Penalty and financial assistance in a supply chain with supply disruption

In a supply chain, when the supply is hit by an unexpected disruption, the supplier may face certain financial difficulty to resume normal production, causing a supply shortage as well as a loss to the manufacturer and the entire supply chain. Combining a penalty term in writing contracts with the provision of financial assistance is the “carrot and stick” approach used by a manufacturer to deal with supply disruption. This article investigates how the manufacturer, in a better financial situation, may use ex-ante penalty terms and ex-post financial assistance to compel the supplier to recover its production capability as much as possible. We find that, the MS (integration of financial assistance and the non-delivery penalty) is the best strategy for the manufacturer in most situations, but it is not a win–win strategy. An interesting result contrary to the conventional wisdom, is that the optimal delivery quantity for the supply chain under the centralized decision-making is less than that under the decentralized decision-making.     

Assessing Risk in Graphically Presented Financial Series

It has been argued that traders use their natural sensitivity to the fractal properties of price graphs to assess risk and that they are better able to do this when given price change as well as price level information. This approach implies that risk assessments should be higher when the Hurst exponents are lower, that this relationship should be stronger in the presence of price change information and that risk assessment should depend more strongly on the Hurst exponent than on the standard deviation of the series. Participants in Experiment 1 decided which of two assets was riskier by inspecting graphs of their price series. Graphs with lower Hurst exponents were selected only by those who were less emotionally stable and hence more sensitive to risk. However, when both price series and price change series were presented, the assets with lower Hurst exponents were selected by all participants. In a second experiment, participants were given both price level and price change series for a number of assets and rated the risk of trading in each one. Ratings depended more strongly on Hurst exponents than on other measures of volatility. They also depended on indicators of potential loss. Human risk assessment deviates from the way that risk is measured in modern finance theory: it requires integration of information relevant to both uncertainty and loss aversion, thereby imposing high attentional demands on traders. These demands may impair risk assessment but they can be eased by adding displays of price change information.     

我国中小企业应对国际金融危机的新思考

发端于美国的次贷危机,愈演愈烈并形成一场席卷全球的金融危机。本文结合目前我国中小企业现状,从深层次分析了相对国有大中型企业,中小企业受金融危机影响严重的原因。目前国内专家在分析中小企业面临的困境时,往往把罪魁祸首归罪于中小企业融资难,其实并不仅如此。国家财政政策、中小企业自身竞争力也是使中小企业面临困境的重要因素。最后,本文借国家宏观财政政策加大对中下企业扶持的大背景,提出了中小企业走出困境的新举措。     

全球金融危机背景下我国财政政策的路径选择

受全球金融危机的影响，我国长期依赖外贸和投资的经济增长模式开始面临严峻挑战。外贸出口减少、市场供给过剩、消费能力不足、物价持续下跌等通货紧缩风险凸现。要克服经济增长放缓、就业困难等不利的局面，必须灵活机动地运用积极的财政政策，扩大内需、走自主经济增长新方式。     

完善民族地区教育财政转移支付制度的迫切性及对策思考

民族地区教育具有多重的正外部性.本文论述搞好民族地区教育财政转移支付制度的迫切性,并结合教育事业和民族地区的特点,尝试提出完善这一制度的对策思路.     

Nonparametric Methods in Continuous Time Model Specification

Some popular parametric diffusion processes have been assumed as such underlying diffusion processes. This paper considers an important case where both the drift and volatility functions of the underlying diffusion process are unknown functions of the underlying process, and then proposes using two novel testing procedures for the parametric specification of both the drift and diffusion functions. The finite-sample properties of the proposed tests are assessed through using data generated from four popular parametric models. In our implementation, we suggest using a simulated critical value for each case in addition to the use of an asymptotic critical value. Our detailed studies show that there is little size distortion when using a simulated critical value while the proposed tests have some size distortions when using an asymptotic critical value in each case.     

Why do Socioeconomic Differences in Women’s Living Standards Converge After Union Dissolution?

Union dissolution is a critical event for women’s living standards. Previous work has found that women in high-income unions lose more from union dissolution than women in low-income unions. This study proposes two mechanisms to explain this “convergence” in living standards. The compensation mechanism concerns the ability to compensate the loss of partner earnings with alternative sources of income, whereas the partner independence mechanism concerns how much women stand to lose from dissolution in the first place. To test these mechanisms, the author drew on a unique administrative dataset from the Netherlands, covering women who experienced dissolution within ten years after union formation (N = 57,960). A decomposition analysis showed that convergence was not driven by compensation: women from all income groups decreased their household size and re-partnered, women from low-income unions increased transfer income, and women from high-income unions increased personal earnings and decreased tax payments. Instead, convergence was driven by partner independence: women from lower-income unions depended relatively less on their partners because they relied more on transfer income prior to dissolution. These results demonstrate how partners’ interdependence moderates the consequences of life events. The welfare state plays a crucial role in this process.     

金融稳定与加速器效应的非对称性

本文在传统BGG模型的基础上,通过构建一个包含银行部门(不)稳定度的随机动态一般均衡模型(DSGE),从金融稳定的视角揭示加速器效应非对称性的微观机理及其对宏观经济的影响。结论表明:金融加速器的放大机制受到企业自身经营状况和银行机会成本的双重影响;金融不稳定因素通过预期违约损失的方式影响银行部门的机会成本,进而改变放大弹性,最终对加速器效应起到放大作用。因此,当金融部门不稳定时,金融加速器效应更为显著。     

SALARY RAISES BY PERCENTAGE INCREASES*

Starting with a mean salary distribution as a function of professional age at a given year, the salaries in subsequent years are determined by percentage raises. Effects of the percentage increases and the salaries at entry on subsequent salary distributions are examined, including an inflation correction. The salary history of an individual is considered. Simple modifications of the percentage system which correct for the anomalies observed are noted, as are questions for further study.     

论财务软件的数据安全与防护

阐述了在传统的财务管理模式下,财务软件的应用环节与开发环节的数据安全措施,以及在网络财务管理模式下财务软件的数据所面临的安全风险及其应对措施。