1917年京直水灾与赈济情况略述

1917年,京直地区出现了数十年未遇的大水灾,一百多个县被淹,几百万人口受灾,灾情十分严重。水灾发生后,北洋政府和社会各界予以高度重视,施行了一系列赈灾措施,使灾民的困苦得到一定程度的缓解。但是,在赈灾过程中也存在着不少的弊端,使赈灾效果大打折扣,这是由当时的社会政治环境所造成的。     

北方高寒地区塑膜暖棚育肥蒙古羊试验

对25岁淘汰蒙古羊进行了50天的冬季暖棚育肥试验,取得了显著的育肥效果。通过舍饲,试验组羊只期末体重4557kg,期增重686kg,平均日增重0137kg,分别比对照组的3973kg、127kg、0069kg多584kg(P<001).559kg(P<001).0068kg(P<001).试验组羊只胴体重、净肉重、净肉率、屠宰率均极显著或显著高于对照组。经核算试验组每只比对照组多收入2668元。     

欠发达地区政府行为公共性弱化探析

公共性是政府的根本属性,它决定了政府必须将公共利益作为政府行为的首要原则,确保公共利益得到切实维护和实现。然而,由于各种主客观原因,目前欠发达地区政府行为表现出了利益化、法外化、低效化的不良特征,导致政府行为公共性弱化。本文讨论了欠发达地区政府行为公共性弱化的现实原因,并提出了规避欠发达地区政府行为公共性弱化的路径选择。     

城市化:西北地区各民族共同发展的一个视角

中国西北地区加速经济社会发展,实现全面建设小康社会目标,需要解决一个重要问题即城市化问题。本文以城市化为研究视角,从五个方面分析了城市化对西北各民族共同繁荣发展的促进作用。并由此认为城市是带动一个地区经济社会发展的核心,城市化是西北各民族逐步实现现代化的必由之路。     

Social perception of natural risks by local residents in developing countries—The example of the coastal area of Benin

Risk management and planning activities cannot be sustainably and efficiently implemented unless being based on a participative approach resulting from the problem consciousness and perception of the local inhabitants. This requires that the measures linked to problem perception and assessment by local stakeholders, above all by the population affected, are known. This investigation conducted in the flat Beninese coastal lagoon areas aims to assess the local inhabitants’ risk perception. The results are the following: (i) the stakeholders have group-specific ways of risk perception (according to ethnicity, social group, age); (ii) every risk management strategy should be based on the group-specific ways of risk perception and assessment; (iii) the acceptance of a given risk management strategy including interactive ways of participation can be advanced through education, dissemination of risk information as well as through communication between stakeholders.     

甘肃省县域经济发展水平空间差异分析

甘肃省包括86个县区,受地理位置、气候条件、资源状况、经济基础各种因素的影响,各县区之间的经济发展水平差异显著但又有很多相似之处。为了定量揭示甘肃省县域经济发展水平在空间上的分布现状、差异以及相似性,笔者拟运用多元统计方法对甘肃省县域经济发展水平的空间差异分析     

综合业务CATV网络

本文提出了一种宽带分布式网络设计,该网络能在CATV电缆上同时进行数据、实时数字话音及模拟电视通信。本系统能支持大量用户间的通信。由于采用了宽带技术和总线网令牌与CSMA/CD的混合协议,从而解决了局域网所面临的距离和时延问题。本文最后对所提出网络的话音性能作了评估,所得结果与相关试验报导数据相符。     

Akaike Information Criterion for Selecting Variables in the Nested Error Regression Model

The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) is developed for selecting the variables of the nested error regression model where an unobservable random effect is present. Using the idea of decomposing the likelihood into two parts of “within” and “between” analysis of variance, we derive the AIC when the number of groups is large and the ratio of the variances of the random effects and the random errors is an unknown parameter. The proposed AIC is compared, using simulation, with Mallows' C _p , Akaike's AIC, and Sugiura's exact AIC. Based on the rates of selecting the true model, it is shown that the proposed AIC performs better.     

Asymptotic Properties and Variance Estimators of the M-quantile Regression Coefficients Estimators

M-quantile regression is defined as a “quantile-like” generalization of robust regression based on influence functions. This article outlines asymptotic properties for the M-quantile regression coefficients estimators in the case of i.i.d. data with stochastic regressors, paying attention to adjustments due to the first-step scale estimation. A variance estimator of the M-quantile regression coefficients based on the sandwich approach is proposed. Empirical results show that this estimator appears to perform well under different simulated scenarios. The sandwich estimator is applied in the small area estimation context for the estimation of the mean squared error of an estimator for the small area means. The results obtained improve previous findings, especially in the case of heteroskedastic data.     

A probabilistic model for predicting total basal area growth of closed uneven-aged stand

In this note, a probabilistic method for predicting the future total net basal area of closed uneven-aged stand based on “Stand Tally” is proposed and an example is given.