Combined multiple testing of multivariate survival times by censored empirical likelihood

In each study testing the survival experience of one or more populations, one must not only choose an appropriate class of tests, but further an appropriate weight function. As the optimal choice depends on the true shape of the hazard ratio, one is often not capable of getting the best results with respect to a specific dataset. For the univariate case several methods were proposed to conquer this problem. However, most of the interesting datasets contain multivariate observations nowadays. In this work we propose a multivariate version of a method based on multiple constrained censored empirical likelihood where the constraints are formulated as linear functionals of the cumulative hazard functions. By considering the conditional hazards, we take the correlation between the components into account with the goal of obtaining a test that exhibits a high power irrespective of the shape of the hazard ratio under the alternative hypothesis.     

‘More time for what?’ Exploring intersecting notions of gender,work, age and leisure time among people with cognitive disabilities

This article explores intersecting notions of leisure among middle‐aged people with intellectual disabilities in the setting of the Swedish welfare state. The participants are recipients of long‐term disability services and have experienced the changing ideological frameworks of the welfare effort, which has recently focused on normalisation, inclusion and participation. Structured activities are arranged by disability services in order to normalise living conditions and provide recreation for disabled people. However, the range of activities is constrained by financial resources, by notions of gender and age and by an institutionalised emphasis on the work ethic – leading to constructions of leisure partly as ‘time beside’ where ‘free time’ activities should not interfere with the duties of the working week. The participants' limited resources and their lack of a strong voice limit their ability to demand their legal rights and leave many of them with ‘too much time with too little to do’. Key Practitioner Message: ● A common idea of leisure is the relationship between social and physical activities, well‐being and health; ● People with disabilities, regardless of age, engage in fewer leisure activities than the general population due to a lack of resources; ● Even with legal rights, the lack of a strong voice as well as institutional constraints limit their leisure opportunities.     

农业劳动力老龄化对土地利用效率的影响

通过构建农业劳动力老龄化—要素投入—土地利用效率的理论分析框架,从个体维度、家庭维度实证分析劳动密集型农产品生产中农业劳动力老龄化对土地利用效率的影响。研究表明：随着决策者年龄增加,倾向于依靠自我剥削机制增加自用工投入,家庭老龄化程度负向影响自用工投入、资金投入,对土地利用效率产生消极影响;增加劳动、雇工、资金投入有利于提高土地利用效率,但土地净生产率更依赖于农户自有生产要素。决策者受教育程度、农业机械固定资产原值、苹果收入占比、土地流入、细碎化程度、有效灌溉面积占比、是否获得政府补贴正向影响土地利用效率,决策者年医疗费用、家庭土地规模、自然灾害、村里是否有技术员负向影响土地利用效率。据此,应通过引导土地合理流转、关注农民健康与收益分配化解农业劳动力老龄化的消极影响,通过向农民投资、强化补贴与灾害预警增强农户的土地利用能力。     

Consumer Capital Market Constraints and Guaranteed Renewable Insurance

This paper analyzes a market in which individuals can purchase guaranteed renewable insurance policies to insure against the risk of loss in the current period and the risk of an increased probability of loss. Individuals who cannot borrow will purchase partially guaranteed renewable insurance at most. Relatively impatient individuals may purchase policies with no guaranteed renewability features. Without borrowing, the results are similar regardless of whether consumers can save.     

农村信用社省联社改革的现实审视与路径选择

农村信用社省联社改革虽然在特定历史阶段发挥了积极作用,但由于改革的不彻底性,双重身份的法律定位模糊,股权关系错位造成权责归属倒置,对基层社的独立自主经营造成干扰,难以避免地方政府的干预,地方不断提高农村信用社法人层级的趋势明显,信用社产权制度边缘化,面临＂内部人控制＂和＂外部人干预＂的双重风险。深化省联社改革应渐进式改良,对省联社职能边界重新界定,强化服务、弱化管理,抑制其转型为银行总部的利益冲动。地方政府应通过职能转变合理履行管理职能。     

农户正规信贷约束及其影响因素的实证分析——基于浙、晋、甘三省987户农户的实地调查

发展中国家和地区农户因为缺乏有效的抵押品等原因,普遍面临严重的正规信贷约束。论文基于对浙江、山西、甘肃三省987户农户的抽样调查数据,采用二分类Logistic回归模型,对我国不同地区农户正规信贷约束的情况及影响因素进行了实证分析。分析结果显示,三省农户均面临比较严重的正规信贷约束,农户的风险脆弱性、信用状况以及在农信社是否有存款等因素对农户正规信贷约束在统计上有非常显著的影响。     

民营金字塔企业终极所有者融资约束与非效率投资行为研究

在对金字塔企业终极所有者投资行为进行理论分析的基础上,本文运用我国民营上市公司的非平衡面板数据,考察了民营金字塔企业终极所有者的非效率投资问题。研究发现:在受到融资约束的情况下,终极所有者会发生投资不足的行为;在不受融资约束的情况下,终极所有者出于最大化自身利益的考虑会进行过度投资;而在确保控制权的情况下,终极所有者所持有的现金流权越小,其过度投资越严重;投资者保护环境越差,越有利于终极所有者的过度投资行为。另外,文章运用理论模型探寻了终极所有者隧道挖掘与过度投资之间的关系,研究发现在不受融资约束的情况下二者呈正相关关系。     

Choosing Priors for Constrained Analysis of Variance: Methods Based on Training Data

Abstract. This article combines the best of both objective and subjective Bayesian inference in specifying priors for inequality and equality constrained analysis of variance models. Objectivity can be found in the use of training data to specify a prior distribution, subjectivity can be found in restrictions on the prior to formulate models. The aim of this article is to find the best model in a set of models specified using inequality and equality constraints on the model parameters. For the evaluation of the models an encompassing prior approach is used. The advantage of this approach is that only a prior for the unconstrained encompassing model needs to be specified. The priors for all constrained models can be derived from this encompassing prior. Different choices for this encompassing prior will be considered and evaluated.     

Moving on from ramps? The utility of the social model of disability for facilitating experiences of nature for disabled children

Experiences of nature have been shown to be beneficial for disabled children; however, opportunities for disabled children to experience nature are often limited. The social model of disability may provide a theoretical base for increasing access to nature for pupils at Special Educational Needs (SEN) schools. Using results from interviews conducted with teachers from seven SEN schools, considered alongside responses from interviews with staff from six environmental centres, this paper seeks to identify the specific constraints that may act upon the opportunities for disabled pupils to visit environmental centres. The research finds that a ‘medicalised’ approach to access may impede upon environmental centres’ ability to cater effectively to the needs of SEN school groups. Dialogue between environmental centres and SEN school teachers is recommended as a means of facilitating SEN school group access.     

银行股权关联、银行业竞争与民营企业融资约束

本文以公司参股银行为视角,在行为金融理论、企业组织理论与信贷融资理论相融合的分析框架下,构建基于异质预期的信贷配置模型,探讨了银行股权关联和银行业竞争影响民营企业融资约束的传导机理。以A股民营企业2006~2013年的数据为例,运用Heckman两阶段回归等方法,我们发现:参股银行和提高银行业竞争性均能显著缓解民营企业的融资约束,参股比例越高该效应越强,且两者在缓解融资约束方面存在替代关系。但进一步的分析显示,银行股权关联对资本配置的影响具有两面性:即银行股权关联所带来的融资优势能够减少因资金短缺导致的投资不足,但代理问题的存在也可能导致银行股权关联被部分异化,使其对于资本配置的正向作用减弱甚至被异化为利益寻租的工具。上述结论既丰富了委托代理理论与公司财务理论的相关研究成果,也有助于我们深入理解银行股权关联的"正面效果"和"负面效果"。