THE FAILURE TO PREDICT THE GREAT RECESSION—A VIEW THROUGH THE ROLE OF CREDIT

Much has been written about why economists failed to predict the latest crisis. Reading the literature, it seems that this crisis was so obvious that economists must have been blind not to see it coming. We approach this failure by looking at one of the key variables in this analysis, the evolution of credit. We compare the conclusions reached in the recent literature with those that could have been drawn from an ex‐ante analysis. We show that the effect of credit on the business cycle cannot be exploited from a policymaker's point of view.     

生态翻译视域下隐喻翻译研究——以《围城》英译本为例

隐喻作为一个非常巧妙的语言应用现象,非常值得研究。本文拟从生态翻译学对其进行研究。生态翻译学是一个从生态学角度研究翻译活动、翻译现象和翻译理论的新的研究范式。本文着重从适应/选择,三维转换和整体/关联的角度对《围城》这一文学巨著中典型的隐喻现象的翻译进行讨论,旨在开拓隐喻研究的新视角     

Inflation projections for monetary policy decision making

Many central banks set inflation targets over the medium term and inflation projections are a key input for monetary policy decision making. In this paper, we present the procedures used by the Spanish Central Bank staff to project consumer price inflation. We also provide some illustrations of their policy uses, such as fan charts, deflation probabilities and the monitoring of inflation targets.     

普通高校公共体育教学的改革实验与结果分析

从体育课程设置、教学内容、教学组织形式、学生体育考核等方面对“三阶段式”体育教学改革进行分析,可以发现,“三阶段式”体育教学具有实效性,符合现阶段学生实际。由此也发现,体育教学方法、手段只有尽可能体现快乐健康教育的特点,才能取得好的教学效果。     

Feminism and science in Masters of Sex

This article examines the fictional characterization of the real-life sex researchers and scientists William H. Masters and Virginia E. Johnson in the Showtime television program Masters of Sex (2013–2016). The historical Johnson had a complicated relationship with second-wave feminism: she disdained the movement and was interested primarily in improving heterosexual marriages and the sex lives of married couples. The Johnson character speaks in a language of postfeminism with minimal interest in collective action and broader social change. However, second-wave feminists later used her and Masters’ research in order to support their own beliefs about sexual autonomy and freedom, within and beyond marriage and heterosexuality. The television program demonstrates Johnson’s importance to both phases of her and Masters’ research—in the first phase, when they are based in a hospital and university environment, and in the second, when they establish their own research institute and raise funds directly from the clients that they serve. Johnson exemplifies postfeminist depictions of ambitious women in prestige television, her aim to have a successful career and marriage conflict, and while she is willing to compromise scientific values to serve her own goals, her male colleagues temper that ambition in service of “objective” science.     

罗默与马克思剥削理论的比较分析

罗默是分析马克思主义学派的主要代表人物。他一方面认为马克思的思想至今依然具有强大的生命力,另一方面又彻底否定马克思剥削理论建立的基石——劳动价值论,并提出一种基于非劳动价值论的剥削理论。通过分析罗默剥削理论和马克思剥削理论在剥削存在的判断依据、剥削的源泉和目的、研究方法科学合理性以及剩余价值特殊表现形式四个方面的异同,指出罗默剥削理论既没有认识到剥削的本质,也没有充足理由驳倒马克思的劳动价值论。     

Enabling robust assessment of QTc prolongation in early phase clinical trials

Since the implementation of the International Conference on Harmonization (ICH) E14 guideline in 2005, regulators have required a “thorough QTc” (TQT) study for evaluating the effects of investigational drugs on delayed cardiac repolarization as manifested by a prolonged QTc interval. However, TQT studies have increasingly been viewed unfavorably because of their low cost effectiveness. Several researchers have noted that a robust drug concentration‐QTc (conc‐QTc) modeling assessment in early phase development should, in most cases, obviate the need for a subsequent TQT study. In December 2015, ICH released an “E14 Q&As (R3)” document supporting the use of conc‐QTc modeling for regulatory decisions. In this article, we propose a simple improvement of two popular conc‐QTc assessment methods for typical first‐in‐human crossover‐like single ascending dose clinical pharmacology trials. The improvement is achieved, in part, by leveraging routinely encountered (and expected) intrasubject correlation patterns encountered in such trials. A real example involving a single ascending dose and corresponding TQT trial, along with results from a simulation study, illustrate the strong performance of the proposed method. The improved conc‐QTc assessment will further enable highly reliable go/no‐go decisions in early phase clinical development and deliver results that support subsequent TQT study waivers by regulators.     

高校体育教师自我评价体系的探究

高校体育教师教学质量的优劣与自身的专业水准有着直接的关系,而影响教师专业发展的关键又在于对教师的评价体系是否科学、合理,是否有利于教师水平的不断提高与发展．本文阐述体育教师自我评价的必要性,探究建立自我评价体系,促进提高教师的专业成长．     

Semiparametric inference of proportional odds model based on randomly truncated data

This paper studies the estimation in the proportional odds model based on randomly truncated data. The proposed estimators for the regression coefficients include a class of minimum distance estimators defined through weighted empirical odds function. We have investigated the asymptotic properties like the consistency and the limiting distribution of the proposed estimators under mild conditions. The finite sample properties were investigated through simulation study making comparison of some of the estimators in the class. We conclude with an illustration of our proposed method to a well-known AIDS data.     

Characterizations based on order statistics under sampling without replacement

In this paper, we consider finite populations and investigate their characterizations by regressions of order statistics under sampling without replacement. We also investigate some asymptotic results when the size of the population goes to infinity.