人口年龄结构、消费结构与产业结构协调发展研究——基于系统耦合协调度模型测度

文章采用我国30个省（自治区、直辖市）2005—2018年面板数据,运用三系统耦合模型,测算人口年龄结构、消费结构与产业结构三系统耦合协调度。测算结果显示：我国人口年龄结构-消费结构-产业结构三系统耦合协调度水平较低,但总体呈逐年上升态势。为进一步揭示三系统耦合协调度形成动因,通过考察人口年龄结构、消费结构、产业结构两两组合的两系统耦合协调对三系统耦合协调的影响,采用空间重心模型分析各两系统的空间匹配程度,发现由于消费结构-产业结构两系统的空间匹配程度增加,逐步凸显了消费结构-产业结构耦合协调对三系统耦合协调的支撑作用;而人口年龄结构-产业结构两系统空间配置效率的下降阻碍了其对三系统耦合协调支撑作用。厘清了三系统耦合协调度形成的动因,并为提高其耦合协调度水平提供了对策措施。     

天一阁本《石鼓文》之递藏误读及拓本年代

天一阁本《石鼓文》,自全祖望发现后,先后被数次重摹,甚至在光绪年间重摹至国学韩文公祠与石鼓原物交相辉映。因此本毁于咸丰兵燹,后世多以重摹本为参考,故对其递藏少有梳理。全祖望是此本的最早著录者,但其所录诸家递藏时,存在顺序颠倒,致使后世对此本递藏之误读延续200余年。递藏者的改变,使得此本的传拓年代成为新问题。借助钱大昕、张燕昌等相关文献,基本可以推测此本的年代应在北宋中后期的70余年间。     

Parental age and offspring mortality: Negative effects of reproductive ageing may be counterbalanced by secular increases in longevity

As parental ages at birth continue to rise, concerns about the effects of fertility postponement on offspring are increasing. Due to reproductive ageing, advanced parental ages have been associated with negative health outcomes for offspring, including decreased longevity. The literature, however, has neglected to examine the potential benefits of being born at a later date. Secular declines in mortality mean that later birth cohorts are living longer. We analyse mortality over ages 30–74 among 1.9 million Swedish men and women born 1938–60, and use a sibling comparison design that accounts for all time-invariant factors shared by the siblings. When incorporating cohort improvements in mortality, we find that those born to older mothers do not suffer any significant mortality disadvantage, and that those born to older fathers have lower mortality. These findings are likely to be explained by secular declines in mortality counterbalancing the negative effects of reproductive ageing.     

New evidence about effects of reproductive variables on child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa

There is still considerable uncertainty about how reproductive factors affect child mortality. This study, based on Demographic and Health Survey data from 28 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, shows that mortality is highest for firstborn children with very young mothers. Other children with young mothers, or of high birth order, also experience high mortality. Net of maternal age and birth order, a short preceding birth interval is associated with above average mortality. These patterns change, however, if time-invariant unobserved mother-level characteristics of importance for both mortality and fertility are controlled for in a multilevel–multiprocess model. Most importantly, there are smaller advantages associated with longer birth intervals and being older at first birth. The implications of alternative reproductive ‘strategies’ are discussed, taking into account that if the mother is older at birth, the child will also be born in a later calendar year, when mortality may be lower.     

新时代网络空间意识形态话语权的掌控策略

新时代网络空间意识形态话语权呈现出话语主体多元化、话语载体多样化、话语内容复杂化的新特点,也面临着国内网络空间意识形态话语权争夺日益激烈、国际网络领域西方意识形态话语权渗透交锋不断、我国网络空间意识形态话语权建设应对乏力等新挑战。要掌控新时代网络空间意识形态话语权,就必须提高话语主体素养以引导网络意见领袖发挥正能量,拓展话语载体多样性以提升主流意识形态话语权的影响力,坚持话语议题守正创新以打造社会主义意识形态优势话语,推进话语表达方式转换以实现中国话语标准的“国际化”。     

信息时代高校外语教师职业发展新模式

文章简要陈述了信息时代高校外语教师职业发展趋势和信息时代对高校外语教师职业发展的挑战,并再对信息时代高校外语教师职业发展新模式的实现途径进行了有效探究。     

THE USE OF AGGREGATE DATA TO ESTIMATE GOMPERTZ‐TYPE OLD‐AGE MORTALITY IN HETEROGENEOUS POPULATIONS

We consider two related aspects of the study of old‐age mortality. One is the estimation of a parameterized hazard function from grouped data, and the other is its possible deceleration at extreme old age owing to heterogeneity described by a mixture of distinct sub‐populations. The first is treated by half of a logistic transform, which is known to be free of discretization bias at older ages, and also preserves the increasing slope of the log hazard in the Gompertz case. It is assumed that data are available in the form published by official statistical agencies, that is, as aggregated frequencies in discrete time. Local polynomial modelling and weighted least squares are applied to cause‐of‐death mortality counts. The second, related, problem is to discover what conditions are necessary for population mortality to exhibit deceleration for a mixture of Gompertz sub‐populations. The general problem remains open but, in the case of three groups, we demonstrate that heterogeneity may be such that it is possible for a population to show decelerating mortality and then return to a Gompertz‐like increase at a later age. This implies that there are situations, depending on the extent of heterogeneity, in which there is at least one age interval in which the hazard function decreases before increasing again.     

施蛰存的诗歌翻译及其对当代诗歌的影响

施蛰存的文学创作是从诗开始的,他的文学翻译工作也是从诗开始的。施蛰存的文学翻译主张兼收并蓄,但他更热衷于现代主义诗歌的译介,他所翻译的外国现代主义诗歌作品一直影响到新时期的朦胧诗。     

关于江南奏销案的再思考

对于清初江南奏销案,一般论者大多从清廷对士绅的政策层面着眼。文章则将此案置于清代财政制度建构的过程之中加以考察,认为江南奏销案并不是一个孤立的事件,清廷之所以在全国范围内发动奏销案是因为清初财政肩负双重使命,这种双重使命导致国家异常重视财政制度的完善和执行。江南奏销案对绅士的打击比较广泛是江南特殊的情形使然。     

博客信息传递的优势与不足分析

博客是继超链接之后又一网络信息传递的优秀待变,它出现后迅速风靡全球。作为一种全新网络媒介的交流形式,博客所需的技术门坎较低,更多的是重在创意。本文从博客的发展与特点出发对博客信息传递的优势和不足进行了分析,并指出了博客今后的发展方向。