Long‐Term Debt and Optimal Policy in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

The fiscal theory says that the price level is determined by the ratio of nominal debt to the present value of real primary surpluses. I analyze long‐term debt and optimal policy in the fiscal theory. I find that the maturity structure of the debt matters. For example, it determines whether news of future deficits implies current inflation or future inflation. When long‐term debt is present, the government can trade current inflation for future inflation by debt operations; this tradeoff is not present if the government rolls over short‐term debt. The maturity structure of outstanding debt acts as a “budget constraint” determining which periods' price levels the government can affect by debt variation alone. In addition, debt policy—the expected pattern of future state‐contingent debt sales, repurchases and redemptions—matters crucially for the effects of a debt operation. I solve for optimal debt policies to minimize the variance of inflation. I find cases in which long‐term debt helps to stabilize inflation. I also find that the optimal policy produces time series that are similar to U.S. surplus and debt time series. To understand the data, I must assume that debt policy offsets the inflationary impact of cyclical surplus shocks, rather than causing price level disturbances by policy‐induced shocks. Shifting the objective from price level variance to inflation variance, the optimal policy produces much less volatile inflation at the cost of a unit root in the price level; this is consistent with the stabilization of U.S. inflation after the gold standard was abandoned.     

The origin of semilingualism: Nils-Erik Hansegård and the cult of the mother tongue

‘Semilingualism’ is one of the most questionable theories produced in the language sciences. Yet, little is known about its origins. We present a critical account of the history of semilingualism, tracing its roots in the work of Nils Erik Hansegård, (1918–2002), inaugural chair of Sámi at Umeå University (1975–1979), who developed a theory of semilingualism (halvspråkighet) in the 1960s. We show how Hansegård theorized semilingualism using ideas from Nazi German linguistics, producing an unforgiving theory of linguistic pathology directed at minoritized bilinguals in Sweden's far north.     

货币政策与财政政策的分区域产业效应比较

 在具有总量效应的同时,货币政策和财政政策在产业效应方面各自表现如何？本文运用1990～2008年东、中、西部地区的动态面板数据模型进行实证分析,结果显示：东部与中部地区的货币政策和财政政策都存在产业效应,而西部地区货币政策和财政政策的效应均不理想,同时,货币政策和财政政策对三次产业的效应都存在明显的区域性。并且,结合相关理论,文章从产业和区域两个层面对实证结果予以分析,揭示出产业间在增量资本产出率和政府扶持力度以及区域间在银行集中度和基础设施投资方面存在的差异,是实证结果的主要致因。     

The origins of the public debt of Italy: Geographically dispersed interests?

In this paper we reconstruct the macro regional government deficits of Italy and find that the aggregate deficit resulting from our estimates captures quite well the entire dynamics of the Italian national public deficit. This new data set shows that the ultimate cause of the accumulation of public debt of Italy lies in the extraordinary fiscal imbalance of the Southern regions. The new data allow us to test empirically a simple Common Pool model, augmented by a variable measuring the political influence of each macro region in the Government, to verify the existence of a geographically dispersed interests issue for the Italian case. Our measure of political influence turns out to significantly explain the regions’ deficits also when controlling for population and income gaps. In addition, using a J-test approach, we find that including the predictions of the Common Pool–Pork Barrel regional model into a general model of the Italian national deficit turns out to greatly increase its explanatory power. The results call for deep institutional reforms of the fiscal decentralization so far implemented in Italy.     

对中国农产品贸易逆差与应对技术壁垒的思考

我国农产品贸易首现逆差,既有内在原因,又有外在原因。WTO条件下,面对当今愈演愈烈的TBT,我国农产品的持续发展面临新的挑战。积极应对农产品国际贸易中的TBT,构建我国农产品TBT体系,有利于我国农产品产业持续发展。应对TBT是一个复杂而系统性的工程,形势紧迫,需要政府和农产品企业双管齐下,统一协调性地采取对策。     

终身教育发展：财税激励及政策取向

为研究现行税收政策对我国终身教育发展的激励作用,采用文献法和比较分析法对现行税收政策扶持与促进终身教育发展进行定性研究,对现行税收激励政策在促进和鼓励终身教育发展中取得的积极作用以及存在的问题与不足进行评析。由此说明,财税政策对支持终身教育有促进与激励作用。同时,运用财税政策调控工具激励我国终身教育的持续发展,进而针对性提出支持我国终身教育发展的财税激励政策建议。     

Accountability in the Shadow of Hierarchy: The Horizontal Accountability of Agencies

In the Netherlands, new accountability arrangements are created as remedies for the accountability deficit of agencies. These arrangements are of a ‘horizontal’ nature, as the agencies account for their behaviour towards accountees that are not their hierarchical superiors: clients, stakeholders or peers. This paper provides an inventory and qualitative assessment of horizontal accountability arrangements. It is argued that they have added value because they stimulate learning. However, horizontal accountability is not a substitute for hierarchical accountability. Horizontal accountability arrangements operate ‘in the shadow of hierarchy’: they gain significance through complex interactions with traditional forms of accountability.

Postal Savings for National Development—The Experience of Japan and Future Perspective in a Globalized World

Global economic forces have been prompting the institutional changes in the public sector based on the market-oriented principles and such changes greatly have affected the postal savings system in Japan. Postal savings system’s public roles were fundamentally changed because of current administrative reform undertakings. In this article, firstly the role of collecting savings from ordinary citizens for fiscal policies was reviewed and the assessment of this public role is conducted. Secondly, abolishment of Universal Service Obligation due to the privatization of the postal savings system and the possible occurrence of Financial Exclusion are analyzed.

The sovereign crisis and Italy’s potential output

We evaluate the effects of the European sovereign crisis on Italian potential output (natural output, in the absence of nominal rigidities) by simulating a New Keynesian model. Our results are as follows. First, the 2011–2013 recession subtracted 1.6 percentage points from potential output growth and widened the output gap. Second, the 2013 reforms limited the reduction in output capacity to 1.4 points and enhanced long-run growth by 3. Third, once a balanced budget is achieved in the medium term, reductions in either labor or capital income taxes would boost potential output growth by 0.2 points per year.     

Fiscal harmonization in view of the Euro adoption: Economic implications for Poland

In this paper, we investigate the ex ante effects of fiscal policy harmonization that might be necessary for the adoption of the common currency on economic growth in Poland using a neoclassical dynamic two-sector general equilibrium model. We study two fiscal policy scenarios. In the first one, we adjust all taxes to German and EU-27 levels, respectively, while in the second one, we change only consumption taxes to German and EU-27 levels. We find that in the first scenario, the current Polish taxes yield the highest rate of growth due to lower capital taxation. However, in the second scenario, German and EU-27 taxes yield the highest rate of growth due to the lower consumption tax on capital-intensive good. From a policy perspective, our results suggest that fiscal policy with lower taxes on capital and capital-intensive goods can generate a higher rate of growth in the long-run. In the case of fiscal harmonization, our findings propose adopting only German or EU-27 consumption tax structure into the Polish tax system.