Reconsideration of the F-test of the analysis of variance: the semi-bayesian significance test

The usual F-test of the analysis of variance is reconsidered within the Bayesian framework, In terms of predictive distributions, This leads to the notion of semi-Bayesian significance test, so called because it consists in only probabilizing the space of nuisance parameters, thus bringing a general principle for “eliminating” nuisance parameters, or more exactly incorporating information about these parameters. The approach is shown to extend the F-tests, by allowing the testing of hypotheses of non-zero effects.     

Estimating conditional tail expectation with actuarial applications in view

We develop statistical inferential tools for estimating and comparing conditional tail expectation (CTE) functions, which are of considerable interest in actuarial science. In particular, we construct estimators for the CTE functions, develop the necessary asymptotic theory for the estimators, and then use the theory for constructing confidence intervals and bands for the functions. Both parametric and non-parametric approaches are explored. Simulation studies illustrate the performance of estimators in various situations. Results are obtained under minimal assumptions, and the general Vervaat process plays a crucial role in achieving these goals.     

钼酸钙晶体中点缺陷的电子结构研究

运用以密度泛函理论为基础的相对论性离散变分方法(DV-Xα),模拟计算了完整的和含氧空位的钼酸钙(CaMoO_4)晶体的电子结构,得到了含有F、F~ 心的CaMoO_4晶体电子态密度分布以及它们可能产生的光学跃迁模式.计算结果表明,含F、F~ 心的CaMoO_4晶体的禁带宽度明显变窄,F、F~ 心的能级出现在禁带中,利用过渡态理论计算得到其向Mo的4 d轨道发生光学跃迁,跃迁能量值分别为1.93,2.03 eV.利用提拉法生长的CaMoO_4晶体呈现蓝色的本质原因是F、F~ 心在黄红区产生比较强的吸收.     

On Tiku's robust procedure — a Bayesian insight

Tiku's robust procedure for testing mean and variance from nonnormal universe is examined from the Bayesian viewpoint. The posterior distribution of the scale parameter is derived and then approximated by a Laguerre polynomial expansion while the posterior distribution of the location parameter is approximated by a linear combination of t-distributions. For the example with Darwin's data, the approximations appear to be extremely good.     

THE EURO AND THE GEOGRAPHY OF INTERNATIONAL DEBT FLOWS

Greater financial integration between core and peripheral European Monetary Union (EMU) members not only had an effect on both sets of countries but also spilled over beyond the euro area. Lower interest rates allowed peripheral countries to run bigger deficits, which inflated their economies by allowing credit booms. Core EMU countries took on extra foreign leverage to expose themselves to the peripherals. We present a stylized model that illustrates possible mechanisms for these developments. We then analyze the geography of international debt flows using multiple data sources and provide evidence that after the euro's introduction, core EMU countries increased their borrowing from outside of the EMU and their lending to the EMU periphery. Moreover, we present evidence that large core EMU banks' lending to periphery borrowers was linked to their borrowing from outside of the euro area.     

REPATRIATION OF DEBT IN THE EURO CRISIS

With the beginning of the Euro Crisis, the long‐standing trend of European financial integration reversed. Investors unwound cross‐border positions of debt obligations and increased holdings of locally issued debt. In other words, debt obligations were repatriated. We use data on bank portfolios to document three new empirical regularities of the financial disintegration: (i) repatriation affected mainly debt of crisis countries; (ii) repatriation affected mainly public debt; (iii) the public debt of crisis countries that was not repatriated was reallocated to large and politically influential countries within the Euro area. We read these results in light of standard theories of cross‐border portfolio allocation and argue that the sum of these patterns constitutes evidence for the secondary market theory of public debt.     

DISTRIBUTIONAL INCENTIVES IN AN EQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF DOMESTIC SOVEREIGN DEFAULT

Europe's debt crisis resembles historical episodes of outright default on domestic public debt about which little research exists. This paper proposes a theory of domestic sovereign default based on distributional incentives affecting the welfare of risk‐averse debt and nondebtholders. A utilitarian government cannot sustain debt if default is costless. If default is costly, debt with default risk is sustainable, and debt falls as the concentration of debt ownership rises. A government favoring bond holders can also sustain debt, with debt rising as ownership becomes more concentrated. These results are robust to adding foreign investors, redistributive taxes, or a second asset.     

弗·施勒格尔的反讽方法论

弗·施勒格尔对浪漫主义有重要影响,反讽是他的重要概念之一。修辞学上的反讽与浪漫反讽是截然不同的,浪漫反讽具有重要的哲学方法论地位,它虽与形式逻辑相对,但却不是完全的非理性。对弗·施勒格尔来说,反讽是解决二元对立,达致统一哲学的唯一路径。     

自动窗帘远程控制系统

针对目前自动窗帘需要通过按钮或遥控器且只能实现近程控制的现状,提出了一种以STM32F103芯片为核心, 结合Wi-Fi通信技术和互联网技术,能够简单有效地对自动窗帘进行远程控制的解决方案。方案采用模块化的设计思 路,重点分析了系统无线通信模块、继电器模块、按键模块、电源保护和电平转换模块的设计过程,介绍了系统的基本工 作原理和操作方法,设计了基于TCP通信协议的服务端和客户端软件以通过互联网或者个人移动设备实现窗帘的远程 控制。实际结果表明,该方案可以应用于家居或办公环境,具有稳定性高、操作简单等特点。