滇泰经贸关系的现状、问题与发展前景

滇泰经贸关系从纵向来看已经有了很大发展,但人横向来比,特别是与滇缅与滇越经贸关系,还不尽如人意。目前泰国尚未摆脱经济危机,影响了滇泰经贸关系的进一步发展。中国加入世界贸易组织以及东盟自由贸易区的即将建成为滇泰经贸关系取得新的突破带来了前所未有的机遇。     

基于部门利益视角的国民收入分配现象与思考

当前我国国民收入分配不公平的现象日益突出,这是财政的收入分配职能弱化的表现。究其原因可追寻到政府内部的"部门利益"问题。部门利益的固化与扩张,带来横向的部门财力割据,主宰了政府财政分配的权力;加剧了纵向上的财力上收,使地方财政困难,公共服务能力不足。改革决策与行政不分的行政体制和零碎化的财政分配方式,破解部门利益切割,就能有效实现财政的收入分配职能。     

城市经营误入歧途之机制浅析

城市经营是近几年来城市管理和学术研究中的热点问题,但众多学者和城市管理者在城市经营的现实基础、内涵本质、所遵循的基础理论和所面临的问题等方面并没有取得一致的意见。虽然城市经营表现出的形式多种多样,但其内涵和本质是以提高城市竞争力为目标;城市经营的理论基础可以从蒂伯特模型、政府再造运动和布雷顿竞争性政府的概念中去寻找;片面理解城市经营不但会造成土地等城市资源枯竭、加重企业和群众负担以及城市负债过度,而且极易诱发金融风险;要防止城市经营走入歧途,不仅需要彻底解决地方政府财权事权不对等的问题,完善城市管理的立法工作,还需要全面反思城市的土地经营思路,规范政府行为和市场秩序的重建。     

互联网金融纠纷解决与商事仲裁的运用

互联网金融作为新兴的金融创新模式,是传统金融服务体系的重要补充。基于互联网行业与金融行业相结合的特性,互联网金融面临着因技术安全与违约风险而引发的诸多复杂且多元化的纠纷。从解纷机制考量,商事仲裁的运用与互联网金融纠纷的特点相契合,具有纠纷解决专业化、效率化以及纠纷认可与执行广泛性的特点。对此,充分发挥商事仲裁的积极效用,无疑将促进我国互联网金融纠纷的顺利解决,从而维护互联网金融市场的稳定与发展。     

Nonparametric Methods in Continuous Time Model Specification

Some popular parametric diffusion processes have been assumed as such underlying diffusion processes. This paper considers an important case where both the drift and volatility functions of the underlying diffusion process are unknown functions of the underlying process, and then proposes using two novel testing procedures for the parametric specification of both the drift and diffusion functions. The finite-sample properties of the proposed tests are assessed through using data generated from four popular parametric models. In our implementation, we suggest using a simulated critical value for each case in addition to the use of an asymptotic critical value. Our detailed studies show that there is little size distortion when using a simulated critical value while the proposed tests have some size distortions when using an asymptotic critical value in each case.     

On Some Recent Definitions and Analysis Frameworks for Risk,Vulnerability, and Resilience

Recently, considerable attention has been paid to a systems‐based approach to risk, vulnerability, and resilience analysis. It is argued that risk, vulnerability, and resilience are inherently and fundamentally functions of the states of the system and its environment. Vulnerability is defined as the manifestation of the inherent states of the system that can be subjected to a natural hazard or be exploited to adversely affect that system, whereas resilience is defined as the ability of the system to withstand a major disruption within acceptable degradation parameters and to recover within an acceptable time, and composite costs, and risks. Risk, on the other hand, is probability based, defined by the probability and severity of adverse effects (i.e., the consequences). In this article, we look more closely into this approach. It is observed that the key concepts are inconsistent in the sense that the uncertainty (probability) dimension is included for the risk definition but not for vulnerability and resilience. In the article, we question the rationale for this inconsistency. The suggested approach is compared with an alternative framework that provides a logically defined structure for risk, vulnerability, and resilience, where all three concepts are incorporating the uncertainty (probability) dimension.     

HIV Prevention,Gender and Sexual Health

Abstract

Drawing on a review of relevant literature as well as global experience, this paper focuses on aspects of the growing feminisation of the HIV epidemic, especially the combination of age and gender which makes young women particularly vulnerable to HIV. It also briefly touches upon the gender-constructed vulnerability of young men. The linkages between gender, sexual health and HIV-and what works to forge these linkages-have now been well established. Not acting on the basis of this knowledge in order to avert millions of infections and deaths due to HIV, is no longer an option.     

On the Complex Quantification of Risk: Systems‐Based Perspective on Terrorism

This article highlights the complexity of the quantification of the multidimensional risk function, develops five systems‐based premises on quantifying the risk of terrorism to a threatened system, and advocates the quantification of vulnerability and resilience through the states of the system. The five premises are: (i) There exists interdependence between a specific threat to a system by terrorist networks and the states of the targeted system, as represented through the system's vulnerability, resilience, and criticality‐impact. (ii) A specific threat, its probability, its timing, the states of the targeted system, and the probability of consequences can be interdependent. (iii) The two questions in the risk assessment process: “What is the likelihood?” and “What are the consequences?” can be interdependent. (iv) Risk management policy options can reduce both the likelihood of a threat to a targeted system and the associated likelihood of consequences by changing the states (including both vulnerability and resilience) of the system. (v) The quantification of risk to a vulnerable system from a specific threat must be built on a systemic and repeatable modeling process, by recognizing that the states of the system constitute an essential step to construct quantitative metrics of the consequences based on intelligence gathering, expert evidence, and other qualitative information. The fact that the states of all systems are functions of time (among other variables) makes the time frame pivotal in each component of the process of risk assessment, management, and communication. Thus, risk to a system, caused by an initiating event (e.g., a threat) is a multidimensional function of the specific threat, its probability and time frame, the states of the system (representing vulnerability and resilience), and the probabilistic multidimensional consequences.     

国企改革实现三年走出困境的思考

深化国企改革,三年走出困境既是机遇又是挑战,这需要国家在税收、保险、金融、价格等财经政策方面予以倾斜和配套措施的扶持,而企业自身要以现代企业制度为要求,加强管理,提高自身市场竞争力,需要国家、企业、个人三方面共做出努力,共渡难关,实现三年走出困境。     

Splines for financial volatility

Summary.  We propose a flexible generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity type of model for the prediction of volatility in financial time series. The approach relies on the idea of using multivariate B -splines of lagged observations and volatilities. Estimation of such a B -spline basis expansion is constructed within the likelihood framework for non-Gaussian observations. As the dimension of the B -spline basis is large, i.e. many parameters, we use regularized and sparse model fitting with a boosting algorithm. Our method is computationally attractive and feasible for large dimensions. We demonstrate its strong predictive potential for financial volatility on simulated and real data, and also in comparison with other approaches, and we present some supporting asymptotic arguments.