Earthquake Risk Perception in Bucharest, Romania

The Municipality of Bucharest is one of the capitals with the highest seismic risk in the world. Bucharest is particularly vulnerable to seismic hazard due to: the high density of inhabitants, especially within the residential districts with blocks of flats; the old public utility fund; the out-of-date infrastructure; the numerous industrial parks that are undergoing a restructuring process, not to mention the inefficient organization of civil protection and poor education of the population regarding seismic risk. This research was designed to examine the attitudes and perceptions of people living with the risk of an earthquake hazard in Bucharest. We were interested in how attitudes and perceptions differ depending on gender, age, education, residential area and socioeconomic status, characteristics of seismic hazard, degree of risk exposure, degree of danger, and casualty awareness. At the same time, we compare the results of this study with those from a previous and similar enquiry in 1997. The statistical processing has indicated a significant difference between the declared perception of seismic risk and the independent variables of gender, age, level of education, level of attachment to the residential area, and degree to which the subjects consider they may be affected and could retrieve their losses. Due to the continuous decrease of their living standard, the most vulnerable is the aged population. The feelings toward the residential area is another factor of statistical significance for the population's seismic danger perception. A strong affective bond offers a feeling of safety and leads to the neglect and even total denial of the hazard. In the case of independent variables regarding the type of dwelling, its age, and property form, deviations of empiric values from the theoretical distribution are not relevant for the correlation searched for, which indicates that this issue goes beyond the above-mentioned criteria.     

“A stitch in time”: group work during the covid-19 scare in the Nicobar Islands,India

ABSTRACT

When India suddenly went into its first coronavirus-induced nationwide lockdown in March 2020, several members of a historically isolated indigenous community in the eastern Indian ocean- the Nicobarese, began to panic. Their leaders came together and formed a group to boost community solidarity and helped the vulnerable indigenes to safely navigate through the crisis. In these uncertain times of Covid-19, when the “modern” world appears more fissured than ever, leaving its “others” to fend for themselves; the Nicobarese’s group has set an example for everyone to follow.     

促进小额贷款公司健康发展的政策体系研究

小额贷款是金融制度的创新,是对现代金融体系的提升和扬弃。小额贷款公司等微型金融是国家金融系统的必要组成部分,是国家普惠金融体系的一个特殊机构。小额贷款公司的出现延伸了金融服务的广度和深度,在一定程度上缓冲了银行的信贷风险,也使得金融体系更具包容性,从而完善了金融支持经济的功能。小额信贷不仅能促进一国的经济增长,也会丰富金融体系和金融监管的内涵。应设计出更加符合发展需求的政策体系,使小贷公司有更好的发展愿景。     

Postdisaster Housing Stages: A Markov Chain Approach to Model Sequences and Duration Based on Social Vulnerability

Housing recovery is an unequal and complex process presumed to occur in four stages: emergency shelter, temporary shelter, temporary housing, and permanent housing. This work questions the four-stage typology and examines how different types of shelter align with multiple housing recovery stages given different levels of social vulnerability. This article also presents a Markov chain model of the postdisaster housing recovery process that focuses on the experience of the household. The model predicts the sequence and timing of a household going through housing recovery, capturing households that end in either permanent housing or a fifth possible stage of failure. The probability of a household transitioning through the stages is computed using a transition probability matrix (TPM). The TPM is assembled using proposed transition probability models that vary with the social vulnerability of the household. Monte Carlo techniques are applied to demonstrate the range of sequences and timing that households experience going through the housing recovery process. A set of computational rules are established for sending a household to the fifth stage, representing a household languishing in unstable housing. This predictive model is exemplified on a virtual community, Centerville, where following a severe earthquake scenario, differences in housing recovery times exceed four years. The Centerville analysis results in nearly 5% of households languishing in unstable housing, thereby failing to reach housing recovery. These findings highlight the disparate trajectories experienced by households with different levels of social vulnerability. Recommendations are provided at the end for more equitable postdisaster recovery policies.     

Feminist Christian Realism

While Christianity and feminism may seem at odds with one another, both make normative claims about justice and addressing the needs of those on the margins of power. This article explores what feminism contributes to Christian realism. The current revival of Niebuhrian Christian realism highlights how much it still has to offer as a theoretical underpinning for policy and governance. However, Christian realism remains wedded to masculinist abstractions and power structures, such as the balance of power, that are ultimately harmful to those on the margins. Thus, this article uses feminism to argue for a greater acceptance of vulnerability and obligation in Christian realism.     

Modelling financial satisfaction across life stages: A latent class approach

We explore the determinants of financial satisfaction using a modelling framework which allows the drivers of financial satisfaction to vary across life stages. Given that financial satisfaction is measured as an ordered variable, our modelling approach is based on a latent class ordered probit model with an ordered probit class assignment function. Our analysis of household survey data indicates that four life stages are supported by the data. Our results suggest that such flexibility is important in understanding the drivers of financial satisfaction over the life cycle since there is a substantial amount of parameter heterogeneity across the four classes.     

Resource Distribution in Multiple Attacks with Imperfect Detection of the Attack Outcome

This article extends the previous research of consecutive attacks strategy by assuming that an attacker observes the outcome of each attack imperfectly. With given probabilities it may wrongly identify a destroyed target as undestroyed, and wrongly identify an undestroyed target as destroyed. The outcome of each attack is determined by a contest success function that depends on the amount of resources allocated by the defender and the attacker to each attack. The article suggests a probabilistic model of the multiple attacks and analyzes how the target destruction probability and the attacker's relative resource expenditure are impacted by the two probabilities of incorrect observation, the attacker's and defender's resource ratio, the contest intensity, the number of attacks, and the resource distribution across attacks. We analyze how the attacker chooses the number of attacks, the attack stopping rule, and the optimal resource distribution across attacks to maximize its utility.     

Perception of Climate Risk among Rural Farmers in Vietnam: Consistency within Households and with the Empirical Record

Rural farmers in Vietnamese communes perceive climate risk and potential impacts on livelihood within a complex context that may influence individual and household decisions. In a primary survey of 1,145 residents of the Thach Ha district of Ha Tinh province, we gathered data regarding perception about stability in climate, potential risks to livelihood, demographic characteristics, orientation toward risk, and interest in expanding economic activity. Temporal analysis of meteorological and economic indicator data forms an empirical basis for comparison with human perception. We ask the basic question: Are rural farmers’ perceptions of climate consistent with the historical record and reproducible within households? We find that respondents do perceive climate anomalies, with some anchoring on recent extreme events as revealed by climate observational data, and further that spouses disproportionately share perceptions relative to randomly simulated pairings. To put climate‐related risk perception in a larger context, we examine patterns across a range of risks to livelihood faced by farmers (livestock disease, pests, markets, health), using dimension reduction techniques. We find that our respondents distinguish among potential causes of low economic productivity, with substantial emphasis on climate‐related impacts. They do not express uniform concern across risks, but rather average patterns reveal common modes and distinguish climate concern. Still, among those expressing concern about climate‐related risks to livelihood we do not find an association with expressed intention to pursue changes in economic activity as a risk management response.     

财务柔性能力与中国上市公司持续性创新——兼论协调创新效应与自适应效应

基于财务柔性组织理论,本文利用2007-2017年我国A股上市非金融类公司微观数据,从理论和实证检验分析了企业财务柔性能力对持续性创新的影响,结果显示企业财务柔性对持续性创新存在正向促进作用。进一步,本文探讨了财务柔性可能存在的“协调创新效应”和“自适应效应”两种机制。协调创新效应相关检验结果显示企业储备的财务柔性能力能有效协调内外部资源,释放融资约束的负向影响,从而正向促进企业持续性创新。检验结果还显示,企业主动地调节财务柔性储备,能够在不同维度环境的不确定性影响下发挥“自适应效应”,助力企业实现持续创新的目标。总体而言,本文结论改善了企业断点式或阶段式的创新投入方式,切实提升了企业自主研发能力和质量,对`实现我国创新“量质平衡”有重要意义。     

中国居民家庭脆弱性及因病致贫效应分析

为定量分析医疗支出对家庭经济水平的冲击,以贫困脆弱性指标作为家庭经济风险的代理变量,利用微观调查数据构造反事实框架估计就医行为对家庭经济境遇的冲击,验证了医疗与家庭致贫效应的因果关系和影响程度。家庭成员在过去半年内若因病住院,对家庭福利会造成损失,损失幅度因贫困标准、样本年份而不同。2012年在贫困线标准为2美元条件下,家庭经济风险概率值增加0.31。分城乡和收入高低不同组估计,农村居民以及低收入群体的福利水平受就医影响幅度大于对应的其他群体。