跨文化交流中中国影视文化逆差现象分析

在经济、文化全球化的背景下,文化交流成为学术界研究的重点对象。目前,由于中国的文化竞争力较弱,文化贸易依然存在比较大的逆差,在影视文化方面尤为严重,它极大地影响着中国国家形象的建构及在国际关系中的地位。在国际文化全球化的大趋势下,影视文化交流如何改变逆差现象,由单向交往向双向交流发展,已成为中国跨文化影视交流中亟待解决的问题。     

The G20's engagement with civil society: participation without contestation?

ABSTRACT

With global governance experiencing a democratic deficit, the G20's formalized engagement with civil society – the C20 – seems to be an anomaly. However, there is a gap between the G20's rhetoric and practice, with the C20 incorporating civil society organizations (CSOs) into the G20, while also limiting their ability to contribute to its agenda. This article attempts make sense of this gap by analysing the C20 through the modes of participation framework, arguing it represents an attempt to organize and manage social conflicts emerging from civil society, but do so in a way that constrains its ability to contest G20 policy. The article analyses the ways in which the C20 is designed to do so, as well as CSO strategies to overcome these constraints. While these strategies increase CSO's leverage and independence, their effectiveness remains shaped by G20 practices and the underlying political economy structures of the global economy.     

Debt threshold for fiscal sustainability assessment in emerging economies

This paper explores the debt threshold for fiscal sustainability assessment for 14 emerging economies during the period 1999–2016. The threshold point is identified as the level which, if exceeded, promptly raises sovereign risk to an unsustainable level. As such, we employ a panel threshold analysis to the determination of debt limit, which can serve as a distinctive feature from other studies on fiscal sustainability. Our results demonstrate that non-Latin American economies are considered to be sustainable in the short run, as their debts remain below the threshold bounds of 40–55% of GDP. However, the long-run sustainability risk may emerge from a continuous upward trend in debt paths, implying the need for rebuilding fiscal buffers. It is important to emphasize that fiscal sustainability is far more challenging for most Latin-American economies. This is indicated by their debt accumulation beyond the threshold level of roughly 35% of GDP which is relatively lower than that estimated for the other countries. Indeed, during times of high debt, emerging countries in Latin America also face higher default risk since their sovereign risk premium respond more strongly to debt rise. Their paths toward fiscal sustainability, hence, requires an immediate imposition of strict fiscal discipline to relieve the debt pressure.     

Has Germany’s temporary VAT rates cut as part of the COVID-19 fiscal stimulus boosted growth?

On 3 June 2020, the German government announced a EUR 130 billion fiscal stimulus package to stimulate market demand and jumpstart the economy in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown in the spring of 2020. The most prominent measure of this package is an unconventional fiscal policy in the form of a temporary VAT rates cut for six months, from 1 July to 31 December 2020. Employing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework, we study the efficiency of the VAT tax rates cut for ameliorating the consequences of the pandemic recession. The simulation of the calibrated DSGE model yields a tax policy-induced real GDP increase of about 0.3% points for 2020.     

Testing Fiscal Sustainability via Strong Convergence of Gaussian Random Variables

We prove, via the Borel-Cantelli lemma, that for every sequence of Gaussian random variables the combination of convergence in expectation and decreasing variances at fractional-polynomial rate implies strong convergence. This result has an important consequence for macroeconomic stochastic infinite-horizon models: The almost sure transversality condition (i.e., fiscal sustainability with probability one) is satisfied if (a) the discounted levels of net liabilities are Gaussian-distributed with fractional-polynomially decaying variances and (b) their means converge to zero. If (a) holds but (b) fails, the transversality condition will be almost surely violated. Hence, (a) and (b) constitute a test for almost sure fiscal sustainability.     

中国财政政策通货膨胀效应的实证研究

 全球金融危机使各国财政赤字激增,通胀问题日益严重,通胀治理成为各国关注的焦点。与货币数量理论相比,新近发展的价格水平决定的财政理论（FTPL）对于解释通货膨胀的成因和提出通胀治理建议更有优势。本文基于FTPL视角,选取我国1982—2011年度数据,应用状态空间模型识别政策在价格决定中的作用区制,结果表明1982—1996为M区制,1997—2011为F区制;再选取1997—2011季度数据,应用SVAR法结合货币政策研究F区制下财政政策对通货膨胀的短期和长期动态效应,实证研究表明财政政策比货币政策对通胀的影响更大,而且财政政策对通货膨胀有长期效应,结合中国经济的实际情况,我们认为货币政策不是导致近年来通胀的主要成因,抑制通胀要依靠财政政策,应实行相机选择的财政政策来实现物价稳定和经济可持续发展的宏观调控目标。     

新中国成立以来财税改革与户籍制度的三个 10 年变迁

户籍制度自建立以来历经 60 年的演变,形成了具有福利粘附作用的体制。 文章以财税体制与户籍制度的关系为切入点,指出财税体制约束及其福利分配安排对户籍制度是否成为问题具有根源性影响。 一是揭示了城乡二元户籍制度于 1958 年正式建立的重要背景是 1950 年代接受外部战略援助形成的军重工业内生资本增密及其预算硬约束对中央财税经济的沉重压力,这个硬约束导致二元户籍制度延续到 1980 年代初的财税体制改革。 二是论述了 1985 年财税体制改革的阶段性调整与户籍制度同步变化的三个 10 年变迁。 三是讨论了近十几年农民转户意愿明显低落的原因,即 2004 年农业税费改革以来国家财税金支持三农政策已经部分消解了城乡差距,农村户口实际的和预期的福利均大大提升。 四十年改革中,粘附了福利的二元户籍制度难以单独突破的原因,在于其与财税体制改革的不同阶段变化存在较强相关性。 新时代的户籍改革研究也需要创新,从关注过去城乡二元户籍矛盾转向生产过剩压力下城市间产业升级竞争,后者导致吸引精英、排斥低端的户籍歧视。 相应地,只有建立财税金统一的制度体系才能减少城市间福利差异。     

我国分税制财政体制的创新研究

1994年实行的分税制 ,对我国的改革开放和经济发展起到了极大的推动和促进作用 ,特别是 2 0 0 2年实行的所得税制改革更是对分税制财政体制的一次重大的制度创新。然而 ,随着我国社会主义市场经济体制的不断完善和发展 ,当前财政体制的弊端也日益显露出来 ,新一轮的制度创新已成为必然。     

凯恩斯赤字财政政策的启示

对凯恩斯赤字财政政策在西方国家实施情况加以分析 ,指出我国继续实施积极的财政政策应注意的一些问题 ,以避免西方国家在长期实施赤字财政政策之后所出现的恶果