OIL AND THE MACROECONOMY: A QUANTITATIVE STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS

We model an open economy where macroeconomic variables fluctuate in response to oil supply shocks, as well as aggregate demand and supply shocks generated domestically and abroad. We use several robust predictions of the model to identify five fundamental shocks underlying the fluctuations of the (real) oil price, the US activity and the global business cycle. The estimates show that supply shocks generated in the global economy explain the largest fraction of the oil price fluctuations, about four times more than canonical oil supply shocks. The correlation between oil prices and the US activity varies with the type of shock.     

Gender wage discrimination at quantiles

The literature provides several scalar measures of gender wage discrimination that cannot identify whether discrimination is greater among high earners or among low earners. Furthermore, two populations may exhibit the same value of the scalar measure while discrimination could be very differently distributed. We extend Oaxacas scalar measure to any quantile of the distribution of wages. Our measure allows comparisons within a population and inter-population. Using the Spanish Survey of Wage Structure we find that gender wage discrimination increases with the quantile index but as a fraction of the gender wage gap reaches a maximum at the ninth percentile.All Correspondence to Javier Gardeazabal. We would like to thank Alberto Abadie and Teo Pérez Amaral for their comments. Financial support from the Basque Government, the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología and Ministerio de Trabajo y Asuntos Sociales (Instituto de la Mujer) is gratefully acknowledged. Javier Gardeazabal would like to thank the Department of Economics of the University of California, Santa Cruz, for its hospitality while part of this work was carried out, and the Spanish Ministerio de Educación y Cultura for financing the visit to UCSC. Responsible editor: Daniel Hamermesh.     

BOOK TRANSLATIONS AS IDEA FLOWS: THE EFFECTS OF THE COLLAPSE OF COMMUNISM ON THE DIFFUSION OF KNOWLEDGE

We use book translations as a new measure of international idea flows and study the effects of Communism's collapse in Eastern Europe on these flows. Using novel data on 800,000 translations and difference‐in‐differences approaches, we show that while translations between Communist languages decreased by two thirds with the collapse, Western‐to‐Communist translations increased by a factor of 4 and quickly converged to Western levels. Convergence was more pronounced in the fields of applied and social sciences, and was more complete in Satellite and Baltic than in Soviet countries. We discuss how these patterns help us understand how repressive institutions and preferences towards Western European ideas shaped the international diffusion of knowledge.     

PREFERENCES FOR REDISTRIBUTION AND PERCEPTION OF FAIRNESS: AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY

We conduct a laboratory experiment to study how demand for redistribution of income depends on self‐interest, insurance motives, and social concerns relating to inequality and efficiency. Our choice environments feature large groups of subjects and real‐world framing, and differ with respect to the source of inequality (earned or arbitrary), the cost of taxation to the decision maker, the dead‐weight loss of taxation, uncertainty about own pretax income, and whether the decision maker is affected by redistribution. We estimate utility weights for the different sources of demand for redistribution, with the potential to inform modeling in macroeconomics and political economy     

TRADE QUOTAS AND BUYER POWER,WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE E.U. NATURAL GAS MARKET

We consider a market in which domestic buyers negotiate contracts with foreign sellers, and explore how trade quotas can help to increase the buyers' countervailing power. We use the Shapley value to describe bargaining power and the distribution of the trade surplus in such a bilateral oligopoly. By exploiting strategic externalities among the buyers, bilateral trade quotas can improve the buyers' bargaining positions. In contrast, aggregate trade restrictions on all buyers' trade never improve buyer surplus. Minimum quotas on imports from fringe suppliers can benefit nonaffected buyers, as these enjoy positive externalities. We apply these insights to the E.U. market for natural gas and show that the effects of trade quotas on E.U. gas importers' power can be significant.     

Gender bias in performance evaluations: The impact of gender quotas

The intention behind imposing quotas for women on corporate boards is to close the gender gap in economic participation and help women to be promoted within organizations. However, the broader social psychological literature lends support to ideas that affirmative action policies, such as quotas, may do more harm than good for the beneficiaries. We extend this idea beyond the affected beneficiaries and ask whether this unintended negative effect spills over to women who are not immediate targets of the quota, by signaling incompetence. We develop an experimental design to investigate whether the announcement (study 1) and the implementation (study 2) of a quota for women have a direct negative effect on performance evaluations and hence reinforce the existing gender bias in evaluation. We observed that the performance of women was evaluated significantly lower than that of men. However, this gender bias was limited to sequential (rating) evaluations and was not evident in joint (ranking) evaluations. The quota did not significantly influence the amount of this bias. In addition, we observed more pronounced sexism in males compared to females. Results of study 2 gave a hint to an association between higher sexism and lower evaluations of women’s performance. We also found some evidence for a stronger evaluation bias in females when controlling for sexist attitudes. Hence, our results imply that the bias, which is overall quite robust and strongly pronounced, is still affected by individual gender-related characteristics.     

基于DSP和LabVIEW的多通道数据采集系统的设计

系统使用飞思卡尔的DSP56F807代替了数据采集卡,使用CodeWarrior软件的PE软件包开发DSP,通过串口通讯将其与NI公司的LabVIEW软件相结合,使用LabVIEW软件处理数据,从而实现了被测系统多通道数据的采集。实验证明,此系统工作迅速可靠。     

法国汉学界对中西文化首次撞击的研究(下)

明末清初的16-18世纪,是中西两种文化首次撞击的时代。这次中西文化的撞击与交流媒介,是以入华耶稣会士为主体的西方天主教传教士。他们无论是在中学西渐方面,还是在西学东渐领域中,都做了许多有益的、他人无法取代的工作。入华耶稣会士与中西文化交流,是近年来国际学术界的热门课题,法国汉学界在该领域中始终居领先地位。本文对法国汉学界近二十年来的研究成果作了鸟瞰式评介。     

Ordered ranked set samples and applications to inference

Ranked set sampling (RSS) was first proposed by McIntyre [1952. A method for unbiased selective sampling, using ranked sets. Australian J. Agricultural Res. 3, 385–390] as an effective way to estimate the unknown population mean. Chuiv and Sinha [1998. On some aspects of ranked set sampling in parametric estimation. In: Balakrishnan, N., Rao, C.R. (Eds.), Handbook of Statistics, vol. 17. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 337–377] and Chen et al. [2004. Ranked Set Sampling—Theory and Application. Lecture Notes in Statistics, vol. 176. Springer, New York] have provided excellent surveys of RSS and various inferential results based on RSS. In this paper, we use the idea of order statistics from independent and non-identically distributed (INID) random variables to propose ordered ranked set sampling (ORSS) and then develop optimal linear inference based on ORSS. We determine the best linear unbiased estimators based on ORSS (BLUE-ORSS) and show that they are more efficient than BLUE-RSS for the two-parameter exponential, normal and logistic distributions. Although this is not the case for the one-parameter exponential distribution, the relative efficiency of the BLUE-ORSS (to BLUE-RSS) is very close to 1. Furthermore, we compare both BLUE-ORSS and BLUE-RSS with the BLUE based on order statistics from a simple random sample (BLUE-OS). We show that BLUE-ORSS is uniformly better than BLUE-OS, while BLUE-RSS is not as efficient as BLUE-OS for small sample sizes (n<5$n<5$).     

Bayesian design in queues: An application to aeronautic maintenance

We exploit Bayesian criteria for designing M/M/c//r$M/M/c//r$ queueing systems with spares. For illustration of our approach we use a real problem from aeronautic maintenance, where the numbers of repair crews and spare planes must be sufficiently large to meet the necessary operational capacity. Bayesian guarantees for this to happen can be given using predictive or posterior distributions.