对外援助与经济增长关系研究述评

国际援助既是外交行为,也是经济行为。在外交和政治目标之外,援助对一国经济增长的影响也是研究者关注的核心问题。学术界和政界曾一度迷信对外援助给经济增长所带来的直接正面影响。然而,现实中巨额的外援并未给第三世界受援对象带来期待中的可喜变化,学界开始反思,有一种倾向认为援助不仅未能给经济带来正向影响,反而有损经济增长。然而,这类结论有矫枉过正之嫌,此后越来越多的研究集中于考察援助未能有效促进增长的内外因素。这些探讨都试图找到对外援助与经济增长之间的普遍性联系,消弭了援助本身和受援对象的特殊性;在研讨援助与经济增长的关系时,都倾向于从受援对象方面来寻找原因和证据;现有的研究建立在传统援助的数据基础之上,忽视了来自发展中的新兴援助者的援助实践,而新兴援助者正给援助与经济增长提供越来越多正相关数据,有望推进该领域的进一步研究。     

西方视野中的中国对外援助研究

伴随着中国对外援助金额和影响的扩大,西方学者开始关注中国对外援助这一议题,并在过去不到十年的时间内有了一定数量的研究成果.文章试图对迄今为止国外学者和发展研究机构的中国对外援助研究进行全面系统的梳理和回顾,分析其视角和关注要点,以为国内学者未来的研究提供借鉴.整体而言,西方学者的相关研究可以概括为三个方面的内容:对中国对外援助概况的客观介绍,对中国对外援助方式和影响的评价,以及探讨中国在国际援助体系中的作用及与传统援助国的关系和未来.     

从斯图加特大学的发展看德国高等教育百年兴衰

结合斯图加特大学的发展简史,论述了近百年来德国高等教育在多变的政治风云中曲折发展的过程。     

Why Youths Drop out of High School: The Impact of Preferences,Opportunities, and Abilities

In this paper, we develop and structurally estimate a sequential model of high school attendance and work decisions. The model's estimates imply that youths who drop out of high school have different traits than those who graduate—they have lower school ability and/or motivation, they have lower expectations about the rewards from graduation, they have a comparative advantage at jobs that are done by nongraduates, and they place a higher value on leisure and have a lower consumption value of school attendance. We also found that working while in school reduces school performance. However, policy experiments based on the model's estimates indicate that even the most restrictive prohibition on working while attending high school would have only a limited impact on the high school graduation rates of white males.     

Estimating and testing conditional sums of means in high dimensional multivariate binary data

We study the estimation of the strength of signals corresponding to the high valued observations in multivariate binary data. These problems can arise in a variety of areas, such as mass spectrometry or function magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), where the underlying signals could be interpreted as a proxy for biochemical or physiological response to a condition or treatment. More specifically, the problem we consider involves estimating the sum of a collection of binomial probabilities corresponding to large values of the associated binomial random variables. We emphasize the case where the dimension is much greater than the sample size, and most of the probabilities of the events of interest are close to zero. Two estimation approaches are proposed: conditional maximum likelihood and nonparametric empirical Bayes. We use these estimators to construct a test of homogeneity for two groups of high dimensional multivariate binary data. Simulation studies on the size and power of the proposed tests are given, and the tests are demonstrated using mass spectrometry data from a breast cancer study.     

《西儒耳目资》概念术语辨源

从语言学史角度探讨《西儒耳目资》中概念术语的来源,着重分析这些术语与中国传统音韵学的关系,兼论该书的语音学说。《西儒耳目资》不是一本简单地给汉字标注拉丁字音的书。从书中大量新概念和术语中可以发现,该书既引入了西方语音学概念,又吸收了中国传统音韵学说,体现了特定历史下中西语言学说思想的奇妙结合。     

哈尔滨军事工程学院的筹建与苏联援助(1952-1953)

20世纪50年代初,苏联援助创办了新中国第一所高等军事工程技术学院———哈尔滨军事工程学院。苏联军事教育模式对哈军工的筹建,产生了深刻影响。苏联顾问对于中国军事科技教育体系乃至中国国防正规化现代化建设,具有不可磨灭的历史功绩。     

对口援建与羌族文化重建——以山东援建北川为例

羌族地区的灾后文化重建是在国家的统筹下,在受灾地区民众的诉求基础上,在社会各界呼吁保护羌族传统文化的舆论中,通过援建省市的具体实施而实现的。作为援建方的山东,一方面根据国家的相关意见、条例、方案的文化保护、文化重建规定进行援建;另一方面,他们又根据自身对羌族文化的认识和理解以及当时、当地的实际情况,进行了文化的援建与重建工作。在承认羌族地区文化重建取得巨大成就的同时,还应当看到文化重建中政府意志与学者呼声的疏离,援建后的北川羌族传统文化呈现出同质化、一体化、文化符号泛化等问题。     

US foreign aid and economic policy concessions*

Why do donors continue to provide foreign aid despite its failure to help poor countries over the past several decades? While some scholars argue that foreign aid is purely for humanitarian purposes, others assert that such aid serves as a tool to pressure recipient countries into accepting policy concessions. In this study, we subject these arguments to empirical testing using a dataset that integrates the amount of US aid and economic policies of recipient countries for 1995–2012. The findings suggest that aid decisions correspond to the interests of the United States, such as policy concessions in economic and business liberalization. However, an increase in US aid is not directly associated with further economic reforms in recipient countries. We conclude that US foreign aid programmes are strategic in nature and successful not in alleviating economic problems in recipient countries but, at the very least, in buying their policy compliance.     

Humanitarian action in developing countries: who evaluates who?

Humanitarian NGOs and intergovernmental organisations are usually assessed by their funders, not their beneficiaries. In most cases, their evaluation relies on interviews with “professionals”, neglects field surveys, does not use opinion polls and seldom tries to assess the socioeconomic impact of relief. Moreover, it is commissioned by stakeholders at the risk of being judge and party. Such a system brings several conflicts of interest: (1) it needs to be approved by those who are evaluated and so does not deal with “bad eggs” that refuse to be investigated; (2) it produces biased analysis, does not name names and passes over fundamental issues; (3) it is very formal and technocratic, if not meaningless; (4) it does not help to learn from past mistakes. Hence this article proposes a framework to develop third party evaluations. It is suggested that, to be really independent, evaluation should neither be paid or commissioned by stakeholders, i.e. NGOs and institutional funders. To facilitate learning, its methodology and its results must also be available to the general public. To be accepted by those who are evaluated, finally, it should highlight the difficulties, explain the political context, acknowledge its subjectivity, recognize its limits, focus on processes more than results and develop qualitative analysis out of quantitative indicators.