一种新型道路缓和曲线的线形分析与评价

缓和曲线作为一种空间过渡曲线,其设计的合理与否直接关系到车辆行驶的平稳性和旅客舒适性。介绍了利用缓和曲线边界条件确定其代数方程式的一种通用方法：根据边界条件列出曲率待定方程,并利用曲率边界条件确定出缓和曲线曲率方程,然后对曲率方程二次积分得到缓和曲线的方程。此方法适用于推导缓和曲线方程,可为公路缓和曲线线形设计提供参考。采用此方法设计出了一种连接直线与直线的新型缓和曲线,并建立5种不同工况,以横向加速度及其时变率为评价指标,对新型缓和曲线和回旋线进行了行驶动力学性能评价,通过比较分析得出这种新型缓和曲线在行驶动力学性能上明显优于回旋线,为高速公路缓和曲线的线形选择提供参考。     

中国能源消费水平空间差异及成因研究

本文运用离差指标来测度中国能源消费水平空间差异,并将离差平方之和分解为地区内差异和地区间差异,使得能够测算总体差异的地区构成;将离差绝对值之和分解为各影响因素贡献份额,使得能够找出影响地区差异的主要影响因素。研究结果表明中国能源消费水平空间差异不断扩大;能源消费水平总体差异主要是由三大地区内部差异引起的,其中地区内部差异主要来自于东部地区;人均资本存量是影响我国能源消费水平空间差异的主要因素。本文据此提出相应的政策建议。     

台湾社会政治文化结构变迁及其冲突性特征

20世纪以来,台湾社会政治文化经历了结构性的变迁,其中国传统政治文化与台湾本土政治文化的关系结构发生了转变。这种政治文化结构的改变是伴随政治转型的发生而完成的。政治转型初期政党竞争的方式及其对社会的政治宣传,将长期以来形成的政党之间的敌视心态与对抗方式传递给社会,使台湾社会出现"争议政治",凸显其冲突性政治文化的特征。冲突性政治文化的加剧最终势必摧毁台湾的政治发展,故政治文化的改造问题须提上议事日程。     

论国家权力与少数民族的自我发展

当现代社会把"平等"作为自己的目标追求及其存在的合法性基础时,就应看到"平等应当不仅是表面的,不仅在国家的领域中实行,它还应当是实际的,还应当在社会的、经济的领域中实行"[1]。这充分展示了实现各民族政治、经济和文化的平等发展权力在国家目标设置中的重要地位。忽视这一问题,不仅会导致国家经济发展目标设置的失误,而且会导致对国家权力的合法性基础的质疑。特别是社会转型期,这一问题已经成为少数民族和民族地区普遍关注的热点问题。     

The relationship among CO2 emissions,electricity power consumption and GDP in OECD countries

This paper proposes a panel vector error correction model investigation of a quadratic relationship linking CO₂ emissions, GDP levels and electric power consumption. We find that two independent long-run relationships emerge from the data. Since the null of homogeneity across units with regard to long-run elasticities is strongly rejected, we proceed by clustering countries according to the signs of the estimated coefficients. The approach allows us to form three groups: in the first there is evidence of an optimistic scenario, where both CO₂ emissions and electric power consumption are bound to decrease in the long-run. An optimistic scenario for emissions reduction is also provided in the second cluster where, however, the long-run relationship between income and electric power consumption shows an U-shaped pattern, instead. Finally, the third cluster can be associated with a much worrying scenario where per capita CO₂ is expected to grow with income. A joint consideration of long-run parameters and causality links allows us to propose cluster-tailored policy suggestions.     

Youth and parent perceptions of aftercare supports at discharge from residential care

While much is known about youth struggles after reintegration into the home and community settings following stays in out‐of‐home care, little is known about appropriate supports for aftercare, or parent (see Note ¹ ) and youth perceptions during this critical transition period. This study seeks to begin to address these questions through surveys evaluating youth (n = 48) and parent (n = 48) perceptions of (i) transition planning, family preparedness and aftercare; (ii) youth preparedness for the transition period across major life domains (e.g. education, health care, relationships); and (iii) the importance of specific aftercare supports and services. Results indicate differences between youth and parents on perceptions of need for continued supports, likelihood of participation in aftercare programs; and youth preparedness for success in relationships, family and independent living domains. In contrast, similarities were found on youth and parent ratings regarding the importance of specific services and supports, with both groups indicating supports in education as most important and supports in mental health as least. Study limitations, future research and implications are provided.     

Impact of Having a First Child on Maternal Depressive Symptoms: Does the Birth of a Mother's First Baby Increase Symptoms of Depression in the Mother?

Previous studies on the impact of having a first child on a mother's psychological well‐being has not been extensively examined in Korea. The present study aims to understand how having a first child is associated with a first‐time mother's depressive symptoms when compared with their childless counterparts. A sample of 140 women aged 20–40 years, married, and childless in wave 1 of the Korean National Welfare Panel Study (KOWEPS) was selected. The depressive symptoms of women who became mothers between wave 1 and wave 2 of the study and those who remained childless were compared using CES‐D. Two different types of analytical methods (i.e. pooled OLS, fixed effects model) were employed. The results consistently indicated that Korean mothers were more depressed after the birth of the first child than wives without a child. Employment status and satisfaction of social relationship were associated with women's depression in the fixed effect model. The consistent finding that shows a negative association between having a first child and maternal depressive symptoms provides empirical grounds for the development of prevention and intervention programs for first‐time mothers. Implications of the study findings are discussed.     

Energy statistics: A class of statistics based on distances

Energy distance is a statistical distance between the distributions of random vectors, which characterizes equality of distributions. The name energy derives from Newton's gravitational potential energy, and there is an elegant relation to the notion of potential energy between statistical observations. Energy statistics are functions of distances between statistical observations in metric spaces. Thus even if the observations are complex objects, like functions, one can use their real valued nonnegative distances for inference. Theory and application of energy statistics are discussed and illustrated. Finally, we explore the notion of potential and kinetic energy of goodness-of-fit.     

技术进步对中国能源利用效率影响机制研究

由于"回弹效应"的存在,对技术进步是否必然提高能源利用效率存在争议。本文在DEA-Tobit两阶段分析框架下研究技术进步对地区能源利用效率的影响。以中国29个省级行政单位为研究对象,采用DEA-Malmquist生产率法将技术进步分解为前沿型技术进步与追随型技术进步两类,通过构建面板数据的Tobit回归模型对技术进步在能源利用效率提升过程中的影响机制进行较为细致的研究,发现追随型技术进步对中国各地区能源利用效率施加了显著正向影响,而前沿型技术进步作用并不明显;影响中国地区能源利用效率的诸因素,其正向作用力度呈现出由东向西逐渐递减的态势。     

转型时期的社会分化及其对社会稳定的影响

论述了我国社会转型时期,社会分化对原有的整合方式所构成的挑战。指出由于社会结构的快速分化,使得在社会分化和整合之间出现了断裂,这种断裂必将对社会稳定产生不可忽视的影响。因此,在当前社会转型的新形势下,为适应社会的急速分化,维护社会的稳定,我们必须建立一种新的社会整合方式,即培育中介组织,增强政府权威;建立健全法制,理顺利益关系;加强文化整合,重构价值体系等。