中国人口转变的风险前瞻

根据历史的经验和预测,中国人口转变既带来了人口红利,也带来了人口负债和人口风险.研究集中讨论了伴随人口转变而来的人口发展风险问题,概括了人口转变的六大特点以及人口发展的九大风险.独生子女家庭本质上是风险家庭,独生子女社会本质上是风险社会,一个人口学意义的风险社会正不依我们的意志为转移而在形成和发展中.1996年,中国成为人口转变意义上的风险社会,2016年后将演变为高风险社会.但和谐社会拒绝不安全的人口转变.成功的人口转变需要坚守计划生育的底线伦理和重建坚强有力的家庭结构."城乡统开二胎"是值得尊重的"底线生育权",是规避人口发展风险的重要政策选择.     

The Working Families’ Tax Credit and Some European Tax Reforms in A Collective Setting

A framework for simplified implementation of the collective model of labor supply decisions is presented in the context of fiscal reforms in the UK. Through its collective form the model accounts for the well known problem of distribution between wallet and purse, a broadly debated issue which has so far been impossible to model due to the limitations of the unitary model of household behavior. A calibrated data set is used to model the effects of introducing two forms of the Working Families’ Tax Credit. We also summarize results of estimations and calibrations obtained using the same methodology on data from five other European countries. The results underline the importance of taking account of the intrahousehold decision process and suggest that who receives government transfers does matter from the point of view of labor supply and welfare of household members. They also highlight the need for more research into models of household behavior.

基本公共服务、财政分权与县域经济发展

本文以经济增长、产业结构升级、城乡收入收敛为县域经济发展的主要衡量指标,同时在考虑地区异质性特征的基础上,实证研究基本公共服务和财政分权对县域经济发展的影响。基于河南省108个县2005-2015年面板数据,使用动态空间计量模型及面板数据模型的实证结果显示：从整体上看,基本公共服务水平提升与财政分权有助于县域经济发展;从按财政属性进行县域分类的视角看,上述支撑作用主要表现在不具有特殊财政属性的普通县层面;从按经济水平分类视角看,这种支撑作用主要作用于经济基础好的中心县与经济落后的农区县;从按地理位置分类视角看,临近市辖区的县更好的发挥了上述支撑作用,形成了依托市辖区发展的“溢出效应”。     

Is the Current Account Deficit a Problem for Romania?

The current account deficit of Romania, both significant in size and persistent, has been a worrying issue affecting the country’s economic and financial macro-stability also in the medium and long term. This paper sets out to review the causes of that phenomenon and its coverage resources during the last 2 years, 2006 and 2007, while the final part deals with the potential developments of said parameters during the post European Union accession period, as well as of their respective influential factors.

Discrete choice models of labour supply,behavioural microsimulation and the Spanish tax reforms

The aim of the present study is to show the potential of behavioural microsimulation models as powerful tools for the ex ante evaluation of public policies. We analyse the impact of recent Spanish income tax reforms upon efficiency and household and social welfare and study the effects of various (basic-income and vital-minimum) flat tax schemes. The analysis is performed using a microsimulation model in which labour supply is explicitly taken into account. Instead of following the traditional continuous approach (Hausman, Labour supply, Aaron and Pechman (eds.), How Taxes Affect Economic Behaviour, The Brooking Institution, Washington, DC, 1981; Econometrica, 53: 1255–1282, 1985; Taxes and labour supply, Auerbach and Feldstein, (eds.), Handbook of Public Economics, North-Holland, Amsterdam, vol. 1, 1979), we estimate the direct utility function employing the methodology proposed by Aaberge et al. (Scand. J. Econ., 97: 635–659, 1995) and Van Soest (J. Hum. Resour., 30: 63–88, 1995). We maintain population heterogeneity by applying a social welfare analysis to the complete sample, rather than merely focusing on the active population. The source of our data is a sample of Spanish individuals in the 1995 wave of the EC Household Panel. We find that the redistribution policies considered have only had a minor impact on economic efficiency but, by contrast, have significantly affected social welfare. An erratum to this article can be found at     

甘肃省分县人均耕地警戒值空间差异分析

耕地警戒值是影响政府土地管理部门加强耕地保护执法力度和国民建立耕地安全意识、参与性保护耕地的重要指标。以甘肃省87个县区为基本单元,计算了人均耕地警戒值、耕地压力指数和耕地盈余/赤字量,通过空间自相关分析和空间聚类,研究了人均耕地警戒值的县际空间分异。结果表明：2009年甘肃省人均耕地警戒值区域差异明显,Moran’s I值为0.3699,呈空间显著集簇分布特征,空间格局存在＂俱乐部趋同＂现象。全省耕地管理划分为3个激励-约束级;耕地盈余量最大的县是武威市凉州区,尚有35个县用于生产食物的耕地面积为赤字。     

中国对日文化贸易逆差问题研究

中日双方拥有广泛的文化贸易基础,但在当下中日文化贸易中,中国却处于逆差地位。通过对中、日文化产业发展特点的研究表明,中国文化贸易处于劣势的主要原因是文化产品单一、文化人才缺乏、文化创作成本过高、文化政策支持不足。为扭转中国文化贸易竞争力弱的局面,我国应开发具有品牌效应的文化产品,培养文化创意人才,构建完善的融资体系,加强对网络知识产权的保护以及在全社会营造本土文化情感。     

中国的财政支出与城乡收入差距

 当前我国城乡收入差距正呈现日益扩大的趋势,导致出现这种局面的原因是多方面的,其中,政府的财政投入不足是一个重要方面。但政府增加财政支出是否能有效引导农民收入增长并缩小城乡收入差距呢？我们采用动态面板数据模型和系统广义矩(system-GMM)估计方法的研究表明,这取决于地方政府在追求本地GDP高速增长的政绩最大化条件下,利用自身财政自主权所选择的不同支出结构——在财政分权的背景下,即使财政投入总量增加了,城乡收入差距也未必会缩小,只有倾向于农业投入以及科教文卫支出增加的政府财政支出结构才能有效减轻城乡收入差距。     

金融危机下政府财政对就业的影响及作用研究——以印度与俄罗斯两国的做法为启示

就业不仅是经济问题,还是政治问题和社会问题。尽管各国具体国情不同,但在解决就业问题上都采取了相似的财政支出措施。当前的世界性金融危机无疑给各国的就业带来了巨大的冲击。我国解决就业问题时,应对比和借鉴各国在就业财政支出上的成功做法和经验,从加大投入,增加就业岗位,完善就业服务,强化职业培训等方面入手,以期实现充分就业。