A bivariate distribution with Lomax and geometric margins

We develop a stochastic model describing the joint distribution of $(X,N)$, where $N$ has a geometric distribution while $X$ is the sum of $N$ dependent, heavy-tail Pareto components. Models of this form arise in many applications, ranging from hydro-climatology to finance and insurance. We present fundamental properties of this vector, including marginal and conditional distributions, moments, representations, and parameter estimation. We also include an example from finance, illustrating modeling potential of this new bivariate distribution.     

Mildly explosive autoregression with mixing innovations

In this paper, the limit distribution of the least squares estimator for mildly explosive autoregressive models with strong mixing innovations is established, which is shown to be Cauchy as in the iid case. The result is applied to identify the onset and the end of an explosive period of an econometric time series. Simulations and data analysis are also conducted to demonstrate the usefulness of the result.     

The trinity of wage setting in EMU: A policy proposal

Diverging labor cost developments are often considered to be one of the most important factors that led to large current account imbalances in the euro area (EA) in the run-up to the global financial crisis. It has also been shown that wage growth differentials have significantly lowered the co-movement of EA countries’ business cycles – the most widely used meta-criterion for optimum currency areas. Against this background, this paper develops a wage-setting benchmark that aims to keep the economy in internal equilibrium and to maintain price stability, while it also exhibits the capacity to correct for external imbalances. The proposed wage benchmark is very simple and may serve as an anchor for the macroeconomic dialogue in Economic and Monetary Union. In order to demonstrate the potentially beneficial effects of such a wage benchmark we present some simulations showing how current account balances and labor costs would have developed across EA countries if the rule had served as a benchmark already in the run up to the crisis.     

Firm internationalization and performance: Evidence for designing policies

The debate on the relationship between internationalization and performance is still open and is a hot topic for policymakers, but they ignore the impacts for most of the firms supported. The paper is based on a large database of seven years that considers quantitative-qualitative and control variables. To reduce industry and country heterogeneity we focused on the Italian automotive supply chain. We tested 5 modes of internationalization on firms’ profitability so to support the design of policies. Our results are partially in contrast with literature; therefore we identify specific environments where policies, namely for exporting, could be more effective.     

Nonparametric modelling of biodiversity: Determinants of threatened species

This study uses a sample of 71 countries and nonparametric quantile and partial regressions to model a number of threatened species (reptiles, mammals, fish, birds, trees, plants) in relation to various economic and environmental variables (GDPc, CO₂ emissions, agricultural production, energy intensity, protected areas, population and income inequality). From the analysis and due to high asymmetric distribution of the dependent variables it seems that a linear regression is not adequate and cannot capture properly the dimension of the threatened species. We find that using OLS instead of non-parametric techniques over- or under-estimates the parameters which may have serious policy implications.     

The role of macroeconomic policies in the global crisis

This paper argues that the lack of timely and decisive policy action to correct domestic and external imbalances contributed crucially to the build-up of financial excesses that led to the financial crisis and the Great Recession. We focus on 2002–2007 and perform a number of counterfactual simulations to investigate two central elements of the story, namely: (a) an over-expansionary US monetary policy and the absence of effective macro-prudential supervision, which permitted a prolonged expansion of debt-financed consumer spending and (b) the choice by China and other emerging countries to pursue an export-led growth strategy supported by pegging their currencies to the US dollar, in conjunction with sluggish domestic demand in major advanced economies characterized by low potential output growth. The results of the simulations lend support to the view that if substantial, globally coordinated demand rebalancing had been undertaken early on, the macroeconomic and financial imbalances would not have accumulated to the extent that they did and the financial turmoil might have had less drastic global consequences.     

Approximate jackknife empirical likelihood method for estimating equations

It is known that the profile empirical likelihood method based on estimating equations is computationally intensive when the number of nuisance parameters is large. Recently, Li, Peng, & Qi (2011) proposed a jackknife empirical likelihood method for constructing confidence regions for the parameters of interest by estimating the nuisance parameters separately. However, when the estimators for the nuisance parameters have no explicit formula, the computation of the jackknife empirical likelihood method is still intensive. In this paper, an approximate jackknife empirical likelihood method is proposed to reduce the computation in the jackknife empirical likelihood method when the nuisance parameters cannot be estimated explicitly. A simulation study confirms the advantage of the new method. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 110–123; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Restricted maximum likelihood estimation of joint mean‐covariance models

The class of joint mean‐covariance models uses the modified Cholesky decomposition of the within subject covariance matrix in order to arrive to an unconstrained, statistically meaningful reparameterisation. The new parameterisation of the covariance matrix has two sets of parameters that separately describe the variances and correlations. Thus, with the mean or regression parameters, these models have three sets of distinct parameters. In order to alleviate the problem of inefficient estimation and downward bias in the variance estimates, inherent in the maximum likelihood estimation procedure, the usual REML estimation procedure adjusts for the degrees of freedom lost due to the estimation of the mean parameters. Because of the parameterisation of the joint mean covariance models, it is possible to adapt the usual REML procedure in order to estimate the variance (correlation) parameters by taking into account the degrees of freedom lost by the estimation of both the mean and correlation (variance) parameters. To this end, here we propose adjustments to the estimation procedures based on the modified and adjusted profile likelihoods. The methods are illustrated by an application to a real data set and simulation studies. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 225–242; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

废除“嫖宿幼女罪”的研究综述

2008年至2012年在十一届全国人大和全国政协两会期间,多名代表先后提出废除嫖宿幼女罪的议案及提案,引起了社会的强烈反响,之后,该问题遂成为公众议论与关注的焦点,学术界也对之展开了热烈的探讨。为了推进对这一问题的深入研究,很有必要回顾嫖宿幼女罪出台的法律依据和历史背景,考察和分析嫖宿幼女罪的文献和课题研究及网上争论,以及嫖宿幼女罪在法律上存在的弊端,以促进法律体系的不断完善,保证女性在法律上的权利,更好地保护幼女的身心健康,全面促进社会和谐发展。     

Return and volatility interaction between oil prices and stock markets in Saudi Arabia

The paper aims at investigating the links between world oil price and stock sector markets in Saudi Arabia over the weekly period from January 10, 2007 until September 28, 2011. To that effect, we make use of the VAR-GARCH process developed by Ling and McAleer (2003), which has the advantage to address the issue of return and volatility spillovers among the series we consider. Globally, the empirical findings show evidence of return and volatility transmission between oil price and stock sectors. However, the spillover effects are unidirectional from oil to some sectors for returns, but bidirectional for volatility patterns with more apparent links from sectors to oil. The optimal weights and hedge ratios for oil/stock portfolio holdings are sensitive to the sectors considered, and allow a better understanding of the links between sectors and oil for investors who seek for investment opportunities and want to diversify their portfolios. The findings are of great interest and have important implications for investors, market participants and policy makers.