Scenario Tree Modeling to Analyze the Probability of Classical Swine Fever Virus Introduction into Member States of the European Union

The introduction of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) into a country free of disease without vaccination may have huge consequences in terms of both disease spread and economic losses. More quantitative insight into the main factors determining the probability of CSFV introduction (PCSFV) is needed to optimally use resources for the prevention of CSFV introduction. For this purpose a spreadsheet model was constructed that calculates the annual PCSFV into member states of the European Union (EU). The scenario pathway approach was used as most probabilities in the model are very small. Probability distributions were used to take into account inherent variability of input parameters. The model contained pathways of CSFV introduction including the import of pigs and pork products, returning livestock trucks, and contacts with wild boar. All EU member states were included as possible sources of CSFV. Default results for the Netherlands showed a mean overall annual PCSFV of approximately 0.06, indicating that the Netherlands can expect CSFV introduction on average once every 18 years from the pathways and countries included in the model. Almost 65% of this probability could be attributed to the pathway of returning livestock trucks. The most likely sources of CSFV introduction were Germany, Belgium, and the United Kingdom. Although the calculated probabilities were rather low when compared with expert estimates and recent history, the most likely causes of CSFV introduction indicated by the model were considered to be realistic. It was therefore concluded that the model is a useful tool to structure and analyze information for decision making concerning the prevention of CSFV introduction.     

Remaining childless in affluent economies: a comparison of France, West Germany, Italy and Spain, 1994–2001 Rester sans enfant dans des sociétés d'abondances: une comparaison de la France, l'Allemagne de l'Ouest et l'Espagne, 19994–2001

This article explores why women delay childbearing and increase their likelihood to remain childless in Spain, Italy, West Germany and France. We take a macro–micro perspective and show that national institutions influence women’s life transitions, in particular partnership and motherhood. For coupled women, we find two alternative modes out of childlessness. In countries with high direct and indirect child costs, like Spain and Italy, entering a male-breadwinner couple or occupying a stable and high-income position facilitates motherhood, while in the French context motherhood is most likely in a dual-earner partnership.      

Kinship care for children in the UK: messages from research,lessons for policy and practice1

This article presents a comprehensive overview of kinship care, or as it is also known, family and friends care, paying particular attention to the UK child welfare, legal, policy/practice contexts. The aim of the article is to raise awareness, and provide information, about a hitherto largely invisible, yet expanding placement option being widely used in child welfare systems in the UK, in Europe and elsewhere. The article places kinship care within a UK and European child welfare legal context, including the European Convention on Human Rights 1998 [Articles 8 and 14] and European kinship care developments are also highlighted. It contains the main findings of a kinship care research study conducted by the author, based on interviews with children and young people living with kinship carers, as well as with the kinship carers. Following an examination of theoretical and policy issues, the article examines ways forward for developing and supporting kinship care. In the final section, and based on the research findings and literature review, a new paradigm for child welfare is introduced. It is argued that this new paradigm is necessary in order for kinship care practice and policy to develop within a supported and sustainable family support framework.     

Marital disruption and economic well-being: a comparative analysis

Summary.  Though there is a considerable literature concerned with the economic consequences of marital breakdown, there is still substantial disagreement in terms of its magnitude. One of the major problems underlying this debate is how economic well-being is defined. We implement several measures of well-being of monetary and multidimensional nature by using data from the European Community Household Panel. Another issue in this literature concerns selection bias of divorcing couples. We tackle this issue by using a propensity score matching technique combined with a difference-in-differences estimator. Results confirm the importance of the definition of well-being. We find a strong gender bias when using monetary measures but a considerably lower bias, and for some countries non-existent, when using non-monetary indices.     

浅析俄罗斯与中东欧国家的关系

论述了冷战时期,苏联与中东欧建立的既是一种战略联盟关系,也是一种极不对等的国家关系;苏东剧变后,俄罗斯与中东欧国家都处于政治经济的转型期,双方关系受历史阴影的影响较明显;提出如今面对北约和欧盟东扩的新的历史条件,如何摆脱不利因素的影响,建立正常的新型国家关系是摆在他们面前的共同问题。     

欧美企业克服传统预算管理缺陷的最新实践

由于传统预算管理存在缺乏灵活性、缺乏效率等缺陷,欧美企业采取了一系列的改进措施,如广泛运用信息一体化技术、注重预算与战略的结合、运用一体化的预测模型等方法和手段提高预算的灵活性和效率,取得了良好的效果.     

Normal Deviation and Poisson Approximation of a Security Market by the Geometric Markov Renewal Processes

We consider the geometric Markov renewal processes (GMRP) as a model for a security market. Normal deviations of the geometric Markov renewal processes for ergodic averaging and double averaging schemes are derived. We introduce Poisson averaging scheme for the geometric Markov renewal processes. European call option pricing formulas for GMRP are presented.     

Multiple partitioning of multiplex signed networks: Application to European parliament votes

For more than a decade, graphs have been used to model the voting behavior taking place in parliaments. However, the methods described in the literature suffer from several limitations. The two main ones are that 1) they rely on some temporal integration of the raw data, which causes some information loss; and/or 2) they identify groups of antagonistic voters, but not the context associated with their occurrence. In this article, we propose a novel method taking advantage of multiplex signed graphs to solve both these issues. It consists in first partitioning separately each layer, before grouping these partitions by similarity. We show the interest of our approach by applying it to a European Parliament dataset.     

Andrii Liubka’s Carbide: Ukrainian democratic reforms through a dark glass

ABSTRACT

The Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine and its reforms are the topics of Andrii Liubka’s novel Karbid (Carbide, 2015). Employing Voltairean laughter and neo-Gothic aesthetics, Liubka presents the idea of European integration (one of the expected outcomes of the reforms) implemented practically by the corrupt elites of the imagined Transcarpathian town of Vedmediv as a money-laundering enterprise – an underground tunnel for smuggling drugs and people’s organs from Ukraine to Europe. The author proposes that the elites – most of whom are criminals – personify Julia Kristeva’s concept of abjection in the novel and represent social spheres that need reform. Contrary to the Euromaidan goals, these comprador elites desire even stronger borders between Ukraine and the European Union, as these facilitate their shadow economy, and they subject the local population to economic and social decline, turning them into disposable human waste. By applying the concept of abjection in its psychoanalytic and social forms to Liubka’s tragicomic novel, the author argues that his text points to Ukraine’s struggle to define itself as “West” and shed its totalitarian legacy of the Soviet “East,” and brings attention to the conflict between the post-Euromaidan national strivings of Ukraine’s citizens and the rampant corruption that negates their efforts.     

Causal dynamics of poverty reproduction in EU countries

This study investigated causal mechanisms of poverty reproduction in EU countries by placing emphasis on the parental background effect on sons’ poverty risk after having controlled for endogeneity among observable and non‐observable effects of the involved mechanisms. The countries under investigation were old EU member states representing the four welfare regimes in the EU. Having employed path models and utilised EU‐SILC 2005 data, the analysis yielded no statistically significant direct effect of parental background on sons’ poverty risk in Denmark. Greece, however, exhibited a statistically significant and quite strong direct effect. Germany and the United Kingdom stood in‐between. Moreover, the analysis found indirect channels through which the parental background affects sons’ poverty risk. These findings are expected to enrich the academic discourse and inform the policy‐making process on poverty reproduction and social protection in the EU.