财政政策DSGE模型中国化构建及其应用

事前模拟经济对财政政策变化的反应是检验政策效果的重要手段。本文通过国外经典模型中国化改进,并引入系统财政规则,构建财政政策DSGE模型。在有效税率估算校准与参数贝叶斯估计基础上,给出政策模拟检验应用示例。发现税率冲击效应模拟是税制改革实验的有效方法,资本税率可作为经济结构调整的政策工具,以及当前增加政府支出拉动增长作用微弱等结论。该研究也可为我国DSGE模型研究提供参考。     

Revisiting History: The Creation of Provinces and the Politics of Social Policy in a Democratic South Africa

The pre‐democracy negotiations between the African National Congress (ANC) and the National Party (NP) established nine provincial forms of government to replace the four provinces of the apartheid era. The nine provinces contrasted with the historical goal of the ANC to create a ‘democratic, non‐racial and unitary South Africa’. The NP wanted nine new provinces to prevent centralized state power under an ANC government and saw possibilities for winning electoral power in the Western Cape. The ANC conceded following political pressure from the Inkatha Freedom Party, which threatened civil war, and a policy shift after examining the German federal governance system. The article analyzes the history, politics, process and outcomes of the establishment of the nine provinces for social policy delivery in South Africa. It explores the contention that the nine provinces re‐fragmented service delivery (although not on a statutory racial basis) and created a system of fiscal decentralization with serious implications for social policy: weakening bureaucratic capacity, institutional capability and political accountability. The provincial governance mechanisms and fiscal institutions created a particular ‘path dependency’ which, 18 years after democratic, rule still impacts negatively on service delivery and more equitable policy outcomes. This is in part due to the undermining of provincial governance mechanisms and fiscal institutions by a significant minority of corrupt and incompetent provincial civil servants. The corruption of these provincial governance mechanisms and fiscal institutions erodes the egalitarian values aimed at creating a non‐racial, non‐sexist, democratic and unitary South Africa which historically underpinned the policy agenda of the ANC. It also has weakened social citizenship on a geographical and ultimately racial basis given the continuing co‐incidence of race and place in a democratic South Africa.     

约翰逊政府削减旅游逆差的尝试

旅游逆差是导致美国国际收支逆差的重要因素。为了改善美国国际收支状况,约翰逊政府对旅游政策进行了长期深入研究,推出了诸如降低美国公民出国旅游的关税豁免额、开展"浏览美国"等措施。这些措施在一定程度上抑制了美国旅游逆差的发展,但是并没有从根本上解决美国的旅游逆差问题。     

地方政府发行债券可行性的经济学探微——在全球金融危机的视角下

2008年的金融危机给世界也给中国经济造成了巨大影响。面对出口的下滑,国内需求原本不旺,在经济衰退的情况下更是愈加萎缩,而扩大内需的根本办法在于建立健全社会保障体系,但短期内不可能实现,因此,政府加大投资似乎成为挽救经济衰退的一剂良方。由于地方财政早已出现过万亿的赤字,何以出手投资救经济？在这种情况下,地方政府发行债券的呼声再起。地方政府发行债券是财政分权理论的实践,能产生良好的经济效益。在相关配套制度的辅佐下,地方政府发行债券将为金融危机的化解起到关键作用。     

中国改革周期中的公共政策变化(1949-2002年)——一个财政视角的考察

对中国五十多年改革周期中政策变化的研究有多种角度,从财政视角进行的研究很好地揭示了制度变迁中政府行为的规律。1949-1978年、1978-2001年是中国政府的财政压力波动周期,在整个过程中,公共政策的演变影响到契约的完全性,财政危机引发政府短期政策操作并产生累积效用,收入分化引致制度僵滞,集体行动中权威出现。     

财政分权理论的研究主题与方法

财政分权理论是当前公共财政领域研究的前沿课题。对多级财政体制下政府、政府行为和政策选择问题的研究构成了该理论的核心主题。该理论对地方性公共产品的研究是基于Samuelson-Musgrave公共产品理论对效率问题和公共选择分析范式的对政治程序问题的探讨。新制度财政分权理论以公共选择理论为起点,对财政分权的激励机制设计问题的研究突破了传统分权理论的分析框架。在此基础上,整合了财政分权政策制定的规范和实证方法的交易成本政治学构成了研究方法上的创新。     

财政转移支付法的公平正义理念解读

实现社会公平正义是构建和谐社会的内在要求,法治尤其是财政法治是实现社会公平正义最为有效的制度保障,以基本公共服务均等化为己任的财政转移支付法,寓正义于法之中,明确"公平通过政府",在更加注重社会公平的收入分配原则下,从地区财政均衡与阶层收入平衡两个层面追求社会公平正义,是天然地以实现社会公平正义为宗旨之法律制度.在和谐社会、公平正义、财政法治的语境下,财政法在构建社会主义和谐社会中蕴含社会公平正义理念,我国财政转移支付立法的理论基础和制度建设,对构建社会主义和谐社会具有重要的理论价值和现实意义.     

基于包邮效应的西部地区电商经济发展助推研究

与东、中部相比,目前我国西部地区网购贸易逆差非常明显,西部地区地方政府如何干预才能改善这种不平衡?本文从导致网购失败的邮费这一关键因素入手,采用行为经济学理论分析包邮效应,发现区域性无条件包邮对相应地区的电商经济发展具有重要的促进作用.国内的网购实际数据支持该观点.据此行为经济学规律,提出西部地区地方政府可通过精确的包邮补贴助推本地电商经济发展.     

High in the Cold,Thin Air: Risks and Benefits

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to familiarize health professionals with the clinical manifestations of illness encountered by healthy subjects upon acute exposure to high altitude. Acute mountain sickness (AMS) consists of mild (headache, lethargy, anorexia) and severe (pulmonary and cerebral edema) forms which are probably a continuum of the adverse effects of hypoxia. The former occurs usually at more than 6000 feet, and is self-limited with rest and analgesia; the latter occurs at more than 12,000 feet, can be rapidly fatal, and must be treated with descent and/or oxygen. Acetazolamide may provide prophylaxis for mild symptoms; Lasix and morphine should not be used for severe AMS unless close monitoring is available. The etiology of AMS is not clear but may be related to one's ventilatory response or the response of the pulmonary and cerebral vasculature to hypoxia.