中国共产党第三代领导集体关于培养和选拔少数民族干部的理论与政策--中国共产党第三代领导集体民族理论研究之九

中国共产党第三代领导集体关于民族干部的理论和政策的基本观点包括努力造就一支宏大的德才兼备的少数民族干部队伍,是做好民族工作和解决民族问题的关键;培养选择少数民族干部是一件关系全局、具有战略意义的事;少数民族干部队伍状况是衡量一个民族发展的重要标志;培养少数民族干部,既要有计划地扩大数量,更要提高素质、改善结构;要注意培养少数民族中高级干部和各种科技管理人才.     

马克思主义民族理论在新世纪的新发展--学习胡锦涛同志在中央民族工作会议上的重要讲话

胡锦涛同志在中央民族工作会议上的讲话,是新世纪新阶段我国民族工作的纲领性文件,是对党和国家的民族理论和政策一个新的丰富和发展,也是对马克思主义民族理论的新发展.     

Signaling to Partially Informed Investors in the Newsvendor Model

We analyze a signaling game between the manager of a firm and an investor in the firm. The manager has private information about the firm's demand and cares about the short‐term stock price assigned by the investor. Previous research has shown that under continuous decision choices and the Intuitive Criterion refinement, the least‐cost separating equilibrium will result, in which a low‐quality firm chooses its optimal capacity and a high‐quality firm over‐invests in order to signal its quality to investors. We build on this research by showing the existence of pooling outcomes in which low‐quality firms over‐invest and high‐quality firms under‐invest so as to provide identical signals to investors. The pooling equilibrium is practically appealing because it yields a Pareto improvement compared to the least‐cost separating equilibrium. Distinguishing features of our analysis are that: (i) we allow the capacity decision to have either discrete or continuous support, and (ii) we allow beliefs to be refined based on either the Undefeated refinement or the Intuitive Criterion refinement. We find that the newsvendor model parameters impact the likelihood of a pooling outcome, and this impact changes in both sign and magnitude depending on which refinement is used.     

共享单车用户机会主义行为的演化博弈分析

目前为止,共享单车用户的机会主义行为是共享单车能否发展的关键制约因素之一。基于此,尝试用演化博弈理论建立共享单车企业与用户间的演化博弈模型发掘用户的机会主义行为动因及利益相关者作用。研究表明:用户收益是其行为选择的决定性因素,用户机会主义行为收益大于规范行为收益是机会主义行为的产生根源;共享单车企业的激励约束可对用户行为起到调节作用,约束强度将对用户机会主义行为的程度产生负向影响。最后,针对演化博弈模型分析结果,提出了相应管理对策建议。     

Robust signed-rank estimation and variable selection for semi-parametric additive partial linear models

A fully nonparametric model may not perform well or when the researcher wants to use a parametric model but the functional form with respect to a subset of the regressors or the density of the errors is not known. This becomes even more challenging when the data contain gross outliers or unusual observations. However, in practice the true covariates are not known in advance, nor is the smoothness of the functional form. A robust model selection approach through which we can choose the relevant covariates components and estimate the smoothing function may represent an appealing tool to the solution. A weighted signed-rank estimation and variable selection under the adaptive lasso for semi-parametric partial additive models is considered in this paper. B-spline is used to estimate the unknown additive nonparametric function. It is shown that despite using B-spline to estimate the unknown additive nonparametric function, the proposed estimator has an oracle property. The robustness of the weighted signed-rank approach for data with heavy-tail, contaminated errors, and data containing high-leverage points are validated via finite sample simulations. A practical application to an economic study is provided using an updated Canadian household gasoline consumption data.     

论我国行政诉讼调解的理论革新

行政诉讼调解长期以来一直是一个莫衷一是的热点问题。在行政诉讼法即将修改之际,探讨这一问题具有重要的现实意义。文章总结了现行行政诉讼不适用调解原则的成因、困境,指出我国现行行政诉讼不适用调解原则陷入困境的理论误导的结果,并结合域外相关制度的经验,得出行政诉讼调解不仅是一种国际经验,而且应当奠定在服务行政理论基础之上才能得到正确的说明。     

A Learning Curve Analysis of Expert System Use*

In this article, we study how an expert system affects novice problem solving in a financial risk analysis domain. We demonstrate that novice performance is improved after exposure to an expert system. Further, we show that novice performance continues to improve when the system is withdrawn. By comparing learning curves for people with exposure to those without, we can assess how much the system has benefitted its users. We demonstrate a quantitative methodology to measure the increment of learning due to the use of an information technology. We also explore the issue of how expertise is transferred from the system to the user.     

Marketing Communication Intensity Across Industries

Marketing communication intensity (i.e., the ratio of advertising and promotional expenditures to sales) has been an important topic for both business managers and academics. Here, we investigate cross-sectional and time-series variation of communication intensity due to: type of offering (product versus service) and type of market (consumer versus industrial). Overall, we find that both of these factors affect variation of communication intensity across industries and over time. However, the effect of market type is much more dramatic than the effect of offering type. Such knowledge about patterns in communication intensity levels helps managers make decisions about how much to spend on advertising and promotion.     

A Rejoinder to Forman on AHP,with Emphasis on the Requirements of Composite Ratio Scales*

In an earlier paper [11], the problems of rank reversals and invalid composite priorities in AHP were addressed by modifications to the AHP procedure. That solution was subsequently criticized [5]. In this paper, we rebut these criticisms, and we show how rank reversals in AHP can arise merely from the process of normalizing local priorities.     

Stochastic and Intransitive Behavior in a State-Preference Model of Asset Choice*

Most models of investor behavior assume a time-state independent utility function and result in a deterministic solution where a given set of inputs uniquely specifies the decision. In contrast, a state preference model using a time-state dependent utility function is derived in this paper. The model allows the investment choice decision to be analyzed in a game theoretic context. The general solution is a mixed strategy which allows for a probabilistic interpretation of the decision. The approach presented in this paper can accommodate anomalies such as intransitivity of preference and satisficing as rational behavior. An example of a possible implementation is given along with interpretations of the outcomes.