浅谈人口学资料室的发展方向

本文简述了我校计划生育系人口学资料室的现状及作用,并从几个方面提出了今后的发展方向。     

Household demographic factors as life cycle determinants of land use in the Amazon

This paper seeks to broaden the application of demographyto environmental studies by complementing existing macro-level approaches, which feature aggregate populations, with a micro-level approach that highlights household life cycles. I take up the case of small farm households in the Brazilian Amazon to present a theoretical framework that identifies demographic characteristics which dispose families to engage in different forms of land use as household age structures change. Empirical models show that net of theeffects of farmer background, neighborhood context, institutional context, and off-farm incomes, demographic variables indicative of the household life cycle exert significant effects on the prominence of land uses with distinct environmental ramifications. The findings not only reveal micro-level demographic factors which affect Amazon land cover, they yield implications forfuture changes in rainforest landscapes in northern Brazil, and suggest household life cycle models as an avenue for further demographic research on environmental change in Latin America and other contexts.     

海南省出生实名登记信息管理系统应用效果研究

对海南省出生实名登记信息管理系统应用状况实地考察的结果表明：通过多部门联动运行该系统,理清了出生人口信息,提高了人口统计质量,增强了目标考核效果,搭建了公共服务网络平台,实现了信息资源共享。作为国内首创的出生人口数据采集信息化手段,该系统在海南省的成功推行得益于省决策层的解放思想、求真务实,部门间的统筹合作和群众的积极参与,但出生实名登记能否在全国推广将受到人口流动和住院分娩率两个客观因素的制约。     

论陶行知人口科学思想

陶行知的适度人口理论、“人口统制”管理理论、人口教育理论组成了他独特的人口科学思想。可以说,陶行知是现代中国科学的人口思想的奠基者     

Separating age,period, and cohort effects in white U.S. fertility, 1920–1970

Four models are developed to describe the odds transformation of period- and age-specific fertility rates as products of age, period, and cohort effects. These are applied to data for white U.S. women age 15–44 from 1920 to 1970, with equal weights given to each rate. All models which include age fit subsets of the data extremely well. Per effect, the incorporation of periods improves the fit much more than the incorporation of cohorts. It is shown that first differences are invariant in two-effect models, and second differences are invariant in the three-effect models.     

Markov's Inequality and Chebyshev's Inequality for Tail Probabilities: A Sharper Image

Markov's inequality gives an upper bound on the probability that a nonnegative random variable takes large values. For example, if the random variable is the lifetime of a person or a machine, Markov's inequality says that the probability that an individual survives more than three times the average lifetime in the population of such individuals cannot exceed one-third. Here we give a simple, intuitive geometric interpretation and derivation of Markov's inequality. These results lead to inequalities sharper than Markov's when information about conditional expectations is available, as in reliability theory, demography, and actuarial mathematics. We use these results to sharpen Chebyshev's tail inequality also.     

Consumption and population age structure

In this paper, the effects on aggregate consumption of changes in the age distribution of the population are analysed empirically. Economic theories predict that age influences individuals’ saving and consumption behaviour. Despite this, age structure effects are rarely controlled for in empirical consumption functions. Our findings suggest that they should. By analysing Norwegian quarterly time series data, we find that changes in the age distribution of the population have significant and life-cycle-consistent effects on aggregate consumption. Furthermore, controlling for age structure effects stabilises the other parameters of the consumption function and reveals significant real interest rate effects.      

Temporal and spatial trends in the sex ratio at birth in Greece, 1960–2006: exploring potential environmental factors

Numerous studies have shown that the sex ratio at birth, defined as the relative number of male and female births, may be dramatically lower for small cohorts with high chemical exposures. Meanwhile, reports from different countries have shown recent declines in male births for the general population, perhaps implicating environmental factors. The sex ratio at birth has, therefore, been suggested by some as a sentinel environmental health indicator. This paper examines variation observed in sex ratio at birth in Greece since 1960. The analysis incorporates a number of demographic parameters including the age and nationality of the mother, partnership status and birth order, as well as urbanisation level. The latter is considered an indirect indicator of potential environmental incidence. Our main finding is that the sex ratio in Greece has experienced a slight, albeit statistically significant, downward trend, especially since 1980. Further, this decline is not attributable to changing demographics. Geographical differentiations were found to be quite significant: the sex ratio is significantly higher in rural areas compared to urban centres or Greater Athens, and this difference is increasing over time. We offer a preliminary interpretation suggesting that these temporal and spatial trends may, at least partly, be attributed to chemicals’ exposure due to higher levels of indoor and outdoor air pollution and different consumption habits encountered in urban settings. We argue that such possibilities warrant further research with explicit measures of exposure.

中国未来“第二次人口红利”探讨——基于人口年龄结构与居民储蓄关系的分析

我国人口形势的新变化直接影响未来经济发展的潜力和活力。在人口环境发生剧烈变化的背景下开展关于第二次人口红利的讨论和研究非常必要。本文在以往相关文献的研究基础上,定位分析我国储蓄率的高水平特征,从人口变化、政策、社保等多个角度探讨未来储蓄持续走高的可能性。并利用全国30个省市地区的面板数据重点分析人口结构与居民储蓄之间的关系,发现老年抚养比与居民储蓄之间存在显著的负相关关系。文章得出结论,“第二次人口红利”在我国难以实现,抓紧开发第一次人口红利、拉动经济增长才是我国现阶段社会经济发展的重点。