Implicit public debt thresholds: An operational proposal

Gauging the public debt-to-GDP ratio a country can sustain in the medium-run without putting fiscal sustainability at risk is a question of key relevance for policy-makers. Deviations from a safe level of debt should be watched over in order to take corrective measures. In this paper we make a proposal for an operational characterization of the “prudent debt level”. To do so, we use standard methods based on Vector Autoregressions to compute the probability that the public debt ratio exceeds a given threshold, using the Spanish case as an example. The resulting probabilities are highly and positively correlated with market risk assessment, measured by the spread with respect to the German bond. Our estimation of the “prudent debt level” is obtained as the debt-to-GDP ratio that maximizes the correlation between the probability of passing a pre-specified debt threshold and the spread. The so-obtained implicit debt threshold or “prudent debt level”, which is consistent with the medium-term debt-to-GDP ratio anchor of 60% of GDP, presents several advantages as a complement to existing DSA toolkits.     

The perfect storm? How to explain the rise of intergovernmental conflicts in Spain? (1984–2014)

As in other federal-like countries, intergovernmental relations in Spain are characterised by a series of conflicts between central and regional governments. But, which factors explain this dynamic of contention? This investigation operationalises intergovernmental conflicts through a specific dataset constituted by the volume of contestations between regional and central executives (and vice versa) in Spain before the Constitutional Court. This research demonstrates that from 1984 to 2014 the periods of absolute majority at the Congress and the victory of peripheral nationalist parties at the head of autonomous communities increased the level of intergovernmental contestations.     

Public investment in care services in Turkey: Promoting employment & gender inclusive growth

Recent policy debates on macroeconomic tools to counteract the prolonged global economic recession point to the potential of fiscal policies with appropriate sectoral targets for simultaneously boosting effective demand while alleviating inequalities through employment generation. This paper contributes to the debate by pointing to the social care services sector –in particular early childhood education and care (ECEC) — as an effective target of fiscal spending for robust employment generation and gender inclusive growth. We use a macro-micro simulation model to examine the aggregate and gender employment impact of increasing public expenditures on ECEC services, an underdeveloped sector in Turkey versus physical infrastructure and construction, a common target of stimulatory spending. Our methodological approach combines input-output analysis on aggregate employment effects with a statistical microsimulation approach to assess distributional outcomes. We find that an expansion of ECEC services creates not only significantly more jobs but also does so in a more gender-equitable and fiscally sustainable way than the a construction boom.     

省际间财力差距的地区分解和结构分解

 本文以1997年～2005年全国31省级财政数据为样本,运用基尼系数和GE指数分解法对省级财力差异进行了分析,结果发现：1997年至2005年间我国省际间财力差距70%以上来源于地区内部,并且地区内部差距呈现扩大趋势;对省级收入来源基尼系数分解表明对财力差异贡献最大的是本级财政收入,总转移支付解释了财力差异的约40%,税收返还和专项转移支付是造成省际间差异的主要原因,唯一起到均等化作用的是农村税费改革转移支付,旨在均衡地区间财力差距的一般性转移支付并没有起到相应的作用。     

Combatting voter ignorance: a vertical model of epistocratic voting

In light of recent political events, prominent scholars have argued that voters ignorant of the issues should be disqualified from taking part in decisions that have the potential to alter political landscapes. As convincing as this literature is in highlighting voter ignorance, it fails to differentiate between local, state, and federal elections and how levels of political knowledge are often scale-dependent. If the level of median voter ignorance is not uniform from one level of government to the next, then neither can the reforms proposed to combat it. In this article, I adapt Bell’s vertical model of democratic meritocracy to argue that the larger the election, the more complex the issues, the more explicit the epistocratic safeguards needed.     

单一制与联邦制下的行政监察效能比较——对传统认识偏差的两点修正

行政监察系行政权力系统内部上级对下级行使权力过程和结果的察看与督促,因其明显的行政系统内部性特征而遭遇传统权力监控理论视域的不信任偏见,同时传统观念对单一制政府与联邦制政府下的权力监控效能优劣也存在某些认识偏差。从行政监察效能的角度切入考察,可以对这两种既有认识偏差做出适当的修正。     

浅析公共财政与转移支付制度

公共财政与转移支付制度的建设，是我国经济界和理论界讨论的热点话题。借鉴发达国家发展经验，建立公共财政体系框架，可以说是改革开放以来中国财政发展史上的一座里程碑。建立与市场经济体制相适应的公共财政，必须有与预算管理体制相适应的转移支付制度。转移支付制度是实现公共财政的最佳选择，也是国家干预调节经济运行、抑制市场经济自发冲动的最佳途径。在这方面，我国理论界的认识与发达国家相比是有差距的，还有待于加强和深化改革。     

美国宪法“联邦主义”原则的流变——兼论联邦主义原则分权与制衡作用

“联邦主义”原则是1787年美国宪法的基本原则之一,它的确立大大加强了中央政府的权力,从而使美利坚合众国由一个松散的邦联成为统一而稳固的联邦。几百年来,美国的政体没有因联邦权力的增强走上中央独裁的道路,相反美国政体的民主是有目共睹的;其中重要的原因就是联邦主义的内涵并不是单纯的中央权力的加强,而是联邦权力与州权力的交织与互动的过程。正是这两种权力的相互牵制,才使美国的权力机制的运作统一而又不至僵化。     

财政政策对提高我国气候变化适应能力的作用研究

减缓和适应,是应对气候变化的两种措施,国际气候合作集中在减缓方面,但进展缓慢,气候变化趋势将进一步加剧,因此,提高我国的气候变化适应能力变得非常重要。本文研究了自发性适应存在的局限性,指出仅仅依靠自发性适应不能有效配置资源,还会出现新的分配效应,需要政府对此进行有效干预。财政政策作为政府干预资源配置的重要手段,在适应气...     

全球化视阈下联邦政治体制的新发展

各层级政府间的权力划分深刻影响联邦政治体制的运行方式,宪政分权是联邦制的起点而不是联邦制的归宿。由于权责的对称程度不同,联邦政治体制有对称性和非对称性两种模型。在经济全球化的视阈下,对称性的联邦制国家中央权力逐渐加强,联邦政治体制向单一制方向发展;非对称性的联邦制国家地方权力逐渐加强,联邦政治体制向邦联制方向发展;反映在国际舞台上,两种模型演化出了许多新变体,表现为不同的联邦政治体制模式。