Statistical Inference Enables Bad Science; Statistical Thinking Enables Good Science

ABSTRACT

Scientific research of all kinds should be guided by statistical thinking: in the design and conduct of the study, in the disciplined exploration and enlightened display of the data, and to avoid statistical pitfalls in the interpretation of the results. However, formal, probability-based statistical inference should play no role in most scientific research, which is inherently exploratory, requiring flexible methods of analysis that inherently risk overfitting. The nature of exploratory work is that data are used to help guide model choice, and under these circumstances, uncertainty cannot be precisely quantified, because of the inevitable model selection bias that results. To be valid, statistical inference should be restricted to situations where the study design and analysis plan are specified prior to data collection. Exploratory data analysis provides the flexibility needed for most other situations, including statistical methods that are regularized, robust, or nonparametric. Of course, no individual statistical analysis should be considered sufficient to establish scientific validity: research requires many sets of data along many lines of evidence, with a watchfulness for systematic error. Replicating and predicting findings in new data and new settings is a stronger way of validating claims than blessing results from an isolated study with statistical inferences.     

Fraternally yours: the union architecture of Oskar Stonorov and Walter Reuther

For architect Oskar G. Stonorov (1905–70) and labour leader Walter P. Reuther (1907–70) unions were not simply instruments for collective bargaining. They were also agents for transforming established social practices that denied the working class access to decent housing, parks and art; discriminated against African Americans; and destroyed the natural environment. Architecture and site planning were key to this transformation as they addressed concerns of social justice and environmental quality. Stonorov and Reuther shared an aesthetic agenda as well – to expose workers to the emancipating beauty of modern design – as they believed well-designed housing contributed to both their personal lives and productivity at work. From 1941 until their deaths in 1970 they devised plans for workers' housing and town planning, sculpture, urban renewal and environmentally sensitive site planning. They sought to involve workers in the design process, mark union territory on former elite-owned properties, give control of housing production to organized labour and advance workers' educational opportunities. This article examines their architectural endeavours as part of a labour narrative and as an index of the turbulent social and political changes taking place from the inter-war years to 1970.     

On the consistency and the robustness in model selection criteria

Abstract

In the model selection problem, the consistency of the selection criterion has been often discussed. This paper derives a family of criteria based on a robust statistical divergence family by using a generalized Bayesian procedure. The proposed family can achieve both consistency and robustness at the same time since it has good performance with respect to contamination by outliers under appropriate circumstances. We show the selection accuracy of the proposed criterion family compared with the conventional methods through numerical experiments.     

零膨胀计数数据函数型部分变系数模型

在实际数据分析中经常会遇到零膨胀计数数据作为响应变量与函数型随机变量和随机向量作为预测变量相关联。本文考虑函数型部分变系数零膨胀模型 (FPVCZIM),模型中无穷维的斜率函数用函数型主成分基逼近,系数函数用B-样条进行拟合。通过EM 算法得到估计量,讨论其理论性质,在一些正则条件下获得了斜率函数和系数函数估计量的收敛速度。有限样本的Monte Carlo 模拟研究和真实数据分析被用来解释本文提出的方法。     

Testing heteroscedasticity in nonparametric regression

The importance of being able to detect heteroscedasticity in regression is widely recognized because efficient inference for the regression function requires that heteroscedasticity is taken into account. In this paper a simple consistent test for heteroscedasticity is proposed in a nonparametric regression set-up. The test is based on an estimator for the best L ²-approximation of the variance function by a constant. Under mild assumptions asymptotic normality of the corresponding test statistic is established even under arbitrary fixed alternatives. Confidence intervals are obtained for a corresponding measure of heteroscedasticity. The finite sample performance and robustness of these procedures are investigated in a simulation study and Box-type corrections are suggested for small sample sizes.     

品牌、认证与消费者信任倾向——以有机牛奶为例

以山东省570个消费者样本为例,基于中欧比较视角,探究消费者对不同品牌或认证的有机牛奶的信任倾向,并运用结构方程模型分析了消费者信任的前因。结果表明,消费者个体特征、感知价值、有机食品知识及行业环境对消费者信任产生显著正向影响,而食品安全意识和信息交流对信任的影响较为复杂;消费者对中欧品牌或中欧认证的信任存在差异,形成前因也略有不同。提升公众消费信心,应着力于推动有机知识宣传普及、增加消费者体验以及强化行业监管,乳品企业应根据消费者中外品牌或认证信任的差异制定相应的营销策略。     

高校教育精准扶贫模式探究——以华中农业大学精准扶贫建始县为例

教育扶贫是高校精准扶贫地方的主要路径。基于华中农业大学在建始县精准扶贫的实践所取得的成效及遇到的问题,通过对三螺旋理论进行了深化与拓展,构建了以产业为纽带,农户、企业、高校、政府四主体相互作用的四螺旋模型,探索各主体充分发挥优势,协同创新的作用机理,提出基于四螺旋模型的高校精准扶贫地方的新路径,即：找准农户致贫或返贫的原因;高校与政府联动,做好扶贫规划;高校与企业联动,抓好产业建设;加强高校、企业与地方政府联动,攻克难点问题;四主体联动,强化过程管理。     

腐败行为发生与治理——基于班杜拉三方互惠决定模型

腐败行为的产生有诸多原因,既有复杂的社会文化和环境因素,也有腐败行为人的心理因素。要从源头上消除腐败,就必须深入剖析腐败行为产生的诸种因素间的互动逻辑。以美国社会学家班杜拉的三方互惠决定模型为分析框架,可以发现中国的腐败是由特有的社会环境,对权力、角色、行为与关系的错误社会认知以及频发的个体腐败行为三种因素(互动作用)引起的。因此,应从营造健康的社会环境氛围、纠正社会认知偏差这两方面入手,构建三种因素的良性互动关系,从而形成不敢腐、不能腐、不想腐的长效机制。     

The Job Demand-Control (-Support) Model and psychological well-being: a review of 20 years of empirical research

The Job Demand-Control (JDC) model (Karasek, 1979) and the Job Demand-Control-Support (JDCS) model (Johnson, and Hall, 1988) have dominated research on occupational stress in the last 20 years. This detailed narrative review focuses on the JDC(S) model in relation to psychological well-being. It covers research from 63 samples, published in the period 1979-1997. In the review a distinction is drawn between two different hypotheses prevailing in research on the models. According to the strain hypothesis of the JDC model, employees working in a high-strain job (high demands-low control) experience the lowest well-being. The buffer hypothesis states that control can moderate the negative effects of high demands on well-being. Translating these hypotheses to the expanded JDCS model, the iso-strain hypothesis predicts the most negative outcomes among workers in an iso-strain job (high demands-low control-low social support/isolation), whereas the buffer hypothesis states that social support can moderate the negative impact of high strain on well-being. Although the literature gives considerable support for the strain and iso-strain hypotheses, support for the moderating influence of job control and social support is less consistent. The conceptualization of demands and control is a key factor in discriminating supportive from nonsupportive studies. Only aspects of job control that correspond to the specific demands of a given job moderate the impact of high demands on well-being. Furthermore, certain subpopulations appear to be more vulnerable to high (iso)strain, whereas others benefit more from high control. On the basis of the results of this review, suggestions for future research and theoretical development are formulated.     

社会进步与社会秩序的重建——从马克思的社会发展理论看中国模式的生成逻辑

在马克思的社会发展理论中,包含着一个关于社会进步与社会秩序及其相互关系的深刻的理论说明:(1)社会进步的路径有其规律可循,同时社会进步的具体展开过程又是开放性的。(2)人的尺度、物的尺度和人与物相统一的尺度是衡量社会进步的三个基本尺度;在不同的历史时期,衡量社会进步由其主导性尺度,同时尺度又是多样性的;不同种类、层级的进步尺度之间既可能是和谐兼顾的,又可能是矛盾冲突的,而且和谐兼顾与矛盾冲突往往相互交织。(3)社会进步的人的尺度与物的尺度之间的复杂关系,折射出社会进步与社会秩序之间的复杂关系;社会进步对社会秩序的作用具有内在的不确定性,既有积极的重塑作用,又有消极的破坏作用,而且积极作用和消极作用往往相互交织。(4)不但社会进步的物的尺度与人的尺度存在复杂的关系,对这两个评价尺度的评价也是一个十分复杂的问题,对于尺度本身的评价,既要处理好现实评价与理想评价的关系,又要处理好道德评价与历史评价的关系。这个理论说明对于我们认识中国模式的内在生成逻辑具有重要启发意义。