‐employment and burnout among Australian workers

We examine the relationship between vocational education and occupational burnout among workers in different forms of employment. Although the self‐employed enjoy higher levels of job autonomy and work‐related satisfaction, we do not know whether they experience lower rates of occupational burnout, and whether vocational education plays a role in this relationship. This latter consideration is important, given that vocational qualifications often lead to self‐employment and prior research demonstrated that formal training may reduce burnout. However, formal education was previously measured in years of schooling, without considering the distinction between academically‐oriented and vocational courses. Therefore, using data from a 2001 national survey of working Australians, we first establish that the self‐employed are significantly less likely to experience burnout. We then demonstrate that some resilience to burnout can be attributed to the attainment of skilled vocational training, net of employment characteristics which are also very important.     

Enriching Resources for the Poor: Lessons from the Philippines

The paper provides an overview of the poverty situation in the Philippines, followed by a brief profile and assessment of two anti‐poverty programs: the Kapit‐Bisig Laban sa Kahirapan‐Comprehensive and Integrated Delivery of Social Services (KALAHI‐CIDSS) program and the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps). Official statistics disclose that the global economic crisis in 2008 adversely affected Filipino households, leading to higher levels of poverty especially in rural areas. In response, government introduced an Economic Resiliency Program with social protection as one component. Sixty‐six social protection programs were launched, including the two under review. KALAHI‐CIDSS and the 4Ps apply poverty reduction strategies that focus on the development of human and social capital, rather than economic capital. They involve processes and relationships that aim to improve the other dimensions of poverty, such as lack of access to opportunities or deprivation of basic human necessities. Qualitative and quantitative reports describe generally favorable outcomes from both programs. However, these gains at the household level need to be supported by relevant policy, enhanced public services and badly‐needed infrastructure programs from government, in order to sustain achievements culled from social protection programs and attain broader developmental impacts.